In a typical NFL season, Wild-Card Weekend is one of the most out-of-control and intense portions of the schedule, featuring a bunch of games that are essentially toss ups. It might be 2018, but this Wild-Card Weekend appears to be keeping in the theme of 2017, with a group of games that all have teams favored by right around a touchdown each. 

None of the games should be surprising in terms of the line, though. The "Paper Titans" never looked like a playoff team for the second half of the season and barely squeaked out a win in the final two weeks, with both games at home. The Chiefs have weaknesses, but Andy Reid can hammer an early-round opponent in the playoffs. The Titans have been much worse when not at home, including going 3-5 against the spread away from Nashville.

The Rams have been one of the most public teams this season, but they didn't disappoint anyone, going 9-7 against the spread and 7-5 when favored. The Falcons have been topsy-turvy this season and just never clicked; if there is one game that doesn't feel like it should be a full touchdown, it's this one. 

Jacksonville has a home playoff game with Blake Bortles -- who continues to be disrespected! -- and they're favored by almost double digits and it's kind of scary to bet AGAINST them. Worth noting: the Bills are getting 55 percent of the bets in this game and the line keeps moving toward the Jaguars. That's a major red flag, and yet it's tough to lay 9 points with this Jags offense. 

The Saints being touchdown favorites over the Panthers, after opening up as 6-point favorites, shouldn't be a surprise either. New Orleans played Carolina twice this season and, well, ball don't lie. The Panthers lost 34-13 at home to the Saints and then lost 31-21 in New Orleans. 

What's worth remembering about all these games is that, even with the huge lines, it does not mean an upset has to happen. The Falcons can be frisky and the Bills can compete with the Jaguars. It's hard to beat a team three times in one season, which the Saints will try to do. The Titans can attack a primary Chiefs weakness (more on that below). 

But there were a bunch of big favorites last year too. The Texans were 4-point favorites with BROCK OSWEILER at quarterback and still handily covered against the Raiders and Conner Cook. The Seahawks snuffed out the Lions and an injured Matthew Stafford 26-6, in a game that wasn't that close. Seattle was an 8-point favorite and covering was never in doubt. The Steelers were 11-point favorites over Matt Moore and the Dolphins and won 30-12. There was a little backdoor potential there, but not really. And the Packers punched the Giants harder than Odell Beckham Jr. punched a hole in the wall at Lambeau, beating them 38-13 in a game where they were favored five points the year before. 

In 2015, the Chiefs (hello) beat up on a questionable AFC South team in the wild-card round, thumping Brian Hoyer and the Texans so badly (30-0) they panicked and went out and signed BROCK OSWEILER. The Seahawks (-4.5) failed to cover as road chalk against Minnesota, and the Steelers (-3) failed to cover as road chalk against the Bengals that year. Those are different cases, especially when you add the road factor as well as the physical nature of Steelers/Bengals and the weather in Seahawks/Vikings. Vegas made Aaron Rodgers a 1-point dog in Washington and paid for it dearly. 

The NFL has not been a dog-friendly world in the playoffs lately and it is not going to start this weekend.

Saturday, Jan. 6

AFC: (5) Tennessee (9-7) at (4) Kansas City (10-6), 4:35 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

NFC: (6) Atlanta (10-6) at (3) Los Angeles Rams (11-5), 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)

Sunday, Jan. 7

AFC: (6) Buffalo (9-7) at (3) Jacksonville (10-6), 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

NFC: (5) Carolina (11-5) at (4) New Orleans (11-5), 4:40 p.m. ET (Fox)

And now that the field and schedule are set, it's time to take a look at who is and isn't favored and more importantly, it's time to make picks. Let's get to it.

All odds via SportsLine.

