NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race comes down to one final game for Tyler Shough and Tetairoa McMillan

The OROY race is an incredibly close one

The NFL's MVP race received quite a shake-up on Monday night, when Matthew Stafford threw three interceptions in a 27-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Now, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is a heavy favorite over at DraftKings Sportsbook, listed at -400 to win MVP. 

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is favored to win Offensive Player of the Year (-275), Cleveland Browns star pass rusher Myles Garrett has long been the heavy favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year (-20000) and Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger is the easy choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year (-700). But what about Offensive Rookie of the Year?

The Offensive Rookie of the Year race has been fascinating to watch. It looked like it would be a two-horse race between Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka and Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren, but two new players have emerged as the favorites: Carolina Panthers wideout Tetairoa McMillan and New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough. 

McMillan is listed at -135 to win the award, while Shough is listed at +140. Who wins this award will be decided by Week 18. Let's take a look at the two favorites to win OROY. 

WR Tetairoa McMillan (-135)

Tetairoa McMillan has caught 66 passes for 929 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games played. His 929 receiving yards rank second in franchise history by a first-year player, behind Kelvin Benjamin's 1,008 yards in 2014. However, McMillan is coming off his worst performance of the season, as he caught just one of four targets for 5 yards in the 27-10 loss to the Seahawks. McMillan was battling an illness, but attempted to play through it.

Perhaps a reason McMillan is favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year is because he has an opportunity to dice up a reeling defense in a win-and-in situation. The Panthers play the Buccaneers this Saturday potentially for the NFC South title. The Buccaneers have lost seven out of their last eight games, and have what is statistically the seventh-worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing 236.4 passing yards per game. Three weeks ago, Kirk Cousins threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns for the Falcons in an upset win in Tampa. Two weeks ago, McMillan caught six passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in a 23-20 win for the Panthers over the Buccaneers. This past Sunday, the Bucs allowed Quinn Ewers to register his first NFL win, 20-17. The rookie out of Texas threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns.

If McMillan can turn in an impressive performance on Saturday and guide the Panthers to the playoffs, he should win Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

QB Tyler Shough (+140)

Tyler Shough has all the momentum going for him right now, and looks like a good bet at +140. However, his nine starts would be the fewest ever by a quarterback to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. In 10 total games played, the second-round pick out of Louisville has completed 67.8% of his passes for 2,125 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. 

On Sunday, Shough completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns in a comeback win over the Tennessee Titans. Those 333 passing yards are the most by a Saints rookie all time, and Shough's 5-3 record is the best record by a rookie quarterback in franchise history as well. New Orleans has won four straight games, and has a chance to keep McMillan's Panthers out of the playoffs with a win over the Falcons on Sunday. 

Shough may be a 26-year-old rookie, but he's been the best first-year signal-caller this season. 

Player	Record as starter	Completion percentage	Passing yards per game	Yards per attempt	Passer rating
Tyler Shough, Saints	5-3	67.8%	212.5	7.3	92.1
Cam Ward, Titans	3-13	59.6%	194.8	5.8	79.8
Shedeur Sanders, Browns	2-4	57.4%	184.1	6.8	68.5
Jaxson Dart, Giants	3-8	63.2%	157.1	6.7	89.8