Game 6 of the NLCS (GameTracker) started so well for the Dodgers. David Freese sent Wade Miley's fifth pitch of the game over the right field wall for a leadoff home run and a quick 1-0 lead. Can't start a game any better than that, right? Right.

Things quickly went south for the Dodgers after Freese's homer. The Brewers responded with four runs in the bottom of the first inning against Hyun-Jin Ryu -- it is the first time all season Ryu's allowed four earned runs in a game -- and they added a fifth run in the second inning for good measure. Ryu left a few too many curveballs out over the plate and Milwaukee made him pay.

Ryu has faced 18 batters and allowed seven hits, including four for extra bases, through three innings. Add in two walks and half the 18 batters Ryu faced reached base. Yikes. The Dodgers lead the series s3-1, and with his team down 5-1 in Game 6, manager Dave Roberts had a decision to make. His options:

  1. Let Ryu wear it and save the bullpen for Game 7.
  2. Pull Ryu and try to keep the game close, so at least the Brewers have to use their top relievers.

Following the third inning the Dodgers had an 11.9 percent chance to win Game 6 according to basic win probability. A long shot but hardly impossible. And, in the postseason, you want to do everything you can to win the game right in front of you. A four-run deficit with six innings to play is hardly insurmountable.

MLB: NLCS-Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers punished Hyun-Jin Ryu for five runs in three innings in NLCS Game 6. USATSI

At the same time, Roberts would risk wearing out his top relievers in what might be a lost cause in Game 6, thus putting the team in even worse position going into Game 7. Winning Game 7 on the road against a very good Brewers team will be difficult enough. Trying to do it with a short bullpen might be damn near impossible.

Roberts opted to pull Ryu and go to Julio Urias in the fourth inning, so the Los Angeles bullpen will have to soak up at least five innings in Game 6. The Dodgers are hoping to keep the Game 6 close and, if not make it a game, then at least force the Brewers to use guys like Josh Hader and Corey Knebel, so they're less than 100 percent for Game 7.

Personally, I would have stuck with Ryu and spared the bullpen as much as possible for a potential Game 7. If there was a swing in the middle innings -- if the Dodgers hit a three-run home run or something like that -- then shift gears and roll out the top relievers. Otherwise I would've looked at the big picture, and stuck with Ryu with an eye on Game 7.