NFL Week 16 early odds: Here's why winless Browns could pull Christmas Eve miracle
Here's an early look at the lines for all NFL games being played in Week 16
No one does Christmas miracles better than Hue Jackson, which is a good thing for the Browns because Divine help might be the only way they don't finish 0-16 this year.
Although there's no reason to believe the Browns will pick up their first win of the season in Chicago on Sunday, there are two small stats that might give Browns fans a small bit of hope heading into Week 16.
First, the Browns might be 0-14, but Christmas Eve is the one time you don't want to bet against Jackson. Since December 2011, Jackson is 2-0 on Christmas Eve and 0-32 in all other games. That might be a small sample size, but if you're a Browns fan that should be plenty: YOUR COACH IS UNDEFEATED ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
That 2-0 total includes a Christmas Eve win last season when Cleveland beat the Chargers 20-17 in a game where they were a 4.5-point underdog. This year, the Browns have opened as a seven-point underdog on the road against the Bears, and that's where our second stat comes in.
If the Christmas Eve number didn't blow your mind, this one might: The Bears are 0-7 straight-up in their past seven games as a favorite.
Two of those losses actually came this year: Back in Week 13, the Bears lost 15-14 as a 2.5-point favorite to the 49ers and then back in Week 10, they also lost to the Brett Hundley led Packers as a 4.5-point favorite. The ugly part for the Bears is that six of those seven losses have come at Soldier Field, which is where Sunday's game will be played.
Maybe next week we will have a Christmas Miracle #Browns
— Tetyana Bissell (@TetyanaMarie) December 17, 2017
Browns fans are banking on a Christmas miracle, so we'll see if Santa Hue delivers.
As for the other odds this week, the Raiders are the biggest underdog that they've been all season and the Cowboys are favored to beat the Seahawks.
Let's get to the odds and check everything out.
NFL Week 16 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Colts (3-11) at Ravens (8-6), Saturday
Opening line: Ravens, -12.5 points
The Ravens have been one of the safest bets in football over the past few weeks. Since a 40-0 win over the Dolphins back in Week 8, the Ravens have gone 5-1-1 ATS and this week, they're getting a Colts team that has been horrible on the road this year. Not only are the Colts 1-6 straight up on the road, but they're also just 2-5 ATS. The Colts have also been one of the NFL's worst teams since Thanksgiving, going 0-4 both straight-up and ATS. One thing to keep in mind here is that the Ravens have been horrible at covering large spreads over the years. Since 2010, the Ravens have been favored by 10 or more points a total of 11 times and they've gone 2-9 ATS in those games (10-1 straight-up).
Vikings (11-3) at Packers (7-7), Saturday
Opening line: No Line
It might seem odd that there's no line but for this game, but the likely reason for that is that oddsmakers have no way of knowing for sure if Aaron Rodgers is going to play. With the Packers all but eliminated from playoff contention, the Packers might decide that there's no reason to risk Rodgers' health by playing him over the final two games of the season. Of course, there's always that chance that Rodgers will demand to play as a way to get revenge on the team that injured him. Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone back in October after taking a hit from Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr. No matter what the line is in this game, keep in mind that the Vikings are an NFL best 10-4 ATS this year. They've also won three of their past four against the Packers.
Browns (0-14) at Bears (4-10)
Opening line: Bears, -7 points
The Browns don't just have the worst record in football, they're also just 3-11 ATS, which makes them the worst team in the NFL at covering the spread (This means you should never bet on them). The only thing worse than the Browns ability to cover is the Bears' ability cover as a home favorite. Although the Bears are 4-2-1 ATS at home this season, they're 0-2 as a home favorite. If Cleveland does somehow pull the upset in this game, it would definitely qualify as a Christmas miracle and that's mainly because the Browns haven't won in Chicago since 1969. That win came at Wrigley Field, which isn't really used for professional football anymore.
