Agent’s Take: Has the magic run out for Bill Belichick and the Patriots?
Belichick has always had the magic touch, but some of his offseason moves might backfire on Patriots
By
Joel Corry
•
11 min read
Bill Belichick is the gold standard for NFL coaching and roster building. Since he assumed the reins of the Patriots in 2000, New England has become a modern day football dynasty. At times, it seems as if Belichick is playing chess while the rest of the NFL is playing checkers.
Belichick's magic touch was on display last season as the Patriots won their fifth Super Bowl. The Patriots didn't miss a beat after jettisoning arguably their best two defensive players from their 2015 roster. Chandler Jones was shipped to the Cardinals in an offseason trade because New England was never going to pay him the going rate for productive pass rushers, which starts in the $16 million per year neighborhood with over $50 million in guarantees, once his contract expired after the season. Linebacker Jamie Collins turning down an $11 million per year contract extension during training camp was an impetus for dealing him to the Browns as last season's trading deadline approached.
Losing Rob Gronkowski, the game's best tight end, to a season-ending back injury didn't derail New England's championship hopes. Martellus Bennett, who was acquired in an early offseason trade, took up the slack during Gronkowski's absence.
Belichick was just as aggressive this offseason as in 2016 with roster moves. The prevailing view before the start of the season was New England had a chance at the perfection that eluded the 2007 Patriots by winning their sixth Super Bowl with a 19-0 record.
Perfection went out the window in the season-opening loss at home to the Chiefs. Although the Patriots are sitting atop the AFC East with a 4-2 record, they seem more vulnerable than Belichick's championship-caliber teams of the past few years.
The defense is giving up a league-worst 440.7 yards per game after ranking eighth in the NFL last season at 326.4 yards. Every quarterback who has faced New England this season has thrown for at least 300 yards. Opponent scoring is way up this season. The Patriots are allowing 26.5 points, 30th in the NFL. The 15.6 points per game given up last season were the fewest in the NFL. The Patriots' defense also ranks last with 6.6 yards per play. The defense was 10th in 2016 allowing 5.2 yards per play.
Surprisingly, the offensive line has been inconsistent despite returning the same unit from last season. Quarterback Tom Brady was sacked 16 times in the first five games. He was taken down 15 times in the 12 regular-season games he played during the 2016 season. The offense also hasn't excelled in short-yardage situations.
The bar was set incredibly high but the 2017 Patriots haven't come remotely close to living up to preseason expectations. Overall, Belichick's roster moves have been questionable at best so far. Some have been complete failures. The biggest success has been acquiring wide receiver Brandin Cooks from the Saints essentially for New England's 2017 first-round pick (32nd overall). He is the Patriots' best deep threat since Randy Moss almost a decade ago. Cooks leads NFL wide receivers with 19.7 yards per catch and his 78.7 yards per game are seventh in the league.
Every team would like a mulligan with offseason and preseason roster moves after the fact. There are several things Belichick could have done differently in assembling the roster that might have the 2017 Patriots already performing up to the high standards of their predecessors.
Belichick made a rare high-priced free-agent signing with cornerback Stephon Gilmore from the Bills. Gilmore received a five-year, $65 million contract containing $40 million in guarantees despite inconsistent play in 2016. Defensive breakdowns and untimely penalties have defined Gilmore's short stint in New England. He got the money cornerback Malcolm Butler, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2018, wanted from the Patriots. Butler is probably playing his final season in New England since Belichick investing heavily in two cornerbacks seems like a remote possibility.
Re-signing Logan Ryan, who was significantly cheaper than Gilmore, would have given New England a better shot to maintain continuity at cornerback because the chances of keeping Butler long term would have increased. The Titans pried Ryan away on a team-friendly three-year, $30 million contract in free agency, which can be exited after this year with minimal salary cap consequences because there is only a $2 million signing bonus. The $31 million Gilmore has fully guaranteed at signing is more than Ryan's entire contract.