Odds update

Titans at Chiefs (-9)

  • Kansas City against the spread: 10-6
  • Kansas City against the spread as the favorite: 8-5
  • Tennessee against the spread: 8-7-1
  • Tennessee against the spread as the underdog: 2-1

Falcons at Rams (-6.5)

  • Atlanta against the spread: 7-9
  • Atlanta against the spread as the underdog: 0-2
  • Los Angeles against the spread: 9-7
  • Los Angeles against the spread as the favorite: 7-5

Bills at Jaguars (-9)

  • Buffalo against the spread: 9-6-1
  • Buffalo against the spread as the underdog: 4-5
  • Jacksonville against the spread: 9-7
  • Jacksonville against the spread as the favorite: 6-5

Panthers at Saints (-7)

  • Carolina against the spread: 9-7
  • Carolina against the spread as the underdog: 5-2
  • New Orleans against the spread: 9-7
  • New Orleans against the spread as the favorite: 8-3

My picks

Chiefs (-9)

This is a bunch of points and anyone who is picking the Titans will point to the Chiefs' biggest weakness: stopping the run. Kansas City was 32nd against the run according to Football Outsiders DVOA, the worst in football. The Titans' thing they do the best? Run the ball. When they are a good team, it is because Marcus Mariota is creating issues for the defense and Derrick Henry is ripping off long runs. But I can't help myself here, I just don't trust the Titans. They laid an egg against the Rams in Week 16 and barely beat a Jaguars team with nothing to play for in Week 17. They will find a much more difficult test in stopping Alex Smith, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill on the road. As a road team this year, Tennessee was 3-5 against the spread, failing to cover by an average of seven points per game. Kansas City was excellent at home, going 6-2 against the spread, winning those games by 7.2 points per game. Give me the better team with the better coach and the better offense. 

Rams (-6.5)

This line keeps trending upward and I suspect that it could end up going over a touchdown once all is said and done. It is dangerous to assume the Rams won't be prepared in this game: Sean McVay has coaching and playcalling experience in the playoffs and everyone should be acutely aware of what a Wade Phillips defense can do in the postseason. Aaron Donald should be Defensive Player of the Year; he will remind people of that in this game against a banged-up Falcons offensive line. Ultimately it's going to come down to execution in the red zone, for both teams. If either team settles for field goals in this potential shootout, it's going to be a loser. The Rams have to use their motion and their many weapons in order to keep the Falcons defense on its heels and if they can rip off big plays to limit the number of drives they need, they can force Atlanta to spend a ton of time on the field. The guess here is McVay can win the chess match and the Rams pull away late. The Falcons were 0-2 against the spread as a road dog this year, losing by a lot of points. They haven't looked right all season and it catches up to them here. 

Jaguars (-9)

Ever since midseason I've been making a point of reminding myself not to bet on Bortles in the playoffs. The last two weeks have been a firm reminder of that, with Jacksonville struggling badly on offense. The Jags got embarrassed in San Francisco and then could muster only 10 points against the Titans in Week 17. But the motivation in those games wasn't really there -- Jacksonville clinched the AFC South in Week 16 before they played and were locked into the No. 3 seed last week. Buffalo is in a bad spot too, because they could be missing LeSean McCoy, who is a game-time decision after suffering an ankle injury against Miami. If Shady can't play the Bills are toast. Even if he can, he's going to be limited. The Jaguars can stack the box and let their defense do the dirty work. If the Jags score any points on defense or special teams this week, this game and this cover are locked. Buffalo's defense is 31st against the run according to DVOA, which means Leonard Fournette could finally get going again. The Bills will be inspired in this game but will ultimately be overmatched. 

Saints (-7)

Another situation where the red flags go up -- the Panthers are really going to lose to the Saints three times in a single season? That doesn't happen in the NFL. It's just too hard to beat a team that often. But here's the rub for this one: coaching. Ron Rivera does a fine job as a head coach, but Sean Payton has had his number recently. Steve Wilks will be dealing with plenty of interviews as a prospective head coach himself, and Dennis Allen is a big advantage for New Orleans over Mike Shula, especially with the way the Saints defense has played this year. Cameron Jordan terrorized the Panthers the last time these teams played, and he's going to do it again this weekend. Drew Brees with an offensive line will pick even the best defenses apart, and it just doesn't look like everything is clicking on that side of the ball for the Panthers. If they surrender any sort of an early lead, a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are going to turn this into a one-sided affair. The Saints roll big in this one.