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On Monday, word surfaced of a potential deal being discussed between the Miami Heat and the Houston Rockets involving Dwight Howard. The move would send multiple pieces to Houston, including talented but temperamental big man Hassan Whiteside. 

So what would the impact of such a deal be, and what would a potential deal look like?

FORECAST: HOWARD VS. WHITESIDE

The good folks at SportsLine were kind enough to send us over some data that shows exactly what the impact of swapping out Howard for Whiteside would be for both teams. 

Here's Miami's forecast:

Heat Season Forecast: Howard vs. Whiteside
  SEASON REST OF SEASON

MIAMI HEAT

Wins

Playoffs

Win Div

Win

Loss

Win%

w/Whiteside

44.0

89.6%

18.3%

15.0

14.0

51.7%

w/Howard

42.4

72.9%

9.2% 

13.4

15.6

46.2%

Here's SportsLine's Stephen Oh to explain this pretty shocking drop with the addition of Howard: 

The simulations "hate" Dwight Howard because he's an increasingly overrated defender, is nothing special in terms of his true shooting percentage and he turns the ball over at a high rate.  He's "anchored" some pretty bad defenses since leaving Orlando.  

Houston was our second strongest season futures win total Under pick this season because the sims thought Howard and Houston were overrated.  Ignoring potential personality and attitude issues, in this scenario, the simulations say Miami gets worse with Howard and Houston gets better with Whiteside. 

So ... that doesn't sound great. 

Bear in mind that much of the fact that Howard is "overrated" as a defensive player based on metrics is a result of a subtle shift. Howard is still individually very good. He contests at the rim, alters shots, can contain in the pick and roll. However, due to injuries, he's no longer able to cover for defensive liabilities on the perimeter. 

Essentially, if you put him on a good defensive team, like Miami, there's a good chance that he's impactful and effective. But the numbers can't factor how Howard plays with a bad team vs. a good team, and they only deal with what is, and right now Howard is an overrated defender. 

Miami's chances at winning their division are halved in this scenario with Howard, and they wind up two games under .500. Maybe the data's incapable of seeing the whole picture, maybe it isn't, but this should at least give the Heat braintrust pause. 

So what about for the Rockets? 

Rockets Season Forecast: Howard vs. Whiteside
  SEASON REST OF SEASON

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Wins

Playoffs

Win Div

Win

Loss

Win%

w/Howard

39.5

52.4%

0.0%

12.5

14.5

46.3%

w/Whiteside

40.7

68.9%

0.0%

13.7

13.3

50.7%

This is problematic for Houston as well. Yes, they improve, they're 1.2 games better with Whiteside and that could be the difference in a playoff spot or in home court advantage if the Rockets miraculously pull up from their recent nosedive. They're still likely to make the playoffs and they jump to nearly a 70 percent chance if they make the deal for Whiteside. 

Bear in mind that much of this is based on production. Whiteside is a highly productive player. He has a crazy high shooting percentage because effectively all he does is catch lobs, and he is a very good finisher at the rim, better than Howard is in reality. However, he comes with all sorts of concerns. He blocks a lot of shots, but on/off analysis of the Heat's defensive rating shows that Miami's defense is worse, considerably, whenever Whiteside is on the floor. How does that work? Whiteside chases blocks in such a way as to leave the defense vulnerable and isn't great at containing and attacking on the perimeter on switches off the pick and roll. 

It's important to note that Whiteside is only making $981,000 this year compared to Howard's $22.4 million. The salaries have to match within a certain range, so more players have to be involved. 

"Like what?" you ask. 

Glad you asked!

THREE POTENTIAL HOWARD-FOR-WHITESIDE TRADE SCENARIOS

Note: Many of these deals would require the team to trade or waive lower-end contracts to make roster room. Nothing is perfect and everything is messy when it comes to the deadline. 

The simplest solution would be a Miami-Atlanta-Houston three-way swap. This one was first reported by 610 Houston Monday: 

Of note: that reporter has not thrown out a lot of random stuff, and even got this Astros bit correct. Take it with a grain of salt, but this does work money wise. Via ESPN's trade machine: 

The Heat get Teague, who doesn't need the ball as much as Dragic does, while getting Horford who would absolutely wreck worlds next to Chris Bosh defensively. That's a whole lot of basketball IQ on the floor. The Hawks get Howard, but there is some concern over whether he would re-sign. The Rockets get Goran Dragic, again, to play point guard next to James Harden (that's a messy, messy combination) and the upside of Whiteside. Where that leaves Clint Capela is anyone's guess, but there it is. 

THE WAY TOO COMPLICATED FOUR-WAY TRADE

Before you get freaked out here, this one is not going to happen. Too many moving pieces, too many gambles by too many sides. Don't consider this a legit option, but it goes to show you the problem with the money side of things in trading Howard's huge contract for Whiteside's tiny one. 

So the Heat get Howard and Holiday and Lee, and that gives them a different point guard who's better defensively in Holiday, along with a solid backup two-guard who can make shots in Courtney Lee. The Grizzlies get two shooters who can actually score and Ariza who can defend a bit. 

Houston takes on Luol Deng and Jeff Green. That's bad. However, that's $21 million in expiring contracts they can use to chase Kevin Durant this summer. It just frees up their money significantly. Oh, and on top of it, they get Ryan Anderson (who they'll have to re-sign) and Whiteside, as a thunder-and-lightning combo. Anderson stretches the floor, Whiteside protects the rim, and James Harden draws a million fouls all the time. 

The Pelicans get five players in this deal and would have to find some other moves in a hurry to make it work. However, they get Dragic, to give them a guard who thrived with Alvin Gentry to put next to Anthony Davis. They get a veteran center in Andersen on an expiring deal, they get Barnes who provides a veteran wing who can also stretch the floor and defend, upside in K.J. McDaniels and Ennis as a throw-in. 

Again, too complicated, and that's kind of the point. 

THE "LEVERAGE THE TEAM THAT WANTS VETERANS" TRADE

The Heat get Howard and another big in Smith. They give up Deng, Anderson, McRoberts, and Whiteside, which is a lot but they get Howard. The Rockets get Tobias Harris to stretch the floor alongside Whiteside, a veteran defender in Luol Deng, Channing Frye to stretch the floor and a veteran center in Andersen for a few months. 

The Magic have wanted to bring in more veterans. This allows them do that without trading Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo or Elfrid Payton. They get a veteran shooter in Ariza who Scott Skiles would love, McRoberts who is a gifted passer and a smarter, stronger stretch four, a young stretch four in Terrence Jones which helps them kick the can down the road when it comes to Harris, and a throw-in of great leak-out and all around happy guy Corey Brewer. 

None of these are perfect but no deal for Whiteside or Howard will be, let alone one with both. It gives you an overview of how complicated this situation is. 

Dwight Howard and Hassan Whiteside are both difficult to trade. (USATSI)
Dwight Howard and Hassan Whiteside are both difficult to trade. (USATSI)