Pursuing A.J. Bouye would have been a better option for a major expenditure at cornerback even though he was less of a known quantity than Gilmore. Bouye is proving with the Jaguars that he isn't just a contract year wonder. His Jaguars deal is also $65 million for five years. Bouye's $26 million fully guaranteed at signing is $5 million less than Gilmore's. He's also $1.5 million behind Gilmore after three years with $40.5 million.
Belichick jumped the gun at tight end by trading a 2017 fourth-round pick to the Colts for Dwayne Allen and a 2017 sixth-round pick. The same patience that was exhibited with linebacker Dont'a Hightower in free agency should have been exercised with Bennett. The Patriots were able to re-sign Hightower at a good value after he didn't generate the interest and offers he expected as a free agent.
The big payday Bennett was looking for on the open market never materialized although he was clearly the best tight end available. He took three years and $21 million from the Packers, with just $6.3 million of guaranteed money in the form of a signing bonus.
The Patriots assumed the final three years of Allen's contract worth $17.4 million in the trade. Allen has been a major disappointment. He has only been targeted six times in six games and doesn't have any catches. Bennett immediately made a difference in 2016 with the Patriots. He was invaluable in helping keep New England afloat as the key cog in the passing game while Brady was serving his four-game suspension relating to Deflategate and Gronkowski was recovering from a hamstring injury. Allen is probably going to be a one-year experiment costing $5 million where the Patriots are looking for a second tight end in 2018 unless his play drastically improves over the season. Bennett isn't thriving in his new environment either.
Under Belichick, the "Patriot Way" has been to get rid of a player a year too early rather than a year too late, whether it's because of salary, performance or age. Thirty-year-old running back LeGarrette Blount is the latest victim of the philosophy despite a career-high 1,161 rushing yards (eighth in the NFL) and a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns in 2016. He was one of the NFL's best veteran contract values because he was playing on a one year, $1 million deal worth up to $2 million through incentives.
The Patriots quickly signed Rex Burkhead to a one-year, $3.15 million deal in free agency because of his dual threat capabilities, which put Blount's return in jeopardy. Signing restricted free agent Mike Gillislee to a front-loaded two-year, $6.4 million offer sheet which the Bills didn't match made Blount expendable. Buffalo received New England's 2017 fifth-round pick as compensation. Blount didn't find a home until several days after the NFL Draft in early May. He signed a one-year, $1.25 million deal containing additional $1.55 million in incentives with the Eagles.
Blount still has some gas left in the tank. He has been far more productive this season than either Gillislee or Burkhead. Gillislee has been relatively quiet since scoring three touchdowns in the season opener, with 290 yards on 79 carries. Blount has 100 more rushing yards on nine fewer attempts in Philadelphia. He's averaging a career-best 5.6 yards per carry and is on pace for his second straight 1,000-yard season. Burkhead runs the risk of getting lost in New England's backfield shuffle because a rib injury has kept him out of action since the second game.
The Patriots might have been better served making Blount a signing priority in free agency rather than putting an offer sheet on Gillislee or obtaining Burkhead. The combined 2017 salaries for the new backfield acquisitions are $7.15 million.
Defensive end Kony Ealy, who had a disappointing 2016 season after a three-sack performance in Super Bowl 50, was acquired from the Panthers once the trading period opened in March. He only cost the Patriots eight spots in the draft with a move down from the bottom of the second round to the early part of the third round. Ealy was supposed to be a cost-effective replacement for Jabaal Sheard, who priced himself out of New England with the three-year, $25.5 million free agent-contract he received from the Colts. He didn't survive the roster cutdown although he is only making approximately $900,000 in the final year of his rookie contract. Ealy has become a regular contributor with the Jets since being claimed off waivers.
Belichick rebuffed all trade inquiries to keep Jimmy Garoppolo, who is widely considered the NFL's best backup quarterback, despite a willingness by teams to give up at least a first-round pick and possibly more for a largely unknown quantity in a contract year. Garoppolo looked like a quality starting quarterback in the most extensive game action of his career while Brady was suspended last season. In the six quarters Garoppolo played before being sidelined by a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder, he connected on 42 of 59 passes (71.2 completion percentage) for 496 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions to post a 119.0 passer rating.
