Imagn Images

The Week 18 NFL schedule begins with a crucial NFC South matchup on Saturday afternoon when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Carolina Panthers at 4:30 p.m. ET. Carolina can clinch the division title with a win or an Atlanta win over New Orleans on Sunday. The Buccaneers have lost seven of their last eight games, including a 23-20 loss at Carolina in Week 16. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was limited to just 145 passing yards and one touchdown in that matchup, but he has 25 passing touchdowns this season. SportsLine's proven computer model likes him to go Over 1.5 passing touchdowns on Saturday.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Top Buccaneers vs. Panthers props

  • Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-103)
  • Jalen Coker, Panthers, Over 34.5 receiving yards (-111)
  • Panthers first half team total Over 9.5 points (-140)

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Mayfield only had one passing touchdown against Carolina two weeks ago, but he bracketed that game with a pair of two-touchdown performances against the Falcons and Dolphins. He had 346 passing yards and two scores last week at Miami, and Tampa Bay will not leave anything on the table in this elimination game. Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight games this season, and he racked up five touchdown passes at home against the Panthers last year. SportsLine's model has Mayfield finishing with 1.9 touchdown passes on Saturday, providing value on this line. 

Jalen Coker, Panthers, Over 34.5 receiving yards

The second-year wideout ranks second on the team with 347 receiving yards this season, despite ranking fifth in targets. He is averaging 12.9 yards per catch, providing a deep threat for quarterback Bryce Young. Coker was targeted five times against Tampa Bay two weeks ago, hauling in three of those passes for 47 yards. He had 60 yards against New Orleans the previous game and 74 yards against the Rams at the end of November, so he has been getting better at the end of the campaign. The model has him catching 2.9 passes for 40 yards in the latest simulations for Saturday's game. 

Panthers first half team total Over 9.5 points (-140)

Carolina jumped out to a 13-10 lead at halftime against Tampa Bay in the first meeting before ultimately winning on a field goal with just over two minutes remaining. The Panthers have scored at least 10 points in the first half of three of their last four games, and they are facing a Tampa Bay defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in points allowed per game. The Buccaneers have given up double digits in three straight opening halves, and the model has Carolina scoring 22 total points on Saturday to point to value on this first-half line.