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The Charlotte Hornets host the Miami Heat in a Southeast Division battle on Thursday and the matchup is the final game before the NBA All-Star break for both teams. Charlotte aims to reach the .500 mark as the Hornets are 29-30 overall and 14-13 at home, while Miami is 18-14 on the road and 37-21 overall this season. Jimmy Butler (shoulder) and Caleb Martin (Achilles) are questionable for Miami, with Tyler Herro (knee) and Dewayne Dedmon (personal) ruled out. Gordon Hayward (ankle), Cody Martin (ankle) and Jalen McDaniels (ankle) are out for Charlotte.

Miami is listed as a five-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 226.5 in the latest Heat vs. Hornets odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Heat vs. Hornets match-up, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 67-39 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hornets, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Hornets vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Hornets spread: Heat -5
  • Heat vs. Hornets over-under: 226.5 points
  • Heat vs. Hornets money line: Heat -200, Hornets +170
  • MIA: The Heat are 19-13 against the spread in road game
  • CHA: The Hornets are 15-12 against the spread in home games

Why the Heat can cover

Miami's defense is very strong, allowing fewer than 1.08 points per possession. The Heat lead the NBA in points allowed in the paint, with top-six marks in field goal percentage allowed, turnovers created, assists allowed, and second-chance points allowed. Miami is also very good on offense, producing 112.1 points per 100 possessions, and this is a favorable matchup against a shaky Charlotte defense. 

The Heat are No. 2 in the NBA in three-point shooting, making 37.5 percent of attempts, and Miami is near the top of the league in assists, assist percentage and offensive rebound rate. No team makes a higher percentage of free throw attempts (81.5 percent) than Miami, and the Heat have intriguing balance. Charlotte is below-average overall on defense, including the worst mark in the NBA in assists allowed. The Hornets are in the bottom six of the NBA in three-pointers allowed, two-point percentage allowed, free throw attempts allowed and fast break points allowed.

Why the Hornets can cover

Charlotte's offense is dynamic, with high-end strengths in key categories. The Hornets are making 13.7 3-pointers per game and shooting 35.8 percent from long distance. Charlotte is also averaging 27.2 assists per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and the Hornets assist on 64.4 percent of field goals. The Hornets take care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 13.0 percent of possessions, and Charlotte ranks in the top four of the NBA in fast-break points (16.2 per game) and points in the paint (50.0 per game). 

The Hornets are scoring more than 1.11 points per possession overall, and Miami is No. 27 in the league in 3-pointers allowed. The Heat are also in the bottom 10 of the NBA in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and Charlotte is adept at creating chaos on defense. The Hornets are averaging 15.3 turnovers per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and Charlotte is in the top five in averaging 8.7 steals per game. Miami is No. 27 in the league in points in the paint and No. 28 in the league in turnovers per game on the offensive end.

How to make Hornets vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hornets? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.