The Patriots wouldn't have been able to command the king's ransom teams get to move out the top slots of the NFL Draft so a completely unproven commodity can be taken despite Garoppolo being less of a risk due to his success in limited NFL opportunities. For example, the Eagles gave the Browns the eighth pick in the 2016 draft, 2016 third- and fourth-round picks, a 2017 first-round pick and a 2018 second-round pick for the 2016 draft's second overall pick, which was used to select quarterback Carson Wentz, and a 2017 fourth-round pick.
The Browns reportedly made overtures to the Patriots during the draft. Perhaps the Browns wouldn't have sent the 12th overall pick to the Texans, who selected Deshaun Watson, in exchange for the 25th overall pick and their 2018 first-round pick if the Patriots had been receptive to moving Garoppolo.
Compensation similar to what the Eagles received from the Vikings for Sam Bradford when Teddy Bridgewater went down late last preseason with a gruesome knee injury wouldn't have been unreasonable. Bradford was dealt for a 2017 first-round pick (14th overall) and a conditional 2018 fourth-round pick.
Belichick traded third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett, a 2016 third-round pick, to the Colts for underachieving wide receiver Phillip Dorsett, who was a late first-round pick in 2015, several days before the regular season started instead. Brissett was rumored to be on the roster bubble when traded.
Belichick might have dealt the wrong backup quarterback considering the 40-year-old Brady is having an MVP-type season and intends to play into his mid-40s. Brissett has demonstrated that he's much more than a developmental prospect after being pressed into service while learning the Colts' offense on the fly because of Scott Tolzien's ineffectiveness in place of an injured Andrew Luck. He is a high quality backup at worst with the potential to be a solid starting quarterback. Dorsett's playtime has been limited since coming to New England. Unlike Garoppolo, Brissett's rookie contract runs through the 2019 season to coincide with the expiration of Brady's contract.
There has been speculation that Garoppolo will be franchised for upwards of a fully guaranteed $24 million in 2018 after he plays out his rookie contract. He could still be dealt, like Matt Cassel was in 2009 when franchised because Brady is keeping Father Time at bay. It remains to be seen whether Garoppolo's peak trade value was this offseason because of the dynamics with the franchise tag. Signing Garoppolo to a long-term deal or agreeing to contract parameters would be a requirement if acquiring him because a second franchise tag could be in excess of $28 million with a mandated 20 percent raise over his 2018 number. Keeping both Brady and Garoppolo after being franchised next year is impractical because it would require the Patriots to devote over $45 million of 2018 salary cap room to the two quarterbacks.
The draft capital Belichick would have had by not making most of the discussed moves and trading Garoppolo could have largely been used to infuse young talent into an underperforming defense. The Patriots only had four picks in the 2017 draft beginning in the middle of the third round.
It's impossible to know what players Belichick would have taken, especially because of his penchant for wheeling and dealing draft picks. One intriguing scenario is with the running back situation where Blount is kept and instead of signing Gillislee and Burkhead, a running back is drafted with one of the picks that was traded away for a veteran player. Alvin Kamara, who is developing into one of the NFL's best young dual-threat running backs, was taken by the Saints three spots after the pick dealt in the Kony Ealy trade with the 67th overall pick. His four-year contract of approximately $3.85 million is slightly over $700,000 more than Burkhead's one-year deal.
Belichick noted in a conference call Monday that it's incomprehensible to expect a finished product six weeks into season. The Patriots' relatively slow start (by their typical standards) will be a footnote in the 2017 season provided there's at least a seventh straight appearance in the AFC Championship Game. Fortunately for New England, the NFL doesn't seem to have any dominant teams and includes more mediocrity than in recent memory. The Patriots continuing to underachieve will likely bring about second guessing of Belichick's roster moves after the season that he isn't accustomed to and is usually reserved for other teams.
