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It's do-or-die time for several NFL teams in NFL Week 18, but some others are simply looking toward the NFL Draft. Both games Saturday will decide NFC divisions, with the Buccaneers vs. Panthers to determine the South title and Seahawks vs. 49ers to decide the West and the conference's top seed. Many teams playing Sunday have already been eliminated from the postseason, so gauging motivation is a key piece to successful Week 18 NFL betting. NFL betting expert Jeff Hochman has scoured the schedule with that in mind and has put together two three-leg money-line parlays for Week 18, with one consisting solely of favorites, and the other of three underdogs. 

NFL three-team favorite money line parlay benefits

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a three-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-24, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70-80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting at 71.8%.

It wasn't until Week 17 that NFL betting favorites suffered their worst performance of the season, going just 9-7. Over the full year, favorites are still winning at a solid rate -- 171 out of 255 games (67.0%) -- though that's well behind last season's 71.8% mark. With Week 18 approaching, the real question is will favorites reassert themselves, or are underdogs poised to close out the season on a high note? Check out Jeff's top money-line parlays featuring both favorites and underdogs.

Week 18 NFL money line favorites parlay

Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants

We've reached the final week of the regular season -- a notoriously difficult time to find betting value, as oddsmakers have accounted for nearly every angle. However, this matchup stands out: the Dallas Cowboys are clearly the right side on the money line.

Dak Prescott has dominated the NFC East -- particularly the Giants, posting a remarkable 14-2 record against them. Even in a "down" 7-8-1 season, the Cowboys' league-leading passing attack is a perfect matchup against a depleted Giants defense missing its top pass rusher, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who is now on injured reserve.

The Giants' run defense is among the league's worst, surrendering 145 yards per game (31st). Even with Javonte Williams banged up, Dallas can turn to Malik Davis or leverage their efficient short passing attack as an extension of the run game. With a 3-13 record, New York is already looking ahead to the draft. While Dallas may be disappointed with its season, it still boasts a much higher offensive floor (28.4 PPG). In a game where neither defense can consistently get stops, I'll back the quarterback who can put up 30+ points over one whose offense averages 21.7.

Dallas holds advantages in nearly every major metric: point differential, net yards per play, third-down and red-zone efficiency, run defense, total DVOA, special teams and sack differential. The Cowboys will be motivated to reach the eight-win mark and avoid a losing season. Unlike the Giants -- who appear to be angling for a top-five draft pick --Dallas is not a team looking to "tank." My model makes the Cowboys a six-point favorite or -290 on the money line.

Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns

In Week 18, when two non-playoff teams face off, motivation becomes the key variable. Bengals coach Zac Taylor has made it clear he's "rolling out the starters" to close the season with a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the 4-12 Browns are limping to the finish, hampered by injuries to key offensive starters and focused more on draft position. Cleveland is coming off its "Super Bowl" -- a win over the Steelers as four-point home underdogs -- but hasn't won consecutive games all year. Their dismal 1-6 road record offers little optimism.

The difference in yards per play is striking: Cincinnati averages nearly a full yard more per snap (5.3) than Cleveland (4.4). Over a typical 60-play game, that's an extra 50-60 "free" yards for the Bengals -- often equating to a four- to seven-point edge before the game even starts. Cleveland's secondary has regressed late in the season, surrendering an opponent passer rating near 97.0. With Joe Burrow confirmed active, he should efficiently attack a defense that gives up 27.1 points per game on the road (26th in the NFL). This shapes up as a comfortable Bengals win. My model favors Cincinnati by 9.5 points, or -520 on the money line.

Baltimore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers

Many bettors will back the Steelers on both the point spread and money line as past history suggests this matchup is typically decided by a field goal. However, as I mentioned in the SportsLine Discord, this is the ideal time to fade aging quarterbacks over 40 who lack mobility in the pocket.

Pittsburgh's offense looks fundamentally different without DK Metcalf (suspended), who accounted for 148 yards in their Week 14 win. In his absence, Aaron Rodgers' passer rating drops significantly, and the Steelers failed to score a touchdown last week against Cleveland. Baltimore enters with the league's top rushing attack (157.8 YPG), just ahead of Buffalo. Pittsburgh's run defense is only average, and if Baltimore controls possession, the Steelers' defense could wear down. I'm comfortable backing the Ravens, whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center.

Baltimore ranks in the top 10 in third-down defense while Pittsburgh ranks 25th at getting off the field. In a high-stakes rivalry, the team that extends drives often wins. The likely absence of T.J. Watt (lung) removes Pittsburgh's lone consistent disruptor of the Ravens' offense. Without his elite edge pressure, Baltimore's 10th-ranked offense in yards per play (5.7) should find its rhythm. The Steelers are just 3-10 without Watt, including the playoffs. The Ravens have the edge, bolstered by a superior coaching staff.

NFL three-team underdog money-line parlay benefits

A very popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

Week 18 NFL money-line underdog parlay

New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons

This seems like a nice spot to fade the Falcons coming off their big emotional win on Monday Night Football. That was an all-in spot against a Rams team that was missing several key players on offense, including two offensive linemen.

It's tough to draw sweeping conclusions from the Saints' season-long stats, even though they're solid across many categories. Tyler Shough's consistent ability to move the chains has helped keep the defense fresh -- an improvement from earlier in the year. The team also appears highly motivated with an eye on the Offensive Rookie of the Year award for their quarterback.

Over the past three weeks, New Orleans has averaged 27.1 points per game -- well above their season average of 18.1. Shough's red-zone efficiency has been a difference-maker, frequently turning trips inside the 20 into touchdowns. Atlanta's third-down conversion rate is just 33.6% (29th), making it tough to sustain drives. That said, it hasn't entirely stifled their scoring. Meanwhile, New Orleans' defense excels on third down, ranking third in the league with a 34.6% conversion rate -- a key factor in close games. I really like the Saints in this spot.

Washington Commanders over Philadelphia Eagles

This is a challenging game to handicap, largely due to uncertainty around the Eagles' lineup. The most likely scenario is that Philadelphia rests its starters. If both Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown sit (still unclear at the time of writing), the spread would tighten to -4 or -5. However, most computer models still project the Eagles to start their key players given the No. 2 seed implications. The betting market has already priced in a modest rest premium.

I don't have much confidence in this Washington team, but divisional games often produce surprises, and there's genuine upset potential here. The Commanders should be highly motivated -- this game is essentially their Super Bowl, offering a chance to spoil the Eagles' seeding and keep Philly under their win total. History supports the underdog angle: Washington upset the Eagles 32-21 as 11-point road dogs in 2022. At +250, it's worth a shot.

Las Vegas Raiders over Kansas City Chiefs 

How motivated are the Kansas City Chiefs to win this game? For the first time since 2014, they'll miss the playoffs. Both teams may have more incentive to lose and improve their draft position, but getting +200 odds on a team likely headed for major coaching changes after the season could present value.

The main reason for this pick is simple: the Chiefs' offense has fallen apart after losing Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew to season-ending ACL injuries. With third-stringer Chris Oladokun now starting and nothing left to play for, Kansas City just doesn't have the firepower or motivation. Meanwhile, the Raiders have plenty of guys on the field fighting to prove they should be on the roster next year.

The draft stakes in this game are actually pretty interesting for both teams. If the Raiders lose, they lock up the No. 1 overall pick, which is huge. But if they win and the Giants lose, they could drop to No. 2. On the other side, the Chiefs can bump up their own draft spot (they're sitting at No. 9 right now) if they lose. So, honestly, you could argue both teams have more reason to let this one slip away. And let's be real: it would be classic Raiders to play just well enough to mess up their shot at the top pick.