New York Mets 2018 season preview: Wild-card hopefuls with a chance for more
Once again, the Mets are hoping their rotation will stay healthy this season
The 2017 season was an unqualified disappointment for the New York Mets, who went into the season as postseason hopefuls and instead finished with the sixth worst record in the sport. The Mets smartly unloaded veterans Neil Walker, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, and Addison Reed at the trade deadline to restock the prospect cupboard, though the trades didn't yield an impact piece.
Over the winter the Mets did something they haven't done often under the Fred and Jeff Wilpon led ownership group: They spent money. Three years and $39 million for Jay Bruce, two years and $17 million for Todd Frazier, two years and $16 million for Jason Vargas, and two years and $14 million for Anthony Swarzak. All reasonable contracts and all upgrades for a Mets team that went into the offseason with holes seemingly all over the field.
Along with the new roster additions came a new manager this offseason. The Mets named former Cleveland Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway manager in part because they hope he can take their vaunted rotation to the next level, or at least keep them on the field this season. New players, new manager, new season. Are the 2018 Mets good enough to get to the postseason for the third time in four years? Let's preview their upcoming season.
The vitals
- 2017 record: 70-92 (minus-128 run differential)
- 2018 depth chart: Click here.
- 2018 schedule: Click here.
- 2018 fantasy outlook: Click here.
Probable lineup
On paper, New York's projected lineup is anywhere between decent and pretty good. They will be without young stud Michael Conforto for the first few weeks of the regular season, but once he returns -- Conforto is already playing in minor league games this spring as part of his rehab -- the Mets will have a nice little 1-8 lineup. Here is Callaway's projected Opening Day batting order:
- CF Brandon Nimmo
- LF Yoenis Cespedes
- RF Jay Bruce
- 3B Todd Frazier
- 1B Adrian Gonalez
- 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
- C Travis d'Arnaud
- SS Amed Rosario
- Pitcher
Bench: C Kevin Plawecki, IF Wilmer Flores, IF Jose Reyes, OF Juan Lagares
Callaway subscribes to the "your best hitter should hit second" line of thinking, hence Cespedes in the No. 2 hole after spending much of his career batting third or cleanup. Nimmo is a bit of a personal favorite and I think he could really sneak up on some people this year. He hit .260/.379/.418 in 69 games last season, his first extended taste of the big leagues, and he has the skills to be a high on-base player going forward.
Flores will certainly see platoon action against lefties -- he's a career .274/.318/.540 hitter against southpaws -- likely at first base in place of Gonzalez. The Mets are committed to Rosario, one of the top prospects in baseball prior to his call-up last season, at shortstop, which means Reyes will be used as a bench player. At least he should be used as a bench player, anyway. Flores and Lagares give Callaway some nice reserve options on the bench.
Probable rotation

Few teams have a collection of starters as potentially dominant as the Mets. The rotation played a huge role in getting the club to the World Series in 2015 and, if they're going to make any noise in the postseason race this year, they'll need their rotation to lead the way. Here is the projected Opening Day starting five:
- RHP Noah Syndergaard
- RHP Jacob deGrom
- LHP Steven Matz
- RHP Matt Harvey
- RHP Zack Wheeler
Vargas will miss some time with with a fracture in his non-pitching hand that isn't too serious despite needing surgery. He was hit by a comebacker a few days ago and will be shut down five days before he resumes throwing. That allows Wheeler to slide into the early-season rotation for at least the first turn or two through the rotation in the regular season.
For all the talk about that fivesome in the projected rotation over the years, never once have they made a full turn through the rotation together because of injuries. That should happen for the first time in the first week of the 2018 regular season.
Probable bullpen
The Mets, like so many other teams, are going the eight-man bullpen route to begin the 2018 season. Their final few bullpen starts are still officially up for grabs, though this is Callaway's projected relief crew at the moment:
Closer: RHP Jeurys Familia
Setup: LHP Jerry Blevins, RHP AJ Ramos, RHP Anthony Swarzak
Middle: RHP Seth Lugo, RHP Hansel Robles, RHP Paul Sewald
Long: RHP Rafael Montero
Blevins, Familia, Ramos, and Swarzak are locked into the bullpen spots. Lugo, Montero, Robles, and Sewald are competing with RHP Robert Gsellman and RHP Jacob Rhame for the remaining spots. It should be noted Montero is out of minor league options, meaning he can't go to Triple-A without passing through waivers, and the Mets may not want to risk losing him yet. Either Lugo or Gsellman figures to wind up in Triple-A stretched out as an emergency starter.
Anyway, Callaway has talked about not having a set closer this season, and instead using Blevins, Familia, Ramos, and Swarzak to mix-and-match in the late innings. Blevins will face the tough lefties -- he's going to see lots of Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman this season, as always -- we know that much. These bullpen by committee plans, while well-intentioned, always seem to result in a set closer. Familia would likely be the guy in that case.
Is this the year the rotation stays healthy?
The big question. For every team, really, but especially the Mets. A lat injury limited Syndergaard to 30 1/3 innings last year. Harvey was hurt and terrible (6.70 ERA). Matz was hurt and terrible (6.08 ERA). Wheeler was hurt and slightly less terrible (5.21 ERA). deGrom was healthy and a stud all year. But Gsellman, Montero, and Lugo finished second, third, and fourth on the team in innings last season. That can't happen again. Not if the Mets want to contend.
