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Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season kicks off with one of the league's fiercest rivalries when the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday at Soldier Field. Both teams come off down seasons, with the Packers going 8-9 in 2022 and the Bears finishing 3-14. The Packers will be led by quarterback Jordan Love, who follows on the heels of four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre, a three-time winner of that honor. Meanwhile, Chicago is counting on continued improvement from quarterback Justin Fields, who was a dangerous rushing threat in 2022 and has a new weapon to help him in the passing game. Green Bay has won eight straight games in the series, most recently a 28-19 victory in Chicago last December. 

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET at Soldier Field. Chicago is a 1.5-point favorite in its latest Bears vs. Packers odds, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 41. Before locking in any Bears vs. Packers picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Packers vs. Bears 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Packers:

  • Packers vs. Bears spread: Chicago -1.5
  • Packers vs. Bears Over/Under: 41 points
  • Packers vs. Bears money line: Chicago -119, Green Bay +100
  • Packers: Packers are 8-2 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons.
  • Bears: Bears are 9-6-0 as a favorite at Soldier Field since 2020.
  • Packers vs. Bears picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Bears can cover

Chicago is expecting the combination of Fields and receiver DJ Moore to make the pass offense more of a threat. The run game already is formidable, as it was the league's best in 2022, averaging 177 yards per game. Fields led the NFL in averaging 7.1 yards per carry and was seventh in the league with 1,143 rushing yards. The quarterback threw for 2,242 yards in his second season and accounted for 25 touchdowns. The Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft for Moore and a haul of picks, and they expect him to have an immediate impact.

Moore had 5,201 receiving yards in five seasons with the Panthers. Former Carolina teammate D'Onta Foreman is joining Khalil Herbert and Fields in the Bears backfield. Foreman rushed for 914 yards last season, and Herbert had 731 (5.7 per carry) as Chicago's No. 2 option. See who to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Packers can cover

New Packers quarterback Jordan Love hasn't had much playing time, but he had two seasons to learn from a future Hall of Famer. He completed 64% of his passes and threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions in limited preseason action. The Packers could rely heavily on their star running-back duo in the early going. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 1,891 rushing yards in 2022 and scored 14 touchdowns between them. Dillon scored at least once in five of the final six games in 2022. Now, they face a Bears defense that was among the NFL's worst.

Chicago allowed 27.2 points per game, most in the league, and ranked 29th in total defense, yielding 376 yards per contest. The Packers scored 22 points (14th in NFL) and gave up 22 per game (16th). Receivers Christian Watson (out) and Romeo Doubs (questionable) are both dealing with hamstring injuries, but Jones and Dillon can catch passes as well. They teamed up for 87 receptions for 601 yards last season and had a combined 169 total yards in the Week 13 victory in Chicago. The Bears' offense averaged just 19 points per game in 2022, ranking 23rd in the league. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Packers vs. Bears picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under the total, projecting the run games will struggle a bit. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

So who wins Bears vs. Packers in NFL Week 1, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bears spread to back, all from the model that has returned more than $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.