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A potential Eastern Conference postseason preview is on tap Thursday night as the Miami Heat visit the Brooklyn Nets. Miami (41-22) is the No. 1 seed out East while Brooklyn (32-31) is the No. 8 seed, meaning this would be the first-round matchup if both seeds hold at the conclusion of the play-in tournament. Kevin Durant is expected to return after missing 21 games due to a knee injury, while Kyrie Irving (ineligible), Ben Simmons (reconditioning) and Joe Harris (ankle) remain out. Miami will be without Kyle Lowry (personal), while Jimmy Butler (toe), P.J. Tucker (knee), Caleb Martin (Achilles) and Max Strus (shoulder) are questionable.

Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center, where Brooklyn sports a 13-17 record. Brooklyn is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Nets vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over-under is listed at 222.5. Before you make any Heat vs. Nets picks, you need to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 19 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 71-44 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has broken down the Heat vs. Nets matchup from every angle and just revealed its coveted picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NBA odds and betting lines for Nets vs. Heat:  

  • Nets vs. Heat spread: Miami +1.5
  • Nets vs. Heat over-under: 222.5 points 
  • Nets vs. Heat money line: Miami +105, Brooklyn -125
  • MIA: Tyler Herro is averaging 22.8 points over the past six games 
  • BKN: Seth Curry has hit 22 of 47 3-point tries in seven games

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is elite on both ends of the court, ranking seventh in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency. It is one of just four teams ranking in the top 10 in both categories, and the only team in the East to do so. The Heat are one of the league's best shooting teams as they lead the NBA in 3P percentage (37.6) while ranking fourth in FT percentage (80.7). Miami also takes care of business on the road with a sterling 21-13-1 record against the spread in away games, which is the fifth-best mark in the NBA.

While Durant's return is a huge on-court boost for the Nets, his impact hasn't been as great in helping Brooklyn cover. The Nets are 24-12 straight-up when he plays but are just 15-21 ATS with the four-time scoring champ on the floor. Also, Irving and Harris being out will hurt Brooklyn from beyond the arc as the team already ranks among the bottom 10 in both 3P makes and 3P attempts. No team allows fewer baskets inside the arc than Miami, so Brooklyn struggling beyond the arc will make it difficult for it to get points on the board Thursday night.

Why the Nets can cover

Brooklyn could catch Miami looking ahead to its long home-stand as the Heat are playing a back-to-back on the road before returning to Miami for 11 of their next 12 games. They could be fatigued after a game that went to the wire against the defending NBA champs. The Nets are expected to have Durant back after he missed almost two months with a sprained knee ligament. He averages a team-high 29.3 points, which would rank third in the NBA if he qualified.

The Nets have a sense of urgency and should be fired up after a game they thought they should have won. James Johnson scored 19 on Tuesday, Curry had 18 and LaMarcus Aldridge added 16. Curry is hitting 46.8 percent of his 3-pointers since coming over in the James Harden trade. He is averaging 17.9 points and has stepped up with Irving out for home games and Simmons not yet ready to play. Nets opponents are hitting just 33.8 percent from 3-point range (eighth in NBA).  

How to make Heat vs. Nets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 221 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Nets vs. Heat pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins the Heat vs. Nets matchup on Thursday night? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of Nets vs. Heat to back Thursday, all from the advanced model on a 71-44 run on its top-rated NBA picks, and find out.