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Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (1-3) hit the road to take on the New England Patriots (1-3) in a cross-conference Week 5 NFL matchup. The Patriots are coming off a 27-24 overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers last weekend, while the Lions are looking to rebound from a 48-45 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in a Week 4 offensive shootout. Quarterback Mac Jones (ankle) is listed as doubtful for New England, which opens the door for rookie Bailey Zappe to make his first career NFL start against Detroit. The Patriots have won four of the past five meetings with the Lions.

New England is a 3-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Lions odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 46.5. Before making any Lions vs. Patriots picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 140-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Lions and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 5 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Lions:

  • Patriots vs. Lions spread: Patriots -3
  • Patriots vs. Lions over/under: 46.5 points
  • Patriots vs. Lions picks: See picks here

What you need to know about the Patriots

The Patriots will likely be led by their third-string quarterback, rookie fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe, after Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer both suffered injuries in past weeks. Zappe was sharp in relief of Hoyer in Week 4, completing 10 of 15 passes for 99 yards and one touchdown. Fortunately for Zappe, he will be facing a Detroit defense that has struggled in 2022.

Detroit ranks dead last in the league in total yards and points allowed per game. If New England can limit or slow down Detroit's offensive attack, there should be plenty of opportunity for them to rack up enough yards and points to cover the spread at home. 

What you need to know about the Lions

Detroit, meanwhile, fell 48-45 to the Seattle Seahawks last week. A silver lining for Detroit was the play of TE T.J. Hockenson, who caught eight passes for two TDs and 179 yards. That receiving effort made it the first game that Hockenson has posted more than 100 yards receiving.

Swift will likely be out again for this game, but his replacement, Jamaal Williams has filled in admirably and leads the NFL is rushing touchdowns (6). The key in this game for Detroit will be the performance of its defense. If the Lions improve on the defensive side of the ball, they clearly have the firepower on offense to go into New England and give the Patriots all they can handle. 

How to make Patriots vs. Lions picks

The model has simulated Patriots vs. Lions 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lions vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread holds all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 140-105 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.