Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 7: Kyle Schwarber among best bets for Monday HR player props

SportsLine's model is up 28.1 units on HR picks this season. Use its MLB picks for MLB sportsbook promotions like MLB profit boosts

By Ryan Wooden

Jul 7, 2025 at 4:00 pm ET • 3 min read

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Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has extra-base hits in four of his last five games entering a Monday matchup with the San Francisco Giants, and he's having one of the best statistical seasons of his career in 2025. Schwarber's .924 OPS is the second-best of his career and he's pacing for his third career 40-homer season with 27 home runs over his first 90 games. As one of the game's most well-established sluggers, any time you see his MLB home run odds drifting into the +400 range, he's worthy of consideration and a great price is a big reason why he's one of our top MLB HR picks today as the Phillies play the Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.

BetMGM lists Schwarber at +425 to hit a homer on Monday and you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code. That builds in some insurance if you're following along with our Schwarber play or any other picks in our MLB HR parlay. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 28.1 units on its MLB HR picks this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Monday, July 7:

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+425)
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+450)
Riley Greene, Tigers (+475)
Parlay these picks for +15784 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+425)

Schwarber has a 1.048 OPS so far in July and he's also producing a lot of his power when he feels comfortable enough to be aggressive early in at-bats. He's hit 15 of his 27 home runs in the first three pitches of a plate appearance and he should be aggressive against sinkerballer Landen Roupp tonight.

"Schwarber has dominated left-handed pitchers this season, but historically, he is a much better batter against right-handed pitchers. He has a career .521 SLG against right-handed pitchers in his career," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "We set Schwarber's line at +350 to hit a home run." BetMGM and DraftKings are both offering this price, and new users can bet $5 to get $150 in bonus bets instantly with this DraftKings promo code.

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+450)

Some books have this number as low as +250, so there's inherent value at this price from DraftKings. Even better, he has a matchup with a familiar opponent in a tough spot. Yu Darvish missed the first half of the season with an elbow injury and the 38-year-old will be making his season debut on Monday. Marte is 11-for-38 against Darvish with two home runs and he's also red-hot on the road this season.

"Marte is back on the road starting tonight, and he is slashing a ridiculous .336/.421/.709 on away from home with 11 home runs in 30 games," Fetner said. "We set Marte's line at +260 to hit a home run."

Riley Greene, Tigers (+475)

The 24-year-old former first-round pick has homered in four of his last eight games after going yard in Cleveland last night. In particular, he's been destroying right-handed pitching and he was extremely successful against Rays righty Shane Baz in his only other appearance against him.

"Greene has 22 HRs this season and 21 of them have come against RHPs, against whom Greene is hitting .311 with a .991 OPS," Fetner said. "Greene has three career plate appearances against Shane Baz and is 2-for-2 with a HR, a single, and a walk." The model sets Greene's line to homer at +370, so this price from BetMGM adds a ton of value to our MLB home run parlay.

Where to bet MLB props on Monday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Monday:

Sportsbook	Bonus offer	Promo code
Caesars	Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets	CBSDYW
BetMGM	Up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses	CBSSPORTS
FanDuel	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins	Just click here
DraftKings	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets instantly	Just click here
Fanatics	Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets	No code required
bet365	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose	CBSBET365