NFL Week 4 picks, odds: Kyle Allen hype train continues through Houston, Ravens send Browns further in decline

Here's who I like heading into Week 4

By Tyler Sullivan

Sep 25, 2019 at 8:11 am ET • 4 min read

Can you believe we're already at the first quarter point of the season?

With Week 4, we've already seen plenty of drama throughout the league and some really competitive games. While injuries have played a significant storyline this year, we've also seen some backups come in and really make a name for themselves in the early going like Jaguars budding star Gardner Minshew and Carolina's Kyle Allen. While Eli Manning didn't suffer an injury, his benching also began the Danny Dimes era in New York with a thrilling in In Week 3 over Tampa Bay.

With all this change under center, it's made picking all of these games that much more challenging, intriguing and downright fun, if we're being honest. And this week is no exception.

Before we get to the picks, let's take a look at how we're doing entering Week 4

Picks record

Straight up: 33-14-1
Against the spread: 24-23-1

Overall, it's a so-so ATS record with some early gambles not paying off earlier in the year. If you're rolling with our Money Line plays, things very much in the green. Riding with the Lions, Colts and Giants last week was a big plus in that regard.

With that quick recap out of the way, let's take a look at what we're working with this week.

Panthers (1-2) at Texans (2-1)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Texans, -5

It'll be Kyle Allen under center for the Panthers once again as Cam Newton continues to rehab his foot injury. Allen was superb against the Cardinals in Week 3 as he threw for four touchdowns on the day. Now, lighting up the Arizona secondary isn't exactly the same as slaying the Chicago Bears unit, but Allen looks like he can play. As long as Christian McCaffrey can continue his dominance, I think Carolina can put up points. The Panthers have also impressed me defensively. Houston has struggled mightily to protect Deshaun Watson this year and Carolina has the fourth most sacks in the league currently.

Give me the upset here.

The pick: Panthers 24-13 over Texans

Browns (1-2) at Ravens (2-1)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Ravens, -7

If the Browns had a capable offensive line in front of Baker Mayfield, I think this season would be going in a complete different direction. Against the Rams in Week 3, Mayfield had no time to throw after his initial drop back and most of his throws were targeted to his first read on the play. I think the Ravens at home will be able to disrupt him once again. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, proved last week against the Chiefs that he can still keep a team in position to win even if he isn't throwing as efficient as he was in the first couple of games. As for the coaching matchup, John Harbaugh should have his way with Freddie Kitchens and his fourth-and-9 draw plays.

I see the Ravens using this game to put themselves firmly in the driver's seat in the AFC North, while the Browns still try to figure their identity.

The pick: Ravens 33-13 over Browns

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Patriots (3-0) at Buffalo (3-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Patriots, -7

The Patriots weren't able to cover the spread against the Jets in Week 3, but that was to the fault of a muffed punt and a pick-6 by the backup quarterback resulting in 14 points. New England's defense still hasn't given up a touchdown all year and has motivation to separate themselves in the AFC East with the Buffalo Bills. Last season the Patriots were able to go into Buffalo on "Monday Night Football'' and hand the Josh Allen-less Bills a 25-6 loss. Even with Allen under center, I don't think he's able to go toe-to-toe with Tom Brady, especially when he has to face this dominant defense.

The pick: Patriots 27-7 over Bills

Titans (1-2) at Falcons (1-2)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Falcons, -4

The Titans proved something to me in Week 3: They stink. Marcus Mariota barely completed half of his throws and clearly doesn't appear to be the answer in Nashville. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel's defense allowed 20 points at home to Jaguars rookie sensation Gardner Minshew. As for the Falcons, they're looking to get to .500 in what has become a wide open NFC South. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have become red hot together over the last two games, resulting in 13 receptions for 234 yards and three touchdowns.

At home and in somewhat desperation mode to keep pace in the division, Atlanta should win this game by more than a touchdown.

The pick: Falcons 28-13 over Titans

Chargers (1-2) at Miami (0-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Chargers, -16.5

Philip Rivers down a touchdown, with the ball in his hands and minute left in a late Sunday afternoon game is always a classic. This time around in Week 3, he wasn't able to get it done against the Texans, but he'll have a great shot to get back into the win column against the Dolphins. Unlike Miami's last two games, the spread is under 20 points as they go home to face Los Angeles. Despite that big number, I still like Rivers and company to cover here as they try to get back their mojo after two tough losses in a row.

The pick: Chargers 37-14 over Dolphins