How might expanded MLB playoffs look in 2020? 14-team format in 82-game season shows anything is possible
Let's take a look at how recent postseasons might have been different under the proposed playoff format
By
Dayn Perry
•
5 min read
So the 2020 MLB season -- whatever it looks like and whenever it gets here -- is almost certainly going to entail an expanded playoffs. It could go a little something like this, based on an idea MLB wants to implement in the coming years:
- Seven teams from each league make postseason (14 total)
- The team with the best record in each league gets a wild card round bye
- The two other division winners and top wild card team host all games of three-game series in the wild card round
- Those two remaining division winners get to pick their wild card round opponents (during a live broadcast) from the three other wild card teams. The top wild card team plays the unpicked team
- Three series winners and the team with a bye advance to divisional round
Right now, 10 teams make the postseason, so this would be a substantial expansion of the playoff fray. We should talk about that.
In this universally beloved and objectively righteous space, we've already taken a look forward to see which fringe contenders might benefit from the lowering of the playoff bar in 2020. Now let's reverse course and look back at how such a postseason structure would've played out in past seasons. That means answering this question: How would the last five postseasons have looked if we had 14 postseason berths instead of the usual 10?
For you color television enjoyment, we'll take two approaches to this. First, we'll eyeball the standings and tell you which two teams in each league would've claimed those third and fourth wild card berths from 2015-19. Second, we'll nod, bow, and curtsy to the reality that the 2020 regular season will probably span no more than 82 games per team. Since that's the number that's been floated, we'll go back and see where these expanded playoff races stood at the 82-game mark in each of the last five seasons. Onward.
Adding four playoff teams based on final standings
| Playoff berth/Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL East champion | Blue Jays | Red Sox | Red Sox | Red Sox | Yankees |
AL Central champion | Royals | Indians | Indians | Indians | Twins |
AL West champion | Rangers | Rangers | Astros | Astros | Astros |
AL Wild Card 1 | Yankees | Blue Jays | Yankees | Yankees | Athletics |
AL Wild Card 2 | Astros | Orioles | Twins | Athletics | Rays |
AL Wild Card 3 | Angels | Tigers | Angels, Rays, Royals (tie) | Rays | Indians |
AL Wild Card 4 | Twins | Mariners | Angels, Rays, Royals (tie) | Mariners | Red Sox |
NL East champion | Mets | Nationals | Nationals | Braves | Braves |
NL Central champion | Cardinals | Cubs | Cubs | Brewers | Cardinals |
NL West champion | Dodgers | Dodgers | Dodgers | Dodgers | Dodgers |
NL Wild Card 1 | Pirates | Mets | Diamondbacks | Cubs | Nationals |
NL Wild Card 2 | Cubs | Giants | Rockies | Rockies | Brewers |
NL Wild Card 3 | Giants | Cardinals | Brewers | Cardinals | Mets |
NL Wild Card 4 | Nationals | Marlins | Cardinals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
As you've surely already figured out, wild card Nos. 3 and 4 in each league are the ones new to the scene. Our own Matt Snyder back in February took a look at what these last five years would look like with those extra berths, and you can check out his observations on how things might have been shaken up. Executive summary: Many things could change, especially once that crucial first-round bye is considered.
Now that you've done that, let's get to the heart of the matter -- what happens when we end these seasons at around the halfway mark, which is what figures to happen in 2020. Let the HTML flow like the intrepid waters of the Monongahela:
Adding four playoff teams based on 82-game standings
| Playoff berth/Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL East champion | Yankees | Orioles | Red Sox | Red Sox | Yankees |
AL Central champion | Royals | Indians | Indians | Indians | Twins |
AL West champion | Astros | Rangers | Astros | Astros | Astros |
AL Wild Card 1 | Angels | Red Sox | Yankees | Yankees | Rays |
AL Wild Card 2 | Twins | Tigers | Angels, Rays, Royals, Twins (tie) | Mariners | Rangers |
AL Wild Card 3 | Orioles | Astros, Blue Jays, Royals (tie) | Angels, Rays, Royals, Twins (tie) | Athletics | Athletics, Indians, Red Sox (tie) |
AL Wild Card 4 | Tigers | Astros, Blue Jays, Royals (tie) | Angels, Rays, Royals, Twins (tie) | Angels, Rays (tie) | Athletics, Indians, Red Sox (tie) |
NL East champion | Nationals | Nationals | Nationals | Braves | Braves |
NL Central champion | Cardinals | Cubs | Brewers | Brewers | Cubs |
NL West champion | Dodgers | Giants | Dodgers | Diamondbacks | Dodgers |
NL Wild Card 1 | Pirates | Dodgers | Diamondbacks | Cubs | Rockies |
NL Wild Card 2 | Cubs | Mets | Rockies | Phillies | Brewers |
NL Wild Card 3 | Giants | Cardinals | Cubs | Dodgers | Phillies |
NL Wild Card 4 | Mets | Marlins, Pirates (tie) | Braves, Cardinals (tie) | Cardinals, Giants, Nationals (tie) | Padres |
What immediately jumps out is that because there's so much less time to sort things out, we end up with some jumbled standings. This, of course, is more feature than bug. When we back-test the likely 2020 season structure, we find that each of the last five seasons needs multiple tiebreaker games going into the playoffs. That's what happens with four wild card spots in each league and just half of the usual regular season sample to sort it out. All of this suggests that 2020 could bring us some pleasing stretch drive madness, particularly in those wild card races. Praise be to all of that.
Additional notes:
- Of the 30 actual division champs in the topmost table, 22 kept their titles under the 82-game format. The wild card frays, however, were much more hospitable to turnover and madness.
- In the 82-game setup, the Dodgers saw their run of seven straight division titles retroactively erased thanks to the rival Giants in 2016.
- Somewhat surprisingly, the 82-game format did not put a losing team in the postseason. In contrast, the 162-game season with extra berths put a total of three losing teams in the playoffs.
- Here's to the Mariners for ending their playoff drought under both (albeit imaginary) scenarios.
- Does Gabe Kapler keep his job in Philly after guiding them to wild card berths in each of his two seasons on the job? Presumably so, which leaves the Giants in need of a manager in 2020.
- If the Red Sox emerge from that tiebreaker in 2019 and win a wild card spot, does that make them less likely to trade Mookie Betts?
- Angels thunder-star Mike Trout has made the playoffs only once in his career, but this latter format gives him a shot at three additional appearances.
- The World Series champs Nationals and NL Central champion Cardinals each miss the postseason in 2019. Meantime, the Padres and Rangers make it. Given that former San Diego manager Andy Green wasn't dismissed until after game 154, he'd probably still be at the helm coming off the club's first postseason berth since 2006.
As a general matter, it's not as simple as looking at a team's place in the standings after 82 games and drawing firm conclusions from it. After all, in a 162-game season managers use their rosters in more sustainable ways than they wound if the season were half as long. In an 82-game format, each regular season contest would matter more, and it would be treated as such. That said, reducing the sample of games to such an extent means weird, random outcomes will be more likely. That's the nature of smaller sample sizes, and that's especially the case with a sport like baseball, the structure of which lends itself to the unexpected. This look back suggests that in 2020 we should expect precisely what we don't expect. Sounds pretty fun after all this baseball-less time.
