'Monday Night Football' prediction: Redskins rout Panthers in Norman's revenge game
Plus five stats to know about the game
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6 min read
On Monday night, there'll be pretty much nothing on the line for the Panthers. They're 5-8 and all but out of the playoff race. But, despite the Panthers' disappointing season, they still have one thing to play for this late in the year. They can spoil the Redskins' playoff hopes, which means they can ruin Josh Norman's season.
On the other side of the field, everything is stake for the Redskins. At 7-5-1, the Redskins are currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff standings, thanks to the Buccaneers' loss to the Cowboys on Sunday night. They can't afford to drop a home game to a sub-.500 team.
Plus, Norman won't be happy if he loses to the team that didn't think he was worth a mega long-term deal. A year ago, Norman was making his case to be the league's Defensive Player of the Year in the middle of the Panthers' 15-1 season. But Norman didn't capture the award and the Panthers lost in the Super Bowl, which shockingly ended up being the final game of Norman's career in Carolina.
After the season, the Panthers franchise tagged Norman, but lifted the tag a month after free agency began. Norman landed with the Redskins for only $50 million guaranteed, which of course made the Panthers' decision to let him walk seem like a fine choice. After all, Norman was just the product of a zone scheme and the Panthers could just plug in a young cornerback to play behind their dominant front-seven, right?
Yeah, not quite. Norman hasn't been great this season, but he's been solid. And the Panthers haven't been great on defense, they've been reduced to average. So, on Monday night, expect Norman to take his revenge.
Even though I just saw "Rogue One," which is the best "Star Wars" movie since, well, ever (yeah, I said it), I can't side with the underdog in this story.
The prediction: Redskins 34, Panthers 20.
OK, let's get to the stats to know for this game.
1. Kirk Cousins' impressive follow up
It's unbelievable that I'm even writing this, but the Redskins will enter the game with the better of the two quarterbacks. It's unbelievable because I'm actually writing about Kirk Cousins being a better quarterback than Cam Newton in 2016. Of course, tons of that has to do with each of their supporting casts.
Cousins has a fleet of Star Destroyers at his disposal. Newton is leading a rag-tag group of rebellion fighters. Last "Star Wars" reference, I promise.
But that doesn't change the fact that Cousins has been incredible effective in a second consecutive contract season. Heading into Week 15, Cousins ranked fifth in completion percentage (67.5), third in yards per attempt (8.17), tied for ninth in touchdown passes (23), and sixth in passer rating (100.3). Again, his supporting cast is brilliant and I think more than a few other quarterbacks would succeed within that offense, but give Cousins credit for what he's done.
To accomplish that impressive stat line, Cousins has held onto the football longer than most quarterbacks, giving his targets time to get open down the field. According to Pro Football Focus, Cousins holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds on 51.4 percent of his passes (the sixth highest percentage in the NFL), which has resulted in a 105.8 passer rating. On those lengthy dropbacks, he's been sacked just 14 times -- the fifth-lowest total in the league. Despite holding onto the ball for so long, Cousins ranks 18th overall in the NFL in pressure percentage, according to PFF. He's been sacked 18 times -- the third lowest total in the NFL. And for the first time since Oct. 30, the Redskins expect to trot out their entire starting offensive line.
So, you shouldn't be surprised to hear that Cousins has accumulated the league's third-highest passer rating (128.5) on throws that travel at least 20 yards downfield. This is a difficult offense to stop. And the Panthers likely won't be up to the task.
Here's something to watch: Jordan Reed's status. The tight end, who is dealing with a shoulder injury, is an incredibly important piece of the Redskins' offense. Cousins has a 111.1 passer rating when targeting him.
He's officially listed as questionable.
2. The Panthers' defense: Meh
The Panthers' defense is not good, but they're also not awful. They're pretty much an average-ish unit.
They give up 362.5 yards per game (23rd), 25.9 points per game (26th), and are ranked 12th in defensive DVOA. The biggest difference from last year to this year? Turnovers.
A year ago, the Panthers notched a league-leading 39 takeaways. This year, the Panthers have 22 takeaways, which is tied for the ninth most.
The bad news for the Panthers? The Redskins have committed the 10th-fewest turnovers this year.
If the Panthers want to win, they'll need to snag a few takeaways. They can do that by generating pressure against Cousins. According to PFF, the Panthers force pressure on 36.8 percent of the time. Cousins has been under pressure on 32 percent of his passes. His passer rating drops from 110.9 to 74.6 when pressured. But, again, the problem is that Cousins is often so well-protected.
Luke Kuechly, arguably the most important player on the defense, hasn't played since suffering a concussion in mid-November. He was cleared to return Saturday, but it's still unclear if he'll play, given his continued concussion issues and the Panthers' already lost season.
From what I've been hearing this week, sounds like Panthers have reversed course. Doubt Luke Kuechly plays again this year.
— Black & Blue Review (@BlackBlueReview) December 17, 2016
He's officially listed as questionable.
3. Cam Newton's disappointing follow up
A year ago, Cam Newton was the most valuable player in football. This year, Newton's regressed substantially in pretty much every statistic.
| Comp. % | YPA | TD % | INT % | Rating | |
| '15 Newton | 59.8 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 99.4 |
| '16 Newton | 53.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 78.9 |
But this section won't be a deep dive into Newton's regression, because a lot of it has to do with his supporting cast. Consider this: A year ago, the Panthers averaged 142.6 rushing yards per game. This year, they're averaging 109.2.
So, let's look at how Newton can potentially succeed against the Redskins.
One area is the deep ball. Newton is actually experiencing a successful season when he throws 20-plus yards downfield, accumulating a 108.2 passer rating (10th), per PFF. The Redskins, on the other hand, have had some issues defending deep passes. Per PFF's metrics, the Redskins have allowed a 41.9 completion percentage, six touchdowns, zero picks, and a 128.6 passer rating on such passes.
If the Panthers can connect on a few bombs, they'll have a chance. Unfortunately, that mean relying on Ted Ginn Jr. to come down with those passes, which is pretty much the most unreliable thing ever. He does, however, have three touchdowns in his past four games. Meanwhile, Kelvin Benjamin is dealing with a back injury and is questionable to play.
On the flipside, the Redskins' defense can beat Newton by applying pressure. Newton's passer rating when under duress is 54.0 and he's dealt with the ninth highest pressure percentage, per PFF.
4. Josh Norman's revenge
No, Josh Norman hasn't been one of the league's best players this season. But that doesn't mean he's been bad. He's allowed 35 reception on 65 targets for 466 yards, three touchdowns, and an 85.8 passer rating, per PFF. He's picked off one pass. He's been fine, but probably not worth that contract.
But I'm expecting Norman to have a dominant outing against the Panthers, because their receivers aren't any good. Ginn Jr. is explosive, but unreliable in catching the ball. When Newton throws to his No. 1 receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, he has an 85.6 passer rating. His favorite target is Greg Olsen and don't expect Norman to get matched up with him too often.
5. The Redskins' running game
It's not just Cousins and the passing game. The Redskins can run the ball, relying primarily on Robert Kelley.
They're ranked sixth as a team with 4.5 yards per carry. Carolina, though, has been tough against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry -- also ranked sixth.
This will be a matchup to watch. If the Panthers can turn the Redskins into a one-dimensional offense, they'll have a chance.