Syndergaard returned from the lat issue late last season and he's looked fantastic this spring (1.35 ERA in 20 innings). Harvey's spring numbers aren't great, but he says he feels good, and that's the most important thing. Matz and Wheeler? Well, they're on the mound now, so that's good. Mets starters had a 5.14 ERA last season, the highest in franchise history by a lot -- the expansion 1962 team had a 4.77 ERA, second worst in team history -- and that can't happen again. If it does, the Mets are going home after 162 games again.
Callaway has been considered a rising managerial star the last few seasons and his work as a pitching coach speaks for itself. Look at what the Indians' staff accomplished under his watch the last few years. Being a pitching coach and being a manager are two different things, though Callaway certainly has sway over his staff. He plans to implement new routines this year. From Kevin Kernan of the New York Post:
"You have to have that routine in place at all times," Callaway said. "We are going to implement some things that maybe they haven't done before.
"Everyone I've been around pretty much walks outside, stretches, plays catch, they do their bullpen. Our pitchers in Cleveland had about an hour-and-a-half routine before they even went out and played catch. They were with massage therapists, then they were with trainers, getting all these hands-on things done, then they went to the weight room to see the strength coach for extra stretching, then they went on the bike, then they went outside and stretched.
"It's pre-hab. If we can implement those types of things, we have a better chance to stay healthy. It does work. When you present it to these guys, they are going to want to do it."
I know this much: Whatever the Mets were doing the last few seasons wasn't working. They couldn't keep their pitchers on the field -- to be fair, there's always going to be some level of "we couldn't do anything about that" with pitcher injuries -- so they changed their field staff, and put a pitching guru in charge. Change was needed so the Mets made changes. Now we'll see whether those changes have a tangible impact on the field.
The first base situation is fluid
A year ago this time Dominic Smith was arguably the best first base prospect in baseball, but when his second half MLB debut didn't go well (.198/.262/.395 in 49 games), the club spent much of the offseason looking for a veteran insurance plan. That led them to Gonzalez, who had been released by the Atlanta Braves after coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers in a salary-shuffling deal.
Because he was released from his contract, the Mets only owe Gonzalez the pro-rated portion of the $545,000 league minimum this season. The Braves are responsible for the remainder of his $22.357 million salary in 2018. Veteran depth behind a young player is never a bad thing, especially for a team with designs of contending. Gonzalez will cost the Mes basically nothing, and if they needed to send Smith down to Triple-A for more seasoning, they have someone to fill-in.
But then, once spring training started, the conversation shifted away from Gonzalez being a backup plan to Gonzalez being the starter at first base. Smith suffered a quad injury very early in camp, which has taken him out of the first base race completely. He's still rehabbing and Gonzalez will be the man at first base. He hasn't been good at all this spring, though he did hit his first home run earlier this week, so you know it's still in there.
.@Adrian_ElTitan shows off the 💪 with an opposite field bomb. pic.twitter.com/7soyU27y0T
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 20, 2018
Smith's injury took all the drama out of the first base job. Once he completes his rehab, he'll go to Triple-A to make up at-bats, then the Mets will evaluate their first base situation. If Gonzalez is crushing it, Smith might stay in Triple-A. But, if Gonzalez is struggling and/or hurt -- he hit .242/.287/.355 in 71 games around elbow and back problems in 2017 -- the Mets might cut ties.
I get the sense we're heading for a lot of "Gonzalez is hitting [whatever] and Smith is hitting much better than [whatever] in Triple-A, so why aren't the Mets making a change at first base?" chatter this season. You know how that goes.
What happens with the outfield when Conforto returns?
Conforto's shoulder injury was one last kick in the biscuits in an overwhelmingly miserable season. He tore his posterior capsule taking a swing in September and needed surgery, and the original timetable had him lined up for a return at some point in May. Conforto is actually ahead of that schedule. He has been playing in minor league games with no issues so far. Rare good injury news for the Mets.
Of course, the Mets are going to be extremely careful with their young franchise hitter, so being ahead of schedule with his rehab doesn't necessarily mean Conforto will return ahead of schedule. He is on the mend though, and once he returns, the Mets will have five outfielders for three spots: Bruce, Cespedes, Conforto, Lagares, and Nimmo. Too many good players is better than not enough good players. It's still something Callaway will have to juggle.
The optimist's answer: Cespedes and Conforto play every day, Nimmo and Lagares platoon, and Bruce gets regular at-bats in both corners and even at first base. The realist's answer: This will work itself out. Nimmo might play his way back to Triple-A, someone might get hurt, Conforto may need to be eased back into things and thus unable to play every single day. I lean toward the latter. These "too many players for too few spots" situations always work themselves out.
If things do go according to plan and the Mets suddenly find themselves with five legitimate big league outfielders when Conforto returns, I wonder whether they'd peddle one in a trade. Nimmo or Lagares would be the obvious trade candidates. Needs are going arise during the season. They always do. Conforto's return could upgrade both an outfield spot (with his bat) and another roster spot (by allowing the Mets to use another outfielder as trade bait).
















