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The Los Angeles Chargers have been able to navigate injuries on the offensive line and at running back to remain a legit contender in the AFC, and their next test comes against a Dallas Cowboys team that holds an extremely slim chance of still making the postseason entering Week 16. The Chargers are 10-4 and have won three in a row and are trying their best to catch the 12-2 Broncos atop the AFC West. The Cowboys made a surge to get over .500 but are now 6-7-1 and must win out and get some help to make the playoffs. 

Kickoff from AT&T Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Cowboys are 2.5-point home favorites, per the latest Chargers vs. Cowboys odds from DraftKings, while the over/under for total points scored is 49.5. Before making any Chargers vs. Cowboys picks of your own, make sure to look at the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. 

Where to watch Chargers vs. Cowboys on Sunday

When: Sunday, Dec. 21
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Stream: Fubo  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Chargers vs. Cowboys betting preview

Odds: Cowboys -2.5, Over/Under 49.5

The Cowboys have had one of the league's worst defenses this year, as well as arguably the top offense in the NFL, both of which are big reasons the team is 10-4 to the Over in 2025. The Chargers are 6-8 to the Over but are 8-6 against the spread. Dallas is 7-7 ATS, with two straight spread losses.

Chargers vs. Cowboys SGP

Bet it at DraftKings:

Model's Chargers vs. Cowboys score prediction, picks

The model sees value in backing the Chargers to leave Texas with their 11th win of the year as they win outright in 48% of simulations at plus money. Los Angeles also covers the 2.5-point spread in 53% of simulations, while the Over hits 56% of the time.

Chargers vs. Cowboys score prediction: Cowboys 27, Chargers 26

Want more Week 16 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 16 NFL game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.