Would Tim Duncan's return restrict the Spurs' chances at Marc Gasol? (USATSI)
Would Tim Duncan's return restrict the Spurs' chances at Marc Gasol? (USATSI)

In an interview with USA Today, San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich says that he believes Tim Duncan won't retire after this season. 

"No matter how (the season) ends, I think Timmy is going to look at (retirement) again," Popovich told USA TODAY Sports on Tuesday. "And if you ask me, my guess is that he'll go for another one because he has been so consistent this season.

"It's just consistent stuff: another double-double, over and over and over again. Because of that, I think in his mind that if it continues through the rest of the year, I think he'll say, 'I'm going to go another year and see what happens.' Because what he has told me is that the minute he feels like he's a hindrance to his team or he's not on the positive end or helping him, he's going to walk right off the court. It might be during the third quarter of a game.

"He's not going to hang on to finish a contract or make the money or have the notoriety that you know he doesn't give a (expletive) about. So the way he's playing now, he's going to look in the mirror and say, 'Hey, I'm doing all right.' "

via Gregg Popovich: Spurs (and Tim Duncan) not going away.

Duncan's not leaving until he's a "hindrance?" 

So... he's going to play until he's 150? The guy would record a double-double and have a plus-10 in the box score fifteen years after he's dead.  

Duncan, at age 38, is averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds (averaging a double-double at 38!) with 1.9 blocks per game and is a legitimate defensive player of the year candidate. He's still making smart decisions, still delivering huge plays, still being a monster. His minutes load is actually up this season, but at just over 30 minutes, what matters more than his-per-game numbers are how impactful he is per possession. 

Per possession, no player has ever been as productive at age 38 or older as Tim Duncan. 

So yeah, that guy's pretty good. 

But there are implications to Duncan staying on another year. Per Basketball-Insiders, the Spurs are only on the hook for $34 million next summer, giving them a world of options to pursue upgrades in free agency. However, Kawhi Leonard will be a restricted free agent. Assuming they bring him back ("Ha!" he exclaimed as if this were a question), and assuming he takes a max contract, that'll put his salary for next season at just over $15 million (assuming he doesn't get the Rose Rule -- let's not even go there for right now). Luckily, the Spurs can wait until after signing free agents to bring him back. But this matters for the total amount, as Peter Holt, despite being a great owner, can only afford so much. So that puts the total at $50 million. 

The Spurs will want to bring Danny Green back, and that's likely going to be somewhere in the double-digits range for what Green's provided. Let's be conservative and put him at $9 million. So $59 million. The cap for next season is projected at $66.5 million. It could be a little higher. But early projections put the luxury tax at $81 million. That gives the Spurs $22million to play with before they start paying the tax, which they're not keen on.

(For the purposes of this discussion, we're assuming the "smoothing out" of the cap jump due to the new NBA TV deal won't begin this summer. If it does, then all hell breaks loose and it's impossible to predict what those numbers will be.)

Manu Ginobili's likely coming back if Duncan comes back, though at a reduced price. Let's ballpark it conservatively at just $4 million. Now we're up to $63 million. Duncan will likely take whatever the team asks him to take within reason, but as he's at $10 million now, let's say he sacrifices $3 million and goes in for $7 million. That's $70 million with just $11 million left over, and just eight players on contract at that point. Aron Baynes and Cory Joseph are scheduled to be restricted free agents, looking for their first major deals. Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli are unrestricted free agents. 

Even if Duncan, Ginobili, Leonard, and Green all take massive sweetheart deals to keep the band together -- which is entirely possible, it's still likely the Spurs will be over the cap and under the tax to fill out the roster. So what's the big deal? Just keep the team together. 

Marc Gasol. Marc Gasol is the big deal. 

The Memphis big man is expected to return to Memphis as an unrestricted free agent. The Knicks are a disaster, the Lakers have very little to offer him. But San Antonio? That's a very intriguing option for Gasol, as I wrote about months ago. But if Duncan returns, the likelihood of the rest of the team coming back and the organization wanting to keep the core together increases. There's still Tiago Splitter's $8 million which would be very tradeable in that scenario, and because of all the free agents, the Spurs wouldn't be cap-restricted in signing Gasol, but would be financially restricted.

(Basically, they can sign Gasol to a max contract, then re-sign everyone one by one using a team's ability to keep their players while going over the cap in the new CBA. But that total amount would wind up putting the small-market Spurs into massive luxury tax territory.)

So does this absolutely rule out Gasol to the Spurs? No. For one, Popovich thinks Duncan returns, but Duncan won't make that decision until later this year. And if he goes, Ginobili likely goes with him. That clears space. Then there's the Holt dynamic. If the team tells Holt they can set the core for the next five years with Tony Parker-Gasol-Leonard, and he'll only have to shell out for a single season in the luxury tax, Holt could very well go for it. Trade Splitter, sign Gasol fill out the roster with cheap contracts or developing players which you can replace with better options after Duncan and Ginobili retire, and the Spurs would field a starting five next season of Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, and Marc Gasol and cover the earth in darkness. 

(By the way, you can just sub in LaMarcus Aldridge for Gasol in any of these scenarios.)

However, money is money, and if the Spurs can keep a title contender for another year and bring back the Greatest Power Forward Of All Time (maybe the Greatest Big Man of All Time), and not pay the tax, that's the most likely situation. 

So this news has more of an impact than just on the Spurs and Duncan. Everything is fluid here, and Memphis fans may hate the idea of going against Duncan's Spurs for another year, but it may wind up being good news for them.