Lions (8-6) at Bengals (5-9)
Opening line: Lions, -3 points
The Lions have had some serious trouble beating the Bengals over the past 25 years. The Bengals have won five straight in this series and haven't lost a game to the Lions since 1992. It's not just the Lions, though, for some reason, most NFC teams seem to have trouble beating the Bengals in Cincinnati. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Bengals have only lost one game at home to an NFC team (6-1-2). Of course, if you're going to take the Lions, this might be the year to do it. The Bengals have played two straight games against the NFC North and have been outscored 67-14, so it wouldn't be a shock to see the Lions continue that streak. Detroit is 5-2 on the road this year and 4-2-1 ATS.
Rams (10-4) at Titans (8-6)
Opening line: Rams, -6.5 points
The Titans have had some serious trouble against the NFC West over the past two weeks, going 0-2 both straight-up and ATS in games against the Cardinals and 49ers. To end that streak, they're going to have beat a Rams team that's an NFC best 6-1 on the road this season, that total includes a 5-2 mark ATS. The Rams have also gone 7-2 ATS in their past nine games. This game will mark only the third time that the Rams have played in Nashville where they have yet to record a win.
Dolphins (6-8) at Chiefs (8-6)
Opening line: Chiefs, -10 points
This game will mark only the fifth time in the Andy Reid era that the Chiefs have been favored by 10 or more points in a game. In the three previous games, the Chiefs went 3-1 straight-up, but just 1-3 ATS. It's probably also worth mentioning that the one loss came earlier this season when the Giants beat the Chiefs 12-9 as a 10-point underdog in Week 11. One other thing to keep in mind is that the Dolphins actually have a WINNING RECORD as a double-digit underdog this year. The Dolphins are 2-1 straight-up this season when they're an underdog of 10 or more points while the rest of the NFL is 2-18 combined.
Bills (8-6) at Patriots (11-3)
Opening line: Patriots, -10.5 points
This has been one of the most lopsided rivalries in recent NFL history and it's thanks in large part to Tom Brady. The Patriots quarterback is 27-3 all-time against the Bills in his career, which is the most wins that any quarterback has against any one team in NFL history. Of course, winning and covering a 10.5-point spread are two completely different things. That being said, there's no team better than the Patriots at covering huge spreads. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Patriots are 8-2 ATS in games where they're favored by 10 or more points (9-1 straight-up). Overall, the Patriots are 9-5 ATS on the year, which is tied for the third best mark in the NFL. When these two teams met earlier this season, the Patriots covered as a 7.5 point favorite with a 23-3 win over the Bills back in Week 13.
Falcons (8-5) at Saints (10-4)
Opening line: Saints, -5 points
The Falcons have won three straight in this series, including a wild win back in Week 14 when they covered as a 2.5 point favorite in a 20-17 win. For the Falcons to keep their streak going, they're going to have to beat the Saints in New Orleans, where they're 6-1 this year (although they're just 4-3 ATS). One reason to like the Saints in this game is that since 2015, they're an NFL-best 12-4 ATS against divisional opponents. On the other hand, the Falcons are 3-0 both straight-up and ATS in their past three December road games.
Chargers (7-7) at Jets (5-9)
Opening line: Chargers, -7.5 points
For some reason that defies all logic, the Jets continue to be the safest home bet in the NFL this year. Although the Jets are just 4-3 in home games, they're 6-1 ATS, which is tied with the Vikings for the best home mark in 2017. The Jets might be able improve on that mark and that's mainly because they're going up against a Chargers team that has struggled in games that kickoff at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Chargers are just 3-9 straight-up in games played during the early window.
Broncos (5-9) at Redskins (6-8)
Opening line: Redskins, -4.5 points
The Broncos win over the Colts in Week 15 was notable because it was the FIRST TIME all year that they won a game on the road. In seven road games, the Broncos have gone 1-6 both straight-up and ATS, with that ATS mark being the worst in the NFL this year (Yes, even worse than the Browns). Denver is also 4-9-1 ATS overall on the season, which is the third worst mark in the NFL this year. The Broncos also haven't won in Washington since 1998.
