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The Kansas City Chiefs are in the middle of the pack in rushing defense this season, allowing an average of 114.6 yards per game. However, they came up with a head-turning performance at Las Vegas last week, limiting the Raiders to 50 yards on the ground in a decisive 41-14 victory. Kansas City (6-4), which occupies first place in the AFC West and is riding a three-game winning streak, will face the league's fourth-best rushing attack when it hosts the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys (7-2) on Sunday. The Cowboys, who trounced Atlanta 43-3 last time out, are averaging 139.6 yards on the ground and rank first in total offense (433.9 yards) and scoring (31.6 points). Cowboys receiver Amari Cooper is out due to COVID-19.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 55.5. Before locking in any Cowboys vs. Chiefs picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-89 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick 'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Cowboys 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Cowboys vs. Chiefs: 

  • Chiefs vs. Cowboys spread: Kansas City -2.5
  • Chiefs vs. Cowboys over-under: 55.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Cowboys money line: Kansas City -140, Dallas +120
  • KC: Chiefs are 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games
  • DAL: Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests

Why the Chiefs can cover

After bearing little resemblance to his usual self during the first half of the season, Patrick Mahomes put on a display reminiscent of his first three years as a starting quarterback in the victory at Las Vegas. The Super Bowl LIV MVP tied the NFL record with his third career 400-yard, five-touchdown performance. Mahomes, who is second in the league with 2,940 yards and 25 scoring passes, was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week and joined Derrick Thomas (eight) and Dante Hall as the only Chiefs to earn Player of the Week honors at least seven times.

The club has played much better defensively, as it has permitted an average of 12.7 points during its three-game winning streak after yielding 29 per contest over its first seven outings. Selected out of Missouri in the second round of this year's NFL Draft, linebacker Nick Bolton leads the Chiefs, and all NFL rookies, with 75 tackles.

Why Cowboys can cover

Dallas reached the 40-point mark for the third time this season in its rout of the Falcons and leads the NFL with an average of 31.6 per game. The Cowboys set the franchise record for most points in a quarter by scoring 29 in the second and posted their biggest halftime lead in 50 years with a 36-3 cushion. Dak Prescott ran for a touchdown and threw a pair of scores, marking the sixth straight game and seventh time in his eight outings this season that he's made two or more TD passes.

It was the 17th time Prescott has notched a passing and rushing touchdown in the same game, the fourth-most by a player over his first six years in the league behind Cam Newton's 35, Daunte Culpepper's 20 and Josh Allen's 19. CeeDee Lamb, who had six catches for 94 yards and two TDs last week, has posted all three of his 100-yard performances this year on the road. Fellow wideout Michael Gallup gives Prescott yet another option as he returned to action against Atlanta and had three receptions for 42 yards after missing the previous seven contests with a calf strain.

How to make Cowboys vs. Falcons picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under the total, projecting the teams to combine for 53 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's Chiefs vs. Cowboys picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Cowboys vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cowboys vs. Chiefs spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,500 on its NFL picks, and find out.