The most hyped second round in NBA history is underway! Two supposedly too-close-to-call series -- Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics -- started with a blowout, but that doesn't mean that they're uninteresting. It is fascinating, for example, that Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid were thoroughly outplayed by Al Horford and Marc Gasol, respectively. So let's start there. 

Brain geniuses

How often does the smarter team lose a series? I don't have the answer to this question because I don't know how you'd even begin to quantify basketball IQ, but my best guess is "rarely." The playoffs push teams to their limits, and, as much as coaches and players love to talk about physicality and grit and aggressiveness and resilience and all of that tough stuff, I'd argue that intelligence is as important an attribute as anything else. The league's smartest players -- the Horfords and Gasols of the world -- stabilize their teams in high-stakes, high-pressure situations. 

It's difficult to talk about how Horford and Gasol's minds work without sounding pretentious or resorting to John Wooden maxims. Indeed, they are quick, but they don't hurry. Their passes are precise, their screens are solid and they almost never make mistakes. Their coaches love how they communicate on defense, understand angles and subtly make the game easier for their teammates. This past weekend, they frustrated the superstars they guarded by using force without fouling. They took Antetokounmpo and the banged-up Embiid out of their comfort zones. They made them think.

Horford's highlight block -- one of his five swats on Sunday -- was remarkable because it was a bit disorienting. He is known for sound positional defense, not sending opponents crashing to the floor as their shot attempts are obliterated. That play, however, served as a microcosm of the Milwaukee Bucks' problem on offense: Boston always seemed to be a step ahead, and Antetokounmpo couldn't overcome that with sheer ferocity.

Antetokounmpo and Embiid should be more efficient and decisive as these series go on. At their best they look unstoppable, and their coaches will make adjustments to try to put them in position to be their best. The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors, however, can count on their centers to remain composed, crafty and competitive, regardless of how their respective series evolve. 

I've focused on Horford and Gasol here because Embiid and Antetokounmpo were so visibly bothered by them, but I could rave about the discipline of Aron Baynes and the cleverness of Kyle Lowry, too. I picked the Golden State Warriors to beat the Houston Rockets mostly because the brilliant Andre Iguodala is healthy this time, and I picked the Denver Nuggets to advance again because I think Nikola Jokic can exploit the weak spots in the Portland Trail Blazers' defense. In matchups where one side doesn't have a massive advantage in talent, the outcome can be determined by which team makes the right decision more often. 

What I am suggesting is not merely that execution is important in the postseason -- duh! -- but that players who can be credibly described as basketball geniuses are even more valuable this time of year. When a bunch them are on the same team, it breeds calmness, confidence and an ability to adapt.

An adjustment for Giannis

Another note on that play where Antetokounmpo was blocked by Jayson Tatum and Horford: George Hill was wiiiiide open on the wing, and Nikola Mirotic had some space in the corner. All season, the Bucks' attack has been predicated on their MVP candidate attracting attention and finding open teammates, and coach Mike Budenholzer has made a point of praising him for his playmaking and ability to read the floor. It was alarming, then, to see Antetokounmpo repeatedly drive into traffic and miss open teammates. 

Here, Horford strips him on a drive with Brook Lopez all alone in the corner and Sterling Brown free on the other side:  

Here, Antetokounmpo decides to try to bully his way to the basket -- or perhaps the free throw line -- despite four Celtics converging:

Maybe there should have been a foul on Tatum on that possession. The point is that he can't rely on that. When defenders collapse, he needs to make the simple play. 

In fairness, Antetokounmpo is used to being able to finish over almost anybody. The man shot a shocking 4-for-15 in the paint in Game 1 after going 31-for-47 in the paint during the first round. If anyone in the NBA is going to try to be overly ambitious in this area, it makes sense that it would be him. You've seen him bully his way to the basket and score over multiple defenders. Just because he can do that type of thing, though, doesn't mean that it's a sustainable strategy. 