Buccaneers (4-9) at Panthers (10-4)
Opening line: Panthers, -9.5 points
Not only has it been an ugly season for the Buccaneers, but it's been an ugly season for anyone who's been betting on them. Not including Monday's game against the Falcons, the Bucs are 3-9-1 ATS this season, which is the second worst mark in the NFL this season. The Bucs are actually even worse on the road, going just 1-5-1 ATS. This game actually only marks the sixth time in Cam Newton's career that the Panthers have been favored by nine or more points. In the five prior games, the Panthers have gone 5-0 straight-up and 3-1-1 ATS. For the 2017 season, the Panthers are 9-5 ATS, which is tied for the third best mark in the NFL. That total includes a Week 8 game where the Panthers covered as a 1.5-point underdog in a 17-3 win over the Buccaneers.
Jaguars (10-4) at 49ers (4-10)
Opening line: Jaguars, -5.5 points
The Jaguars might seem like the easy pick here, but you might want to think twice before you bet against the magic of Jimmy Garoppolo, who has turned into the most unbeatable NFL quarterback in more than a decade. The 49ers quarterback has started a total of five games in his career and he's 5-0 both straight-up AND against the spread in those games. Jimmy G is the first quarterback since Ben Roethlisbeger in 2004 to win his first five games. Of course, Jimmy hasn't had to face a team like the Jaguars yet. The 10-4 Jaguars are 9-5 ATS on the season, which is tied for the third best mark in the NFL. Although the Jags have been dominant this year, two of their four losses have come against the NFC West. Also, they still need to figure out how to win on the road in December. Since 2011, the Jags are just 1-11 in December road games and they haven't won a game in California since 2005 (0-6).
Seahawks (8-6) at Cowboys (8-6)
Opening line: Cowboys, -3 points
With both teams sitting at 8-6, this will basically be a playoff elimination game. The Cowboys will be getting Ezekiel Elliott back this week, which is good news for the Cowboys because the Seahawks have had some serious trouble stopping the run over the past two weeks in losses to the Jaguars (141 yards rushing) and Rams (244 yards rushing). This game will mark the fifth time this season that the Seahawks have been a road underdog and the results so far haven't been good. In the four prior games, the Seahawks went 1-3 both straight-up and ATS. Overall, Seattle is 5-8-1 ATS this year, which is the worst mark for any team that currently has a winning record.
Giants (2-12) at Cardinals (6-8)
Opening line: Cardinals, -5 points
Five points might not seem like a big number, but it is to the Cardinals because they seem to have a difficult time covering anything larger than that. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Cardinals have gone 5-10-1 ATS in games where they're favored by five or more points. They've also been pretty bad at covering the spread in 2017 with an ATS of 4-9-1, which is tied for the third worst mark in the NFL this season. As for the Giants, although they're just 1-6 on the road this year, they are 4-3 ATS. One other thing to keep in mind is that Eli Manning has never lost at University of Phoenix Stadium (2-0).
Steelers (11-3) at Texans (4-10), Monday
Opening line: Steelers, -10 points
Although the Steelers are nearly unbeatable as a double-digit favorite, they almost never cover the spread in those wins. Since 2011, the Steelers have been favored by 10 or more points a total of 13 times and they've gone just 4-9 ATS in those games (12-1 straight-up). That includes a 2017 mark of 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite. As a matter of fact, in all three games where the Steelers were favored by 10 or more points this year, they ended up winning by exactly three points each time in games against the Browns (Week 1), Colts and Packers. As for the Texans, they're an ugly 0-4 ATS in their past four games.
Raiders (6-8) at Eagles (12-2), Monday
Opening line: Eagles, -8 points
It appears that oddsmakers are sold on Nick Foles after just one game. Even though this will be just his second start of the season, the Eagles are still favored by eight points, which is the third most points they've been favored by all season. Of course, the good news for the Eagles is that they went 2-0 ATS in the prior two games where they were favored by eight or more points. The Eagles are also 10-4 ATS on the season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. Not to mention, they're also 5-1 ATS at home, which is the the third best mark in the NFL. This will be the biggest point spread the Raiders have faced since 2014. The only other time the Raiders were an underdog of seven or more points this season came in Week 11, when they lost to the Patriots 33-8 as an 11-point underdog.
















