Four reasons why Yankees' offense is off to concerning start: Rookies being rookies, bad depth, more

The Yankees in 2023 are picking up where they left off at the plate to end 2022

Sunday afternoon the New York Yankees did something they had not done all season: they lost a series. The Yankees dropped the rubber game to the Toronto Blue Jays (TOR 5, NYY 1) for their first series loss of 2023. They are 5-1-1 in their seven series and the Yankees were the last team in baseball to lose a series this year.

On Sunday, the Yankees also did something they have done far too often this season: they scored no more than three runs. Sunday was the eighth time in the last 10 games the Yankees failed to score more than three runs. They are averaging 4.23 runs per game in the early going this season, which places them 20th among the 30 teams. Some other Yankees' ranks on offense:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB%	K%
Yankees	.227	.307	.395	30	9.7%	24.6%
MLB rank	25th	21st	17th	6th	11th	22nd

Despite the mediocre offense, the Yankees are 13-9 because their run prevention is so good. They are holding opponents to 3.27 runs per game, second best in baseball behind the Tampa Bay Rays, and that's with Carlos Rodón, Luis Severino, and various relievers on the injured list. The Yankees have done well keeping runs off the board. Generating runs? That's a different story.

"We've got to score more than we have here lately,'' Yankees manager Aaron Boone said following Sunday's loss. "Part of it is we're banged up. We've got to find ways. Right now, we're struggling to roll out a crooked number."

A slow 22-game start on offense would be easy to chalk up to a bad three weeks if it did not look like a continuation of last season. The Yankees averaged 4.88 runs per game in the first half last year. It was 4.02 runs in the second half even with Aaron Judge going nuclear. Yankees other than Judge hit .232/.291/.360 after the All-Star break in 2022. That is very bad.

The Yankees re-signed Judge and Anthony Rizzo over the winter but otherwise did not add any offense from outside the organization. They made an effort to retain Andrew Benintendi and dabbled in the market for a few others, but ultimately spent their money on Rodón, and ran it back on offense. That, obviously, is not working out, or at least hasn't worked out thus far.

Here are four reasons the Yankees rank closer to the bottom of the league than the top in most offensive categories in the early days of the season, and what they can do to get better.

1. Judge has been merely very good

A year ago Judge had one of the most dominant offensive seasons in baseball history. The reigning AL MVP slashed .311/.425/.686 -- his 211 OPS+ was the best by a qualified hitter in a 162-game season since Barry Bonds in 2004 (263 OPS+) -- and hit 62 home runs, a new American League single-season record. It was a once-in-a-generation kind of season.

Early on this season Judge has been very good rather than the game's most dangerous hitter: .244/.344/.500 with six home runs and 31 strikeouts, fifth most in baseball. He enters play Monday in a 5 for 37 (.135) skid. It's hard to score runs when your best hitter is in a slump, and given how much the Yankees rely on Judge, his slumps can cripple the offense.

Expecting Judge to repeat 2022 in 2023 was never realistic. Seasons like that just don't happen very often. That said, Judge has performed at an elite level every year of his career -- he slashed .287/.373/.544 en route to finishing fourth in the AL MVP voting in 2021 -- but this year he's been a notch below that. He'll come around soon enough. Until he does, scoring runs will be a challenge.

2. The rookies are playing like rookies

The Yankees opted against signing a top free agent shortstop the last two offseasons and instead handed the reins to No. 1 prospect Anthony Volpe, who beat out No. 2 prospect Oswald Peraza for the job in spring training. Because of injuries, they're both in the lineup now (Peraza is playing third base). These things always have a way of working themselves out, don't they?

Furthermore, super utility man Oswaldo Cabrera has taken over as the most-of-the-time left fielder. Cabrera exhausted his rookie status last year, though he entered 2023 with 171 big-league plate appearances, so he was hardly a seasoned veteran. That's three rookies in the starting lineup and all three are still trying to settle in at the highest level:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	BB%	K%
Oswaldo Cabrera	70	.224/.243/.313	1	2.9%	27.1%
Oswald Peraza	19	.200/.368/.200	0	15.8%	15.8%
Anthony Volpe	82	.188/.317/.319	2	15.9%	30.5%

All three have played very good defense, including Cabrera (left field) and Peraza (third base) at unfamiliar positions, and Volpe has been much better that his overall slash line lately. He had a 10-game on-base streak snapped Sunday during which he went 9 for 34 (.265) with two homers and eight walks (.405 on-base percentage). That landed Volpe atop the lineup in the leadoff spot.

"We're starting to see those at-bats where it's just like, he's a load up there," Boone told reporters, including the New York Post, after Volpe went 2 for 4 with a walk and a steal last Wednesday. "Because he doesn't chase, makes them work, really stings some balls. Got behind in some counts and battles his way back."

Young hitters often need time, sometimes even a full season or two, to find their way at the big-league level. Even Mike Trout got demoted to Triple-A once upon a time. Cabrera, Peraza, and Volpe are all highly regarded and have bright futures with the Yankees. That said, none of the three have yet to make much of an impact at the plate. Volpe's last 10 games or so and that's pretty much it.

The Yankees have a difficult balancing act. They're committed to the young players and have to deal with the growing pains, but Judge and Gerrit Cole are into their 30s now, and New York's best chance to win a World Series is with those two in their prime. How long do you wait for the kids to settle in? Does their prime align with the rest of the core's? It's a fair question.

