Why Nationals aces Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin face steep climb in shortened season
Despite the extra rest, the Nats' talented trio could be hindered by the circumstances of a 60-game season
The Washington Nationals enter this unprecedented 2020 season as the defending World Series champions.
On a team that rode its starting pitchers especially hard in the postseason, normally that proposition would come with a likely downtick in production from said starters. As an example let's compare the 2018 Boston Red Sox starters to their 2019 starters, who were heavily used deep into the playoffs:
| Boston Pitcher | 2018 ERA | 2019 ERA | 2018 WHIP | 2019 WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2.11 | 4.40 | 0.86 | 1.09 | |
3.58 | 4.28 | 1.14 | 1.31 | |
4.28 | 5.52 | 1.18 | 1.39 | |
Nathan Eovaldi | 3.81 | 5.99 | 1.13 | 1.58 |
Uniformly, they were incredibly worse in 2019 following that deep playoff run and extra use in October. It was pretty extreme across the board, really. We can't 100 percent be sure the extra work in October was the culprit because we didn't have a "control" group, the essential key to any science experiment. We can, however, surmise that the extra workload in October impacted the following season because we have the ability to critically think.
Now, we also know the 2019 Nationals were heavily reliant on a trio of aces.
Max Scherzer battled back injuries in the regular season and the playoffs, yet he still managed 172 1/3 regular-season innings and 30 innings in six postseason outings. His arm has a lot of mileage on it, too. In his previous nine seasons, he averaged 210 innings in the regular season and often made the playoffs.
We know plenty about Stephen Strasburg's injury history. Last season, he avoided any. He worked an NL-best 209 innings in the regular season and 36 1/3 frames in six playoff appearances.
Patrick Corbin worked 202 regular-season innings and then 23 1/3 in the playoffs in eight appearances -- only three starts.
Given their ages -- Scherzer (35), Strasburg (31) and Corbin (30) -- heading into this season along with the workload concerns, the smart money would've been on a tough year for the Nats' trio of aces.
Instead, the season has been delayed for months.
So now it's advantage Nats, right?
Not so fast. It's rather complicated.
With the abbreviated "summer camp" before the regular season starts, the starting pitchers won't have time to get stretched out.
Consider:
- Scherzer only threw 48 pitches on Wednesday.
- Strasburg threw 52 pitches Friday.
- Corbin threw 43 pitches Saturday.
We're less than a week away from the real games. They simply aren't going to be ready for a full workload early in the 60-game season.
The Nationals aren't exactly teeming with reliable relievers, either. Sure, Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson were great last season when available, notably in the playoffs. Neither has a clean injury history, though. They added Will Harris, but he's just one guy.
Come September, sure, the Nationals can likely lean very heavily on their trio of aces. Before then, though, their immense talent will be mitigated by circumstances.
In looking at the prospects for the 2020 Nationals' pitching staff, we're stuck in a rut. They have likely been spared from the deep workloads of 2019 impacting the season, but they also won't be able to have quite the impact their upside provides due to the circumstances of how the season will unfold.
