NFL Week 17 early picks: Back the Bills and Packers, plus a Christmas play
CBS Sports NFL expert Will Brinson breaks down all the bets to jump on early for Week 17 of the NFL season
Motivation is about to become key for NFL teams down the stretch. We now know 10 of the possible 14 playoff teams, with the 49ers' win on Monday locking in three more AFC teams for bids. The AFC North and the NFC South are the only divisions without a clinched playoff berth and one wild card spot remains open in each conference.
While there's only four spots remaining, there's plenty still left to be decided from a seeding perspective on both sides of the bracket.
Expect plenty more NFL betting chaos to come this week and through the rest of the season, but this late in the season, always be mindful of motivation when looking at lines, especially early in the week. Let's dive into some early Week 17 plays.
Bet it now: Lions -6 at Vikings
Bet on the Lions to cover with the DraftKings promo code:
This is already a big road divisional spread here -- and we'll cover it more in depth with our Christmas betting guide on Wednesday -- but I think it could get bigger, depending on what the quarterback situation is for the Vikings.
Detroit is backed into a corner and extremely desperate. The loss to the Steelers in Week 16 means the Lions have to win out and the Packers have to lose out in order for Detroit to make the postseason.
Green Bay plays on Saturday, so the Lions can't be eliminated by the time they kick off in Minnesota on Christmas afternoon. That matters a lot for our purposes here, as Dan Campbell's crew will give it their all and hope the Ravens can take care of business against the Packers a few days later.
The Vikings won despite missing J.J. McCarthy for the second half against the Giants and the short turnaround here means it may be a tough ask for him to be ready for Thursday. This line could easily move past 7 if it's Max Brosmer under center, so we're grabbing it now.
Bet it now: Packers -2.5 vs. Ravens
Back Green Bay against Baltimore at DraftKings:
If you're a bettor, it would be foolish not to bet the Packers before this number moves past 3 while we wait to hear what Lamar Jackson's status is.
Lamar's dealing with a back injury he's calling "BS" -- not because of the injury but how it happened -- and he wasn't available for the end of the Ravens' Sunday night loss to the Patriots, which put their playoff hopes in jeopardy.
Both of these teams are in a dogfight to make the postseason, but if we're getting the Packers at home with a rest advantage and the Ravens missing Jackson, it's impossible not to back them at less than a field goal.
This spread will tighten if Jackson suits up, but I'll take my chances on Tuesdsay.
Bet it now: Jaguars at Colts Over 47.5
Take the Over for Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis at DraftKings:
This total could end up being dependent on earlier games. If the Broncos beat the Chiefs (Denver is a huge road favorite) and the Chargers beat the Texans (Los Angeles is a short home favorite), the Colts are still alive for the playoffs, but would obviously need to win at home against the Jaguars.
Beating Jacksonville is a tall task, but we saw how the Colts stepped up against a suddenly dominant 49ers team Sunday. Philip Rivers looked much more explosive down the field, but the defense just couldn't stop Brock Purdy.
I'm willing to take the chance on the -111 two-game parlay hitting, the Colts believing they're still alive for the postseason and showing up with a strong offensive performance. Trevor Lawrence won't be slowed down in this game either and we should clear 50 points pretty easily with a motivated Colts team and a high-powered Jags team playing on an indoor track.
Bet it now: Bills money line
Back the Bills to beat the Eagles at DraftKings:
The Bills clinched a playoff spot with the Colts loss on Monday night, but they still have the division title to play for. It's a longshot for sure, but they wouldn't be eliminated even by the Patriots beating the Jets in the early window on Sunday.
If the Pats win and the Bills lose, however, Buffalo would be toast. So expect a fully motivated Josh Allen in this one -- it's far too early for the Bills to worry about who they might be facing in the playoffs, although the matchup is probably on the road against the AFC North winner.
But as long as that division hope is still alive, I think they'll be coming out guns blazing against an Eagles team they believe could be a potential Super Bowl opponent in a few short weeks.
