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September has arrived and we are into the season's stretch drive. Less than four full weeks remain in the regular season and there are still plenty of races to be decided. Division races, wild card races, award races, and more. Here now are three trends to keep an eye on as we get into the most meaningful games of 2025.

Ohtani's new weapon

Shohei Ohtani checked two boxes in his most recent start last Wednesday. He picked up his first win with the Dodgers, and he also completed five innings for the first time since his second UCL surgery. Ohtani struck out nine and threw 87 pitches in five innings of one-run ball against the Reds. His elevated 4.18 ERA hides stellar underlying numbers (2.25 FIP and 2.50 xERA).

As if he's not talented enough, Ohtani broke out a new pitch last Wednesday, introducing a harder, snappier version of his curveball. The curve averaged around 75 mph with 2,400 rpm of spin in 2023, his last healthy season as a pitcher. Last week, it hummed in at close to 79 mph with over 2,600 rpm of spin, giving it harder break. The hitters' reactions tell you everything you need to know:

Ohtani threw 23 curveballs against the Reds last Wednesday. Before that start, he had thrown 11 curveballs all season, and he had never thrown more than 16 curveballs in any game in his career. For all intents and purposes, Ohtani fully introduced a new pitch last time out. The curveball he has now is not the curveball he had earlier in his career with the Angels.

As he's gotten more innings under his belt and further away from surgery, Ohtani has gradually expanded his arsenal  He was fastball/slider primarily in his first few starts. Then he began to introduce his cutter and splitter, and then his sinker. Now Ohtani has unleashed a new curveball. In addition to an elite hitter, he's a legitimate six-pitch pitcher. It really is remarkable.

"I think the great thing about Shohei is he can command, when he's right, four or five pitches," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters, including ESPN, following Ohtani's last start. "When you're trying to go through a lineup three times, you've got to at times be able to go to different pitches and sequences. To continue to build him up and give us options if we want to get a little bit more length out of him is certainly helpful, but this was a good marker, to get to 90 pitches through five innings."

Soto running wild on the bases

It says a lot about how great Juan Soto has been throughout his career that he's hitting .257/.397/.518 with 36 home runs in his first season with the Mets, and it feels a bit underwhelming. For most players, that's a career year. For Soto, it's a year that has left us wondering when he'll go on the nuclear hot streak that lasts the rest of the season. It could start tonight for all we know.

One area where Soto has thrived this season is on the bases. He was a below-average if not outright bad baserunner earlier in his career, but this season Soto is 26 for 28 stealing bases (93% success rate), more than double his previous career-high total (12 steals in 2019 and 2023). At one point earlier this year, he stole 18 consecutive bases without being caught.

It's not just the stolen bases though. Soto is also doing well in other aspects of baserunning. Going first to third on a single, advancing on fly balls and balls in the dirt, etc. Here are Soto's baserunning numbers entering play Tuesday:


Stolen bases Extra-base taken rate FanGraphs baserunning

2023

12 for 17 (71%)

35%

-0.9

2024

7 for 11 (64%)

26%

-3.9

2025

26 for 28 (93%)

44%

+1.8

MLB average

78%

42%

0.0

This is a Mets-wide trend more than a Soto trend. As a team, the Mets rank fifth in stolen bases and first in stolen-base success rate. They're 14th in extra-base taken rate and sixth in FanGraphs' all-encompassing baserunning metric despite not having the speediest roster top to bottom. Soto's improvement has been most notable. He credits first base coach Antoan Richardson.

"I always have hope that I can be capable of doing better than what I was doing," Soto told SNY this past weekend. "But definitely, it's big-time help from Antoan Richardson. He's been helping me since Day 1, spring training, everything. Even to take routes and around the bases, it's not only about stealing bases, but going around the bases, running the bases the right way, be heads up. I think he's been 1A in that point."

Make no mistake, Soto's calling card will always be his bat. He's added real value on the bases though, and although baserunning is not the most valuable skill across the long 162-game season, an extra 90 feet can be huge in the moment. Never before has Soto, who is still only 26, helped his club this much with his legs and on the bases.

Adames could end Giants' drought

Overall, it has been a typical Willy Adames season in his first year with the Giants. He took an Adames-like .230/.318/.427 line into Tuesday's game thanks largely to a monster second half (.895 OPS since the All-Star break). Depending which stat you look at, his shortstop defense has either been very good (plus-4 outs above average) or terrible (minus-7 defensive runs saved).

Regardless, Adames is having the best season by a Giants' shortstop since Brandon Crawford was at his peak, and he's having one of the best power seasons by a Giant at any position in recent memory. Adames slugged 26th home run of the season Monday, his seventh home run in his last 11 games. He's nearing his third 30-homer season in the last four years.

The Giants, as you may know, have not had a player hit 30 home runs since Barry Bonds hit 45 in 2004. Brandon Belt hit 29 home runs in only 97 games around injuries in 2001, but 29 is not 30. Bonds is the last Giants player to hit 30 home runs and it was more than two decades ago. Adames needs four homers in the team's final 23 games to reach 30. It's very doable.

San Francisco's 30-homer drought is far and away the longest in baseball. The other 29 teams have all had at least five 30-homer seasons since 2005 and they've all had at least one since 2019. Oracle Park is a poor home run park, especially at night, but still, more than 20 years with no one getting to 30? It's hard to believe in this home run-happy era.

Of course, the Giants have three World Series championships (2010, 2012, 2014) since their last 30-homer season, so it's not like they've been held back by their lack of power. Regardless, Adames is poised to do something no Giant has done since Bonds was still at his very best. The 30-homer drought in San Francisco is finally nearing an end.