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USATSI

We had a meh week in Week 10, going 8-6 against the spread. We had a losing record in our top five picks for the first time in several weeks, as Justin Fields was let down by the rest of his Chicago Bears teammates, the Seattle Seahawks came back to earth in Germany and the Dallas Cowboys blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to the Green Bay Packers, and lost in overtime. I have to say, I am not as high on the Cowboys as contenders anymore after watching that game. Yikes.

Week 11 provides us with another interesting slate. Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans travel north to take on the Packers, the Buffalo Bills host the Cleveland Browns in a game that will reportedly feature a million feet of snow and the Cowboys have a chance to reclaim some momentum against an 8-1 Vikings team in Minnesota.

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 26-23-1
Overall ATS record: 81-65-4
Straight up record: 95-54-1

Washington Commanders (-3) at Houston Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

My left hand has been up ever since the Commanders' upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles. I was surprised, but not shocked. (We had Washington +11 in the column last week). NFC East opponents probably have a bit of an upper hand when it comes to facing off against the Eagles -- yes even the Commanders. They controlled time of possession, ran the ball well and won the turnover battle. Plus, Taylor Heinicke gave us more magic. 

I wouldn't want Heinicke as my franchise quarterback, but I would want him on my roster. In fact, I would put him in the elite tier of backup quarterbacks. The kid is a competitor, and the Washington fan base loves him -- as do his teammates. He's 9-2-1 ATS in his past 12 starts, and the Commanders are top three in the NFL when it comes to record (4-1), scoring defense (17.0 points per game) and takeaways (10) since Week 6. 

The Texans have lost four straight games, while the Commanders are flying high. Plus, Washington gets Chase Young back this week! Three points feels too low. 

The pick: Commanders -3 
Projected score: Commanders 24-17

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I'm gonna go ahead and go back to the well. Both of these teams are coming off of their bye weeks, but the Patriots beat the Jets in New York, 22-17, just three weeks ago. The final score was not indicative of how the game felt, as Zach Wilson threw three interceptions and drew criticism from both the local and national media. It's not a secret that the Jets' winning formula is playing great defense and running the football. They aren't relying on Wilson to throw touchdowns and win games with his arm. 

Wilson has struggled mightily against the Patriots. He's 0-3 SU and ATS with two passing touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, and has a 50.5 career passer rating vs. New England. That's the third-worst passer rating against a single opponent by any active quarterback. Bill Belichick knows how to rattle these young signal-callers, and someone needs to call the cops for what he's done to Wilson. The BYU product has a 6.6 passer rating when pressured, which is on pace to be the worst by a quarterback in the past five seasons. The Bills didn't pressure Wilson at all a couple weeks ago, and it was a big reason why they lost.

I understand Mac Jones and the Patriots haven't been great this year, but they may put together a strong second half of the season. They've won 13 straight against the Jets and are at home this week, so I'll lay three points. 

The pick: Patriots -3 
Projected score: Patriots 26-20

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Eagles were bound to lose at some point, and honestly, what happened on Monday night was probably a good thing. All that "undefeated" talk can cease, and Philly can regroup. The Eagles are still the best team in the NFC in my mind.

The Jeff Saturday-led Colts are fascinating to me. I think going back to Matt Ryan was the right move, and I believe this team is now playing with some juice. It's always scary to fade a team like that -- especially at home -- but this could be a rebound spot for the Eagles. They have the best turnover margin in the NFL this season (+13), while the Colts have the second-worst turnover margin (-9). I like getting the number at seven as well. Philly is 5-4 ATS this season while Indy is 4-6 ATS. 

The pick: Eagles -7 
Projected score: Eagles 30-20

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

I don't really have any advanced statistics for you on this matchup, but doesn't 13 points just feel like too much? I think the Ravens are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and this new-look defense is playing with energy. But, the number feels big. 

The Panthers lost by 21 points in their last road game, but P.J. Walker started that matchup and was benched for Baker Mayfield -- who played much better. Mayfield is returning to the starting lineup this week, so maybe he brings some juice. 

D'Onta Foreman is a legitimate stud, and has three 100-yard rushing outings in his last four games. The Panthers are averaging 160 rushing yards per game in the four contests since Christian McCaffrey was traded -- 70 more yards per game than when they had McCaffrey. The bottom line is I'm going to take 13 points more often than not. 

The pick: Panthers +13 
Projected score: Ravens 29-17

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

I don't love making the Chiefs a best bet because they aren't some juggernaut against the spread. They are 4-5 ATS on the season, but did come through for me last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Patrick Mahomes is 1-3 ATS vs. Justin Herbert, but the Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight road games against the Chargers. This L.A. team is competitive, but also banged-up. 

The Chiefs average more points per game than any other NFL team (30.0), and have won 24 straight games in Nov.-Dec. That's the longest such streak since 1970. I'll take this number under six points. Since 2020, Mahomes' offense is averaging 36.7 points per game in road primetime games (six contests).  

The pick: Chiefs -5.5
Projected score: Chiefs 31-23

Other Week 11 picks

Titans (+3) 23-21 over Packers
Bills (-8) 20-10 over Browns
Giants (-3) 24-20 over Lions
Saints (-3.5) 27-14 over Rams
Bears (+3) 28-27 over Falcons
Bengals 23-20 over Steelers (+3.5)
Raiders (+2.5) 27-21 over Broncos
Vikings (+1.5) 28-26 over Cowboys
49ers (-8) 28-18 over Cardinals