One of the top matchups in the NBA's first full slate of games is a rematch of last year's Western Conference semifinal matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. Denver begins the season without one of its top players in Jamal Murray, who is recovering from a torn ACL he sustained last season. Meanwhile, Phoenix is hoping that Chris Paul has enough left in the tank for another deep postseason run this year.
Tip-off on Wednesday night is set for 10 p.m. ET in Phoenix. The Suns are favored by six-points in the latest Suns vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 223.5. Before entering any Nuggets vs. Suns picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three seasons. The model finished up almost $600 on its top-rated picks last season and enters the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Suns vs. Nuggets spread: Suns -6
- Suns vs. Nuggets over-under: 223.5 points
- Suns vs. Nuggets Money Line: Suns -260, Nuggets +210
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver is coming off of a 47-25 season with hopes of advancing further than the second round of the playoffs, where the Nuggets were eliminated by the Suns in a four-game sweep. The Nuggets are again led by center Nikola Jokic, who took MVP honors last season, but couldn't do it all on his own in the postseason. Denver went through some significant personnel changes around the trade deadline last season in conjunction with Murray's injury.
Phoenix was one of the league's best teams against the spread last season, but as a home favorite by five points or more, the Suns were only 12-9 ATS. The Suns have a talented big man in DeAndre Ayton, but don't exactly have a deep front court and don't have anyone that can reliably shut Jokic down, defensively.
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix enjoyed a 51-21 record last season and almost won it all, losing 105-98 to the Milwaukee Bucks in game six of the NBA Finals. Denver was the fourth best NBA team in field goal percentage, finishing the 2020-21 season at 48.5-percent, but the Suns were even better. Phoenix ranked second in the league and closed the year at 49 percent.
Both sides had some of lowest paces of play on offense last season, and Denver didn't add much in the way of outside shooting to replace what it lost coming out of 2020-21. Phoenix had the fifth-best 3-point shooting percentage and held opponents to the fifth-fewest field goal attempts in home games last season. In two games against Denver in 2020-21, Devin Booker averaged 26.5 points.
How to make Nuggets vs. Suns picks
The model has simulated Suns vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning over the total, and it's generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Suns vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nuggets vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.