Ranking each NFC playoff contender's remaining strength of schedule: Giants to determine Eagles' playoff fate
New York is hoping to be more than a spoiler over the next month
By
Bryan DeArdo
•
7 min read
In the blink of an eye, the NFC's balance of power switched coasts on Sunday. The Eagles started the day as the NFC's top seed, but fell to fifth after losing to arch rival Dallas, who shot up to the No. 2 seed in the conference. The 49ers then replaced the Eagles as the NFC's top-seeded team after coasting past the Seahawks.
Sunday's shuffle in the standings tells you everything you need to know about what has been a roller coaster of a season, especially in the NFC. While the top teams have separated themselves from the pack, the 49ers, Cowboys, Lions and Eagles continue to rotate positions in the pecking order. One of these teams will have to start the playoffs on the road. That team would currently be the Eagles, who would have to face the 6-7 Buccaneers in Tampa if the playoffs started today.
With four weeks remaining in the regular season, there are 11 AFC teams that are legitimately in the hunt for a playoff spot. There's even more on the NFC side after the Giants and Bears' recent success has slingshot both clubs back into mix.
This brings us to each contender's remaining strength of schedule, in order to toughest to easiest. Before we dive into that, here's an updated look at the current NFC playoff standings.
1. 49ers (10-3)
2. Cowboys (10-3)
3. Lions (9-4)
4. Buccaneers (6-7)
5. Eagles (10-3)
6. Vikings (7-6)
7. Packers (6-7)
8. Rams (6-7)
9. Seahawks (6-7)
10. Falcons (6-7)
11. Saints (6-7)
12. Giants (5-8)
13. Bears (5-8)
Each NFC contender's remaining strength of schedule
| Team | Remaining S.O.S. (Opponents' win %) | |
|---|---|---|
1. | Giants | .615 (at Saints, at Eagles, vs. Rams. vs. Eagles) |
T2. | Vikings | .596 (at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions) |
T2. | Lions | .596 (Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings) |
4. | Cowboys | .558 (at Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders) |
T5. | Seahawks | |
T5 | Rams | .481 (vs. Commanders, vs. Saints, at Giants, at 49ers) |
T7. | Bears | .442 (at Browns, vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, at Packers) |
T7. | Saints | .442 (vs. Giants, at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons) |
T7. | 49ers | .442 (at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams) |
10. | Buccaneers | |
11. | Falcons | .365 (at Panthers, vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints) |
T12. | Packers | .365 (Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears) |
T12. | Eagles | .365 (at Seattle, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, vs. Giants) |
Giant challenge for Eagles
When looking at each team's remaining strength of schedule, one of the biggest things that stands out are the Eagles' two upcoming games against the Giants. What would have been considered two easy wins a month ago aren't looking so easy now, with New York riding a three-game winning streak and Philadelphia dropping its last two games.
One of the season's biggest myths is that the Eagles' offense is holding the defending NFC champs back. While they're not as explosive as they were a year ago, the Eagles are sixth in the league in scoring. It's been the defense that has largely contributed to Philadelphia's recent struggles. The Eagles' defense is dead last in the NFL in third down efficiency and 30th in red zone efficiency. Conversely, Philadelphia's offense is third and 10th in those categories, respectively.
Speaking of numbers, there are some pretty ghastly ones associated with Brian Daboll's team. But one area where Big Blue has shined this season is third down defense. The Giants are fourth in the NFL in that department, and their ability to get opposing offenses off the field has been a big key to New York's winning streak. Quarterback Tommy DeVito's unexpected solid play at quarterback hasn't hurt, either.
These games against the Giants may very well determine whether or not the Eagles will get back in the running for the NFC's top seed as well as the NFC East title. These games are also paramount for the Giants if they are going to pull off the unthinkable.
Can the Giants keep this run going? That'll depend a lot on the play of DeVito, who so far has done a good job of finding the balance between trying to make plays without being too cavalier with his throws and decision making. New York's defense will probably have to continue to force turnovers the way they have over the past few weeks.
We'd be remiss not to mention Saquon Barkley, who has quietly done his part in helping the Giants salvage what looked like a lost season. Barkley hasn't gone wild, but he's a consistent performer each week since coming back from his ankle injury. Barkley's presence and production has undoubtedly had an impact on the entire team. That'll need to continue if the Giants are going to be more than a spoiler over the next month.
Cowboys vs. 49ers
Though they've already played this season, the Cowboys and 49ers aren't done competing against each other. Not only is there is a possible playoff showdown on the horizon, the two teams are also competing for the NFC's coveted playoff bye. Yes, you're not the only one reading that sentence and harkening back to the early 1990s, when Dallas and San Francisco battled for conference supremacy on an annual basis.
The next two weeks are going to be critical for the Cowboys if they are going to have a shot at winning the top seed and/or the East. If they can split their upcoming games against the Bills and Dolphins, that should give them a good shot at accomplishing both, assuming they take care of business at home against Detroit and Washington in the season's final two weeks. Wins against both AFC East squads would really bolster the Cowboys' hopes of securing the NFC's top seed for the first time since 2016.
San Francisco's road is significantly easier. They face two of the NFC's worst teams in Arizona and Washington. The Rams could push them in Week 18, especially if Los Angeles has something to play for. By far, the 49ers' biggest challenge is their Week 16 showdown with Baltimore, who currently has the top seed in the AFC. Fortunately for the 49ers, that game will be on their home turf, where Kyle Shanahan's team is 15-2 over the past two seasons (including the playoffs).
Wild card race
The NFC's most compelling race might be for the conference's three wild card spots. Well, it's really race for two spots with the Eagles currently holding onto the NFC's first wild card spot.
The Vikings currently have a game on the rest of the field, but inconsistent quarterback play has put them in a three-game tailspin. I don't see things getting better, especially with upcoming games against the resurgent Bengals and three combined games against the Packers and Lions.
Speaking of Green Bay, I have them hanging onto one of the NFC's wild card spots. The Vikings are the only team the Packers play going forward that has a winning record. The Rams, who like the Packers are fighting for a wild card spot, have just one game left against a team with a winning record: the 49ers in Week 18. The Rams are not the same team that won the Super Bowl two years ago, but a healthy Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (and of course Aaron Donald on defense) should be enough to make the Rams a playoff team again.
The Seahawks are the only other team that I think legitimately has a shot at beating out either Green Bay or Los Angeles for a wild card spot. In order for that to happen, Pete Carroll's team will probably have to win their final three games assuming they come up short this weekend in Philadelphia.
Who wins the South?
You can't talk about the NFC playoff race without talking about the three-team race between the Buccaneers, Falcons and Saints.
When looking at their remaining schedules, the Buccaneers and Falcons have an advantage in that they both have a remaining game against the one-win Panthers, whereas the Saints' remaining two division games are against Tampa and Atlanta.
While the Falcons have the easier schedule, something tells me that the Buccaneers are going to find a way to win their fourth straight division crown. To do that, though, they'll likely need to win one of their upcoming games (at Green Bay and at home against the Jaguars). Mike Evans' continued excellence, Baker Mayfield's savvy and Tampa's solid defense are among the reasons why I'm picking them to represent the South in the postseason.
Here's our best guess at how this all shakes out.
1. 49ers
2. Cowboys
3. Lions
4. Buccaneers
5. Eagles
6. Packers
7. Rams
8. Seahawks
9. Falcons
10. Saints
11. Vikings
12. Giants
13. Bears