Every team tries to keep Antetokounmpo out of the paint and challenge him when he gets there. Boston just did it more effectively. The solution, especially in the halfcourt, is to make the Celtics pay for sending help. If his teammates knock down some 3s -- Lopez, Eric Bledsoe, Ersan Ilyasova and Pat Connaughton went a combined 2-for-20 -- perhaps Antetokounmpo will be less inclined to force the issue.

The broader point here is that, regardless of what you might hear on TV, stars can't always dictate the terms of engagement. The answer to a bad offensive night is not always more aggressiveness. Antetokounmpo will have an easier time doing violent things to the rim if he plays his part in making Milwaukee's offense healthier. 

Floater fest

In Saturday's Game 7 between the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs, Jamal Murray and Jokic played the two-man game and Jokic lofted the ball just over the fingertips of Jakob Poeltl for a bucket:

On the next possession, DeMar DeRozan made a runner off a classic Spurs side pick-and-roll:

Right after that, Murray and Jokic created another floater opportunity, only this time it was Murray putting it in softly off the bounce:

It was a floater fest. The Nuggets went 11-for-28 on short midrange shots in the deciding game, per Cleaning The Glass, and the Spurs went 8-for-26. For context, the Celtics and Bucks shot a combined 8-for-27 from that area on Sunday.

San Antonio and Denver ranked first and second, respectively, in both accuracy and frequency of short midrange shots in the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass. Those shots are generally considered inefficient, as they are more difficult and less likely to generate free throw attempts than shots at the rim. Some teams, like Milwaukee and Houston, discourage them to the point where it can look like they're forbidden. Here's Bledsoe not even thinking about it:

Ironically, that possession ended with Sterling Brown missing a floater, but that's neither here nor there. As the playoffs continue, I'm interested in which teams use this weapon effectively. In a league obsessed with rim protection and recovering to shooters, in-between shots can be deadly when the right player is taking them. 

James Harden worked on his floater in the summer because that's what defenses were giving him, and the Rockets have allowed him and Chris Paul -- one of the greatest floater artists in NBA history -- to use it when necessary. In the regular season, Harden shot a career-high 46 percent on short midrange shots, per Cleaning The Glass, and attempted 131 more of them than he did last season. In the playoffs, however, he has shot just 10-for-36 on such shots. Pascal Siakam, on the other hand, has shot 16-for-24 from that area in the playoffs, making tough ones like this with regularity:

Part of what makes the Raptors scary is that Siakam and Kawhi Leonard don't need to get all the way to the basket to be effective scorers. While Siakam's off-balance-but-somehow-in-control floaters don't make announcers compare him to Michael Jordan the way Kawhi Leonard's turnaround jumpers do, they have the same demoralizing effect on a defense. Everybody wants to create easy layups and open 3s, but you must have counters when your preferred options are taken away.

A series of takes

  • The Philadelphia 76ers need more from Jimmy Butler -- if he wants to maintain his reputation for playing hard every possession, he has to be more engaged when someone other than himself or the player he's guarding has the ball.
  • While Enes Kanter was better than anyone expected in the first round and should be commended for battling through a shoulder injury, he is about to be in a world of trouble. 
  • The Nuggets keep talking about being No. 1 in 3-point defense in the regular season, but that is about defensive 3-point percentage, not frequency. Denver ranked 21st in preventing 3-point attempts, so its proficiency in defending the line has been overstated. I'm not confident that the Nuggets will do much better than the Oklahoma City Thunder when it comes to cooling down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum from deep. 
  • Kyrie Irving and Horford will pick and pop Milwaukee to death if it isn't careful. Related: D.J. Wilson should have had a chance to play in Game 2. 
  • Embiid's playing time is a big story, but I'm more interested in how many minutes the rest of the starters get. I'd push all of them into the 40s if they can handle it, especially with Mike Scott out, and it's time to use Ben Simmons as the backup center.