Free MLB home run picks, odds for June 5: Ketel Marte among best bets for Thursday HR player props
SportsLine's model is up 28.55 units on HR picks in the last 58 days. Use its MLB picks for sportsbook promotions like MLB parlay boosts
Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte hit a career-high 36 home runs last season, and even though he's missed 26 games already, he might be on track to best that number in 2025. Marte has 10 home runs in 35 games this season and went yard twice on Tuesday night in Atlanta. He'll face the Braves again on Thursday, and the switch-hitter will be batting from his preferred left side against Braves righty Grant Holmes. Marte has hit nine of his 10 dingers while batting left-handed, but you can still find him listed at +430 in the latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 with this FanDuel promo code.
Any first-time users interested in putting together MLB home run picks today can also pad their bankrolls with the latest DraftKings promo code or bet365 bonus code, just to name a few. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 28.55 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 58 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, June 5:
- Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+430)
- Junior Caminero, Rays (+400)
- Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (+400)
- Parlay these picks for +12400 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+430)
As mentioned, FanDuel is offering the best value here, but we're playing Marte at +400 on BetMGM today in our MLB HR parlay. All 10 of his home runs this season have come since May 8, and he's had three multi-homer games in his recent hot stretch. Meanwhile, Holmes has given up nine home runs in his last seven starts and has surrendered 18 home runs now in 132 2/3 big-league innings.
"Braves' SP Grant Holmes is finally showing what made him a first-round pick over 10 years ago, but he has given up 11 HRs this season. Only 2 of those 11 HRs have come in his last 3 starts, which is perhaps why we are getting the value that we have on Marte, but the model expects some regression from Holmes," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "We set Marte's line at +260 to hit a HR."
Junior Caminero, Rays (+400)
The 21-year-old is one of the most dynamic talents in the game, with an eye-popping average barrel speed of 78.1 mph. That's the best in baseball this season, and he's also 78th percentile in average exit velocity (91.5 mph) and 84th percentile in hard-hit contact rate (50.0%) despite the fact that he's only squaring pitches up at a 23.2% rate (30th percentile). It's likely only a matter of time before he settles in to find more barrels, and his power numbers could get ridiculous when he does.
"Caminero went hitless yesterday, but he has been swinging a hot bat as of late. Caminero has hit five HRs over his last seven games played and is up to 14 on the season. He is playing this game at home where he has an .854 OPS and has hit 10 of his 14 home runs," Fetner said. The model sets Caminero's line to hit a homer on Thursday at +330, and both BetMGM and DraftKings are offering +400 odds.
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (+400)
It's been an up-and-down career for the former Arizona State star, as he followed up a disappointing rookie season with 31 home runs in 2023 but only managed a .669 OPS in 92 games last year. However, he's settling in nicely this season and has reduced his chase rate in every year of his career, allowing his natural power to shine through.
"Torkelson is off to the best start in his career and is showing glimpses of why he is a former No. 1 overall pick. Torkelson already is up to 14 HRs on the season and his .837 OPS would be by far a career-best," Fetner noted. "Torkelson has been really good in day games. He has a .315 average, a 1.128 OPS and nine HRs in 26 afternoon starts this season." Once again, it's BetMGM and DraftKings with the best pricing here.
Where to bet MLB props on Thursday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Thursday:
| Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
|---|---|---|
Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets | CBSDYW | |
BetMGM | Up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses | CBSSPORTS |
FanDuel | Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins | No code required |
DraftKings | Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets instantly | No code required |
Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets | No code required | |
bet365 | Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose | CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks for Thursday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 142-72 roll (+2149.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine's Bruce Marshall is also 44-40 (+836) over his last 84 MLB picks, and he already has locked in picks for Thursday.
