Why the Jose Quintana trade makes sense for the Cubs and makes them much better
Here's the Cubs version of why this was a good deal
By
Matt Snyder
•
3 min read
The baseball world was set for a nap on Thursday on the last day of the All-Star break, but instead Chicago rocked it to its core. Jose Quintana was traded to the Cubs by the cross-town White Sox for a nice package of prospects.
I know in our world of screaming heads and hot takes, we have to immediately start yelling about why one team fleeced the other, but what if that's the wrong take? I will now attempt to provide a reasonable breakdown of why the trade makes sense for both sides.
You can read why the deal was good for the White Sox side as well here. If you prefer to take the Cubs' side, let's dive in.
Why the Cubs made a great deal
The Cubs are 5 1/2 games out of first, but that's workable. Given that they won 97 games in 2015 and 103 games along with the World Series last year, they are obviously in win-now mode.
Further, the Cubs have a ton of big-league position players who are young and under team control for a while. Check this out:
Player | Age | Under team control through ... |
27 | 2021 | |
25 | 2021 | |
23 | 2021 | |
24 | 2021 | |
24 | 2021 | |
25 | 2022 | |
27 | 2023 | |
23 | 2022 | |
22 | 2023 |
Obviously there are always other factors in play, but in just looking at the level of talent there and how long they can all be kept on the same team, that's a position-playing nucleus with the window of contention wide open.
On the flip side, only Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks are sure things in the rotation for next season, with Mike Montgomery a wild card option.
The Cubs also need starting pitching help this season.
So the best move here would be to trade position-playing prospects -- because they are likely blocked by guys already proven on the big-league level -- for a non-rental rotation piece who is relatively young and inexpensive.
Why inexpensive? Because the Cubs are either gonna need to add another starter via free agency in the offseason or trade for one that might be a bit more expensive this month or in the offseason.
Enter Quintana.
He's only making $7 million this season and $8.85 million next year. Then there's a club option for $10.5 million in 2019 and an $11.5 million club option in 2020. He'll still only be 31 years old in 2020.
So now the Cubs know that the rotation for the rest of the season is, in whatever order you want: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey. Mike Montgomery is back to where he's best served as the long man.
SportsLine projections show that adding Quintana added one win for the Cubs the rest of the way. Should the Cubs hang around with the Brewers (and maybe the Cardinals and/or Pirates, who knows?) in the NL Central, one game can make a huge difference. Then if the Cubs make the postseason, a Lester-Quintana-Arrieta-Hendricks rotation has good upside and gives them a chance to repeat.
Further, post-2017, Quintana is now alongside Lester and Hendricks as the sure things in the rotation. We'll see how the Cubs add to that for now, but moving Dylan Cease -- who is pitching in Class A -- doesn't affect that.
As for coughing up Eloy Jimenez, yeah, that hurts the farm system, but are we losing focus of what actually matters here? The landscape has changed. The Cubs are the World Series champions. Why should they be hugging a prospect who has never even played in Double-A when they already have all the young, big-league talent mentioned above? Prospects bust sometimes. Or even if not "bust," sometimes they end up underwhelming. When it comes to outfield prospects with huge power, the Cubs already saw this with Jorge Soler.
This isn't to compare Jimenez to Soler at all. It's just to use an example of what can happen. The prospects the Cubs gave up could be great in the majors four or so years down the line, but they are trying to win right now. Again, see the table above. The window of contention in the present.
The Cubs aren't hoarding prospects anymore. That's in the past. Now they are trying to win as many championships as possible. Moves like the one they made on Thursday illustrate as much.