Volpe's track record in the minors says he takes 3-4 weeks to adjust to a new level and we've begun to see the adjustments the last week or so. His plate discipline is very strong (top 20 walk rate in MLB) and he's an animal on the bases. Volpe is a perfect 8 for 8 stealing bases and he constantly hops around trying to distract pitchers.

Anthony Volpe is 8-for-8 on stolen-base attempts to start his MLB career pic.twitter.com/ZA9pgJdEWo

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 20, 2023

With the caveat that you never really know with young players, I feel pretty good about Volpe being a productive all-around player this season when it's all said and done. I'm less certain about Cabrera and Peraza, but they're talented, and they're getting playing time. If nothing else, these three bring youth, athleticism, and energy to the lineup. Their best days are ahead of them.

Right now though, all three are still trying to figure things out in the show, and they've been a drag on the offense overall. We're talking about three lineup spots here. Three innings worth of outs each night go to hitters who have not yet been good and may need a few dozen (hundred?) plate appearances before contributing. Not every prospect hits right away and these three haven't. 

3. They have a few injuries

Every team deals with injuries -- all 30 teams have at least three players on the injured list at the moment -- and the Yankees are no different. In addition to Rodón, Severino, and a few relievers, the Yankees are without three regular position players:

• CF Harrison Bader: Has not played in 2023. He's about a week away from returning from oblique strain.
• 3B Josh Donaldson: Recently suffered setback from a hamstring strain. His timetable is uncertain.
• DH Giancarlo Stanton: Expected to miss another six weeks with a hamstring strain.

So yes, the Yankees are dealing with a few injuries, but I also don't buy this as a major reason for their offensive woes. Stanton is the only one of those three you can reliably expect to be an above-average hitter. He smashed three doubles and four homers in 13 games before his injury and the worst season of his career is a 113 OPS+. Losing Stanton takes a bite out of the lineup, for sure.

Bader and Donaldson though? Bader hit .250/.295/.356 around a foot injury last regular season, and while he exploded for five home runs in nine postseason games, that's an outlier. Maybe that's his new normal and he comes back as a Trout 2.0. The track record tells us Bader will be a top-of-the-line defender but only an average-ish hitter. How much does he help the offense?

Offensively, the Yankees are likely better off without Donaldson at this point. He went 2 for 16 (.125) before going on the injured list, and last year he hit .216/.292/.359 in close to 400 plate appearances after June 1. That includes an unplayable .198/.275/.326 against right-handed pitchers. At age 37, Donaldson has resembled a hitter at the end of the line for close to a full year now.

Losing Stanton for six weeks is a significant blow. He can still be an impact hitter, but he also missed roughly 40% of games from 2019-22, so the Yankees can't be surprised Stanton landed on the injured list. Bader and Donaldson are glove-first players and their gloves are very good. How much are their injuries contributing to the offensive problems though? Probably not a whole lot.

4. The Yankees lack depth

Saturday afternoon New York's lineup featured Willie Calhoun in the No. 5 spot and Franchy Cordero in the No. 6 spot and reader, that is a capital-P Problem. With all due respect to Calhoun and Cordero (combined .169/.217/.385 this year), they have no business hitting in the middle of the order for a team that fancies itself a World Series contender, injuries or no injuries.

The Yankees picked up Calhoun on a minor-league contract over the winter and they signed Cordero the day before Opening Day because another team (the Baltimore Orioles, who are 1 1/2 games up on the Yankees in the AL East) decided he wasn't worth a roster spot. This bench offers zero alternatives to what the Yankees put in their starting lineup:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	BB%	K%
C Kyle Higashioka	31	.167/.194/.367	2	3.2%	41.9%
IF/OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa	36	.176/.222/.176	0	5.6%	11.1%
OF Aaron Hicks	27	.125/.222/.125	0	11.1%	33.3%

With Peraza in the big leagues, the Yankees don't have any obvious solutions -- or even band-aids -- in Triple-A. Journeyman Jake Bauers has had a torrid start (.333/.479/.860 with eight home runs) in Triple-A, so maybe he can do better than Calhoun or Cordero. That's not really a solution though. That's throwing something at the wall and hoping it sticks.

This is why the injury excuse falls short for me. Bader and Stanton are no strangers to the injured list and the Yankees not having viable backup plans -- again, they signed Cordero to round out the bench the day before Opening Day -- represents a flaw in their roster building. No upgrades or high-end depth additions were made to the offense after the second half last year and it shows.

How can the Yankees improve their offense?

Right now, the only thing the Yankees can do is remain patient. Wait for the inevitable Judge hot streak, wait for the kids to settle in, wait for Bader and Stanton to get healthy. There are no free agents to sign and rarely is a meaningful trade made in April. The very bad Oakland Athletics would surely trade Seth Brown and/or Ramón Laureano, but they're both on the injured list, so forget that.

You're never as good as you look when you're playing your best and you're never as bad as you look when you're playing your worst, and New York's offense is at its worst right now. This is the same team that averaged 5.08 runs per game in its first 12 games, before this current 10-game malaise. The real Yankees are somewhere in the middle. It is a sport of peaks and valleys, and the Yankees are in a valley right now. The red flag is this valley looks a lot like the valley the team finished last year in.

"It's only April. Onward and upward," Boone said Sunday. "We start a tough road trip (this week). Overall, I think we are playing really well while we are hoping and waiting for guys to get back. But it has allowed other guys to step up, and they have done that. We just have to keep pushing right now when it's tough, and keep grinding away offensively."