MLB Draft: Debating Emerson Hancock vs. Asa Lacy, the top two pitching prospects in the 2020 class
Hancock or Lacy? Lacy or Hancock? Here we debate the top two pitchers in the 2020 draft
Major League Baseball's annual amateur draft begins on Wednesday. MLB cut this year's draft from its usual 40 rounds down to only five rounds as a cost-cutting move amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Each team will save roughly $3.4 million in bonus money with the shorter draft.
Unlike last year, when Oregon State catcher and current Orioles prospect Adley Rutschman stood out as a clear No. 1 prospect in the draft class, this year's draft does not have a clear-cut top prospect. There are several elite prospects available but no generational type talent a la Rutschman or Bryce Harper.
Our R.J. Anderson ranked Georgia righty Emerson Hancock and Texas A&M lefty Asa Lacy as the top two pitching prospects in the 2020 draft class. Here's what each player has done in their college careers:
| G-GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hancock | 33-33 | 192 | 3.47 | 1.07 | 26.4 | 7.1 | 0.70 |
Lacy | 42-21 | 152 | 2.07 | 1.01 | 36.0 | 10.9 | 0.47 |
Hancock and Lacy both pitched in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference, and Lacy was significantly more dominant. Hancock posted a lower walk rate, otherwise Lacy generated more strikeouts and did a better job limiting earned runs and homers.
The Tigers hold the No. 1 selection in this year's draft but either Lacy or Hancock would be a surprise pick. It's more likely the two pitchers comes off the board in the 3-6 range. Do you prefer the high-strikeout lefty or the command righty? There's a case to be made for both players, and we're here to make them.
The case for Hancock being the first pitcher off the board
Let's start by acknowledging that Hancock doesn't have Lacy's raw stuff, which is to say he doesn't have a fastball-slider combination that lights up a Trackman machine. As such, he appears to have a lower ceiling, making him more likely to fill a mid-rotation role. Usability matters, however, and that's why it's worth highlighting their command profiles.
Lacy walked 10.9 percent of the batters he faced during his time at Texas A&M. Conversely, Hancock walked just over seven percent -- and only 4.8 percent in his sophomore and (abbreviated) junior campaigns. To put that into perspective, consider that 58 big-league starters qualified last season: three of those walked a higher rate of batters than Lacy did: Dakota Hudson, Robbie Ray, and Julio Teheran.
If Hancock's sophomore and junior walk rates are more representative of his true-talent level, then he would've tied for the seventh-best walk rate in the majors.
Are those numbers cherry-picked, especially on the Hancock side? Heck yeah. But it helps highlight the disparity in strike-throwing ability between the two, and that's the point.
Plus, let's not pretend that Hancock's arsenal is without potential. He has a high-spin fastball that should play up in the zone against better hitters, and two secondary pitches that grade as above-average offerings. Pitch design is all the rage these days, and it's at least conceivable that someone helps him find a true out pitch, which would change his outlook.
It's not fair to compare Hancock to Shane Bieber -- most pitchers with that profile don't improve like Bieber has. Nevertheless, Bieber's rise is evidence that command-and-control right-handers can take a step forward. Most don't, but some do. Hancock just might come to join the "some." At minimum, he's probably a more certain thing to remain in a rotation than Lacy, even if he lacks the star upside, due to his feel for the zone. -- R.J. Anderson
The case for Lacy being the first pitcher off the board
Lacy is close to the total package. The eye test tells you the raw stuff is excellent. Trackman data says the measurables (spin rate, etc.) are strong as well. His track record is about as good as it gets in college baseball's toughest conference. Lacy has also drawn praise for his makeup, work ethic, and stoic presence on the mound. He's a no-nonsense pitcher.
With Lacy, you're getting a true four-pitch pitcher. He operates in the 93-97 mph range with his fastball and has a wipeout low-80s slider that took a step forward this spring, a quality curveball, and a sneaky good changeup. Lacy already possesses two above-average pitches (fastball, slider) with a chance for two more (curveball, changeup) at his peak. That's exciting.
The knock on Lacy is his command and pitch inefficiency. Throwing strikes can be a challenge at times and all those strikeouts and walks -- Lacy struck out or walked nearly 50 percent of all batters he faced with the Aggies -- equal high pitch counts. The obvious MLB performance comp is Robbie Ray, a similar high-strikeout, high-walk lefty with pitch count issues.
Command can improve with age and inexperience, however, whereas stuff tends to decline as innings pile up and wear and tear accumulates. Also, pitch count is less of a concern in the opener/bullpen game era. Teams will take five great innings over seven good innings, especially now that the third time through the order penalty is widely understood.
Hancock is a very good pitching prospect, there's zero doubt about that, but his stuff is a notch or two below Lacy's, and his results weren't nearly as good in the same conference. Lacy gives you a chance for four better-than-average pitches, and even with below-average command, that's plenty good enough to be a quality major league starter. -- Mike Axisa
















