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The Chicago Bears (1-2) host the Detroit Lions (0-3) at Soldier Field at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. All eyes are on Chicago quarterback Justin Fields, who will get his second NFL start after a disastrous debut last weekend against the Cleveland Browns. Detroit has played tough in its first three games, but hasn't been able to get new head coach Dan Campbell his first win of 2021.

Detroit is 1-5 against the Bears over the last three years, but the Lions' single win during that stretch came in their last meeting, which was also in Chicago. Chicago is favored by three points in the latest Bears vs. Lions odds on Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 41.5. Before entering any Lions vs. Bears picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bears vs. Lions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Lions vs. Bears:

  • Bears vs. Lions spread: Bears -3
  • Bears vs. Lions over-under: 41.5 points

What you need to know about the Bears

As poorly as Fields played in his first NFL start, there is reason for optimism in his second. Detroit is a bottom-third defense in the NFL when it comes to the rate that it has pressured opposing passers this season. Heading into Week 4, the Lions had allowed the 10th-most passing yards, and quarterbacks have run the ball 20 times on them this season; the fifth-most in the league.

The Lions give up a healthy 4.2 yards per rushing attempt, so Chicago running back David Montgomery should also rebound from a tough Week 3 performance. He had 36 carries in his first two games, but only had 10 against the Browns for 34 yards. Chicago head coach Matt Nagy's seat is heating up, and a big performance from Fields and the offense could fend off the vultures for another week and put the Bears back in the NFC North picture.

What you need to know about the Lions

The Lions lost in highly-frustrating fashion in Week 3, as Baltimore's Justin Tucker hit an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired. Ryan Santoso had put Detroit ahead on a 35-yard field goal with 1:04 left. D'Andre Swift had seven catches, 107 scrimmage yards and his first rushing score of the year vs. the Ravens. He has five rushing TDs in his last five road games. 

Jamaal Williams registered his second rushing TD of the season last week. T.J. Hockenson had seven receptions for 84 yards in his last matchup with the Bears. Kalif Raymond had 68 yards on a career-high six catches last week. 

How to make Lions vs. Bears picks

The model has simulated Bears vs. Lions 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bears vs. Lions? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.