The Dallas Cowboys are in the middle of a major overhaul on offense. They are still leaning on what won for them in 2016, with their offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott remaining the focus, but 2018 will be all about Dak Prescott and his ability to prove he's worth a $20 million per year contract. That's the going rate for any quarterback who remotely qualifies as a top-end, young starter these days and Dak will earn it if he can help navigate the Cowboys back into playoff contention next year.

Dallas isn't doing him any favors in terms of the weapons around him though. Gone are Dez Bryant (released) and Jason Witten (retired). Insert Allen Hurns (free agency) and Michael Gallup (draft). 

Are you a Cowboys fan on the ledge after Dez Bryant and Jason Witten left? Don't worry: Patrik Walker of 247 Sports joined Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to explain why it's all good in Dallas. Want a 30-minutes-ish, daily dose of football in your podcast app inbox by 6 a.m. to get you through that commute or gym trip? Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play

The defense has improved this offseason, with Sean Lee, Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith comprising one of the most upside-filled groups at linebacker in the league. 

There should be plenty of pressure on Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones' golden child, to win this year as well.

It's always hard to gauge Dallas when you look towards Vegas, because they are such a public team, but it's telling that their 2018 NFL win total is set at 8.5 games.   

Why They'll Go Over

When you think about 2016, it feels like a long time ago. That Cowboys team just doesn't feel remotely similar to what Dallas has going as we head into 2018. But there are some similarities, particularly on the offensive line and in the running game. The addition of Connor Williams could give the Cowboys the boost they need in run blocking and pass protection to get back to their roots; run the ball like they did in 2016 and the Cowboys can destroy some people. It also involves Ezekiel Elliott remaining on the field for a full season. He missed a large chunk of last year because of suspension issues with the NFL, and the rest of the time he was dealing with the psychological issues that come with battling the league in a very public legal battle. If Elliott plays like he did as a rookie and the offensive line blocks like it did two years ago and Dak looks the way he did in 2016, the Cowboys are going to threaten for the division title. 

If Allen Hurns, Terrence Williams and Michael Gallup can recreate Bryant's production -- 63 catches, 857 yards per 16 games over the last three years, totally possible -- then maybe the Cowboys are better off at wide receiver than we think. Patrik Walker and I discussed this on the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe here) but what me might be missing about this "Dak Friendly" offense is that it wants to focus on running the ball and maximizing the STRUCTURE of the offense. Tony Romo and Dez lived by playground ball for years, but that's not Dak's forte necessarily. My biggest problem is that everyone pointing and laughing at the Cowboys wideout group -- myself included -- just feels like too much of a layup. It's an obvious problem, almost too obvious. This group can work if the run game is going. 

Especially if the defense clicks. DeMarcus Lawrence and Taco Charlton could be a nice little combo off the edge, while a healthy trio of Leighton Vander Esch, Sean Lee and Jaylon Smith is a spicy linebacker group. With Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, Byron Jones and Xavier Woods, there is plenty of young talent in the secondary. 

Dallas can be a very scary team if everything clicks. 

Why They'll Go Under

Everything doesn't have to click. That's sort of how this works, with the NFL being so fickle because of the short sample size nature and the quick, unpredictable changes that can cause a team to shoot up or shoot down the standings. The offensive line might be more talented than most lines around the league, but it's also like any other line, in that it can be drastically affected by a single injury or a single player struggling. It sounds like Connor Williams is going to move into the starting left guard role, while La'El Collins stays outside at right tackle (after some chatter that Collins might move back inside); that leaves free-agent signing Cameron Fleming to backup both tackle spots and help for depth. So you essentially have a rookie learning a new position, moving there to take over for the departed Jonathan Cooper, which was sort of the key spot that caused the Cowboys issues down the stretch. Williams is a very talented prospect, but there's some risk here. 

The receivers might not be good. We have to at least acknowledge that, without insulting Hurns, Williams, Cole Beasley or Gallup. Hurns and Williams have been best suited as No. 2 receivers in their career. Beasley is a slot guy. Gallup is a rookie -- highly-drafted rookies don't always put up numbers out of the gate from the wideout position. 

Lawrence is playing for a big payday, so it wouldn't be stunning to see him replicate 2017, but it's a high bar to clear. The linebackers are a MAJOR injury risk. The secondary is still young. 

Worth noting when discussing the Cowboys' downside: at this time last year no one thought Elliott would miss multiple games. He's been a model citizen since his suspension, but he's an incident away from the league coming after him. (That is NOT me questioning anything about Zeke, it's just the nature of already being suspended once.) 

Early Schedule Analysis 

Four of the Cowboys first seven games are on the road, and they are not in easy places to play: Carolina, Seattle, Houston and Washington. The Cowboys draw the Giants, Lions and Jaguars at home before their Week 8 bye as well, and those games are all alternating in terms of home-road. All things, considered, it's a pretty friendly seven-game stretch to start the season. 

It gets tougher after the break. Dallas returns from the bye in Week 9 with the Titans at home, then gets back-to-back road games against the Eagles and Falcons. Four days after their trip to Atlanta, they play the Redskins at home on Thanksgiving to kick off a critical schedule of three home games: Washington, New Orleans and Philadelphia come to Dallas in back-to-back-to-back weeks. 

Go 2-1 in that stretch and the Cowboys are going to be in very good shape, especially since they close with the Colts (road), Buccaneers (home) and Giants (road). Those games could be tougher than we expect, but that's not a bad stretch to end the season. 

What They're Saying

"It's great that you mentioned Mississippi State, because this offseason, they've been studying film from his career at Mississippi State and they're looking to steal ideas and techniques in how they can structure the Cowboys offense to most benefit Dak Prescott. Because like you said, he is not Tony Romo in terms of the same skillset. So the sandlot ball, the Brett Favre Ball, for lack of a better way to put it, is out the window. Dak is not the gunslinger that Tony Romo was. Dak needs a structured environment. There are still some fundamentals he needs to work on: footwork, timing, consistent accuracy. So whereas he's the highest-graded quarterback in the NFL with tight-window passes, consistently making down the field passes, those back-shoulder throws, things of that nature, he's admitted himself he needs to improve upon that. But once he gets those fundamentals down -- and hopefully he will this season -- if they can tweak this system in a way that fully utilizes all of his skillset -- his mobility, his duel-threat nature, you've got Ezekiel Elliott back there, the five linemen we just talked about and now you toss in great route-runners -- they're really setting up Dak Prescott to succeed in 2018.

"He's going to have to, because ideally you want to start talking extension on the back end of this third year with your quarterback. They don't get a fifth-year option for him. He was a fourth-round compensatory pick. So if he does not impress, or he lays an egg or he doesn't move forward as he should ... it's going to be a really challenging offseason as far as deciding what's going on."

-- Patrik Walker of 247 Sports (@VoiceOfTheStar on Twitter), talking about the Cowboys new offense and the future with Dak Prescott on the Pick Six Podcast.

The Pick

This is the toughest one for me out of the division so far. I see a lot of question marks on this Cowboys team. Honestly, talking to Walker (see: above) and other Cowboys folks, you can see the upside here. There is a chance they win 10+ games if everything clicks right. But things don't always click right in the NFL; the NFL is a cruel beast. And I'm not sure the Cowboys are prepared to click this year either. I think the running game is better and I think the defense is dangerous, but having to play the entire NFC South and AFC South is just too tough. I'm leaning towards 8-8 with all of these non-Eagles teams in this division and with the number so high on Dallas I have to go under here. 9-7 or 10-6 wouldn't be surprising at all -- this is far from one of my best bets.

VERDICT: UNDER