Celtics vs. Wizards odds, line, spread: NBA picks, predictions from proven model on 69-52 roll

The Washington Wizards will look to end their season on a positive note with a win Tuesday night, as they host Terry Rozier and a severely undermanned Boston Celtics squad. The Celtics are giving several of their regulars the night off, as Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris, and Aron Baynes all will sit. Washington is a bit banged-up, too. Trevor Ariza (groin) has already been declared out, while Jabari Parker (knee) and Jordan McRae (achilles) may miss Tuesday's season finale. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from the Capital One Arena. Sportsbooks list the Wizards as 4.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 223 in the latest Celtics vs. Wizards odds. Before you make any Celtics vs. Wizards picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 25 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 277-216 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 25 on a strong 69-52 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Celtics vs. Wizards. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations, meaning the line is way off. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model is aware that Washington has more healthy talent available than Boston. Washington also has been significantly better at home this year too, holding a 22-18 record, as opposed to just 10-31 on the road. The Wizards have a strong 57.5 percent cover rate at home, while Boston has covered in just 44.7 percent of road games. 

Plus, Beal has been quite productive in two meetings with the Celtics this season, averaging 26 points and nine rebounds on 51 percent shooting. Look for him to finish his All-Star campaign with a bang in Washington's final game of the season.

But just because Washington has more healthy bodies doesn't mean it'll cover the Celtics vs. Wizards spread on Tuesday. 

The model has also factored in how ridiculously short handed the Celtics are on Tuesday night. Teams occasionally rest players down the stretch, but rarely is it the entire team like this. The players sitting for the Celtics accounted for 73 percent of Boston's scoring this season. Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier are the only active players that even averaged over 15 minutes on the year. Rozier, Brown, Daniel Theis, and Semi Ojeleye are the only available Celtics who have even appeared in half of the team's games. 

Boston is going to run its second and third unit out against a Washington team that is still playing starters like Bradley Beal, Tomas Satoransky, and Bobby Portis regular minutes. This Washington team has the sixth best home cover rate at 59 percent against-the-spread on the year, and that is coming against actual NBA rosters, not second and third-stringers.

So who wins Celtics vs. Wizards? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Celtics vs. Wizards spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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