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The San Diego Padres had one of the most disappointing seasons in MLB last year, falling well short of preseason expectations by notching an 82-80 record. The Padres were particularly ill-fated in one-run (9-23) and extra-inning (2-12) contests, adding salt to the proverbial wound by having so many winnable games slip away.

The Padres are now back after a busy offseason that saw them bid adieu to Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and 60% of the starting rotation as well as recently welcoming trade acquisition Dylan Cease to the fold. Is there enough starting pitching in place for the Padres to make a run? And how much can their stable of young and unproven players help?

Let us attempt to answer those questions and more by previewing the 2024 Padres.

Win total projection, odds

  • 2023 record: 82-80 (third in NL West)
  • 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 81.5 wins
  • World Series odds (via SportsLine): +6000

Projected lineup

  1. 2B Xander Bogaerts
  2. RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
  3. 1B Jake Cronenworth
  4. DH Manny Machado
  5. SS Ha-Seong Kim
  6. LF Jurickson Profar
  7. 3B Graham Pauley
  8. C Luis Campusano
  9. CF Jackson Merrill

The Padres didn't make a notable addition to replace Soto in their lineup -- not unless you count another reunion with Profar as such. Machado is unlikely to play third base to begin the year, opening the door for someone like Pauley or Eguy Rosario to prove themselves as legitimate big-league contributors.

Projected rotation

  1. RHP Yu Darvish
  2. RHP Joe Musgrove
  3. RHP Dylan Cease
  4. RHP Michael King
  5. RHP Jhony Brito

Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez all departed in free agency to begin the offseason, leaving the Padres with the winter to remake a rotation that had the best ERA in MLB. Cease and King (obtained in the Soto trade) were the biggest additions. Brito (also part of the Soto deal) or knuckleballer Matt Waldron seem to be the likeliest candidates to break camp as the fifth starter. 

Projected bullpen

  • Closer: RHP Robert Suarez
  • Setup: LHP Yuki Matsui, RHP Enyel De Los Santos
  • Middle: LHP Wandy Peralta, RHP Woo-Suk Go, RHP Tom Cosgrove
  • Long: RHP Luis Patiño

The Padres let closer Josh Hader walk in free agency. They did make several additions, including Matsui and Go, both of whom were signed as international free agents. Jeremiah Estrada, acquired off waivers from the Cubs, also has the raw stuff to be an asset in middle relief -- he just has to get back to throwing strikes first.

Can the rotation serve as backbone?

As noted above, the Padres had the best rotation in baseball last season as judged by ERA. Obviously Petco Park played a sizable role in that ranking, but it's fair to write that the rotation was one of San Diego's strengths. Will that remain the case in 2024 after an offseason line change saw Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, and Seth Lugo depart in favor of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and (presumably) Jhony Brito?

On paper, it would appear so. Take a look at how ZiPS, a projection model hosted at FanGraphs, sees those five faring in 2024:

  • Darvish: 3.96 ERA
  • Musgrove: 3.38 ERA
  • Cease: 3.85 ERA
  • King: 3.49 ERA
  • Brito: 4.03 ERA

If we had to guess, new manager Mike Shildt would sign off on all that in a heartbeat.

Alas, there are some wide error bars with this group. Darvish is 37 and has been a below-average starter (albeit barely) in two of the last three years; Musgrove threw fewer than 100 innings last season because of injury; Cease is coming off a relatively down year himself; King has cleared the century mark once in five years; and Brito is fairly untested at the big-league level. You don't have to squint to see how some of this can go south. If it mostly doesn't? The Padres have a chance to field another strong rotation.

What will come of the youth movement?

Scroll back up to the projected lineup and you'll notice that these Padres are more reliant on unknown quantities than their other recent squads. Merrill, Campusano, and Pauley -- the bottom third of the order -- have 266 combined trips to the plate at the big-league level. Oh, by the way: Campusano is responsible for all of those.

Mind you, there's a difference between being unproven and unworthy. Campusano is a former top prospect who posted a 134 OPS+ in 49 games in 2023. Merrill, meanwhile, is the 12th best prospect in the minors, according to our analysis here at CBS Sports. He's a skilled contact hitter from the left side whose above-average athleticism should help him make a quick transition to the outfield. Pauley doesn't have the same pedigree: he's coming off a good season in the minors, but he's a former 13th-round pick who you won't find gracing the top of many prospect lists. (Hey, it's not how you're perceived at the beginning of your career; it's how you're perceived at the end.)

That's just the lineup, too. The Padres will turn to Brito or Waldron at the back of their rotation -- they've combined for 19 big-league starts to date -- and they're likely to introduce more unknowns as the season burns on. In our estimation, there's a real chance that Ethan Salas becomes the first teenager to catch in an MLB contest since Iván Rodríguez did it in 1991. Outfielder Jakob Marsee, righties Randy Vásquez and Adam Mazur, and perhaps even lefty Robby Snelling could factor into the equation, depending on how they and the Padres perform.

As such, it's fair to write that the Padres' season will be determined in large part by how all of these previously untested players perform at the big-league level. 

What would make for a successful season?

The basic answer is "making the playoffs." We think there's enough talent here that San Diego may find itself in the hunt for a wild-card spot until deep in the year. That's no given, however, and so we'll offer an alternative answer: some of those aforementioned young and/or unproven players display enough competency to become entrenched in the Padres' future plans.