Super Bowl 2026 odds entering Week 17: Are the Bears worth backing? Is it time to fade the Bills?
The Bears are trending up in Super Bowl futures, while one major flaw could derail the Bills
As we exit NFL Week 16, there are just two playoff spots in each conference left to be clinched. While final seeding is to be determined, the AFC North and NFC South are still up for grabs, and then we have a fascinating battle in the NFC West, as the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are fighting for the No. 1 seed.
Over the weekend, the Chicago Bears registered the greatest comeback in franchise history to defeat the Green Bay Packers in a pivotal NFC North clash, the Rams fell to the Seahawks in the game of the year -- which dropped them from the No. 1 seed in the NFC to the No. 5 seed -- and the Carolina Panthers took the NFC South lead from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with an upset victory. It's shaping up to be a wild finish.
There's still a lot of football left to be played, but which teams are the favorites to win it all in what has been a wonky season?
Here are the latest Super Bowl LX odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Super Bowl LX odds
| Team | Odds | Odds last week |
|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Rams | +425 | +310 |
Seattle Seahawks | +550 | +650 |
+900 | +800 | |
+900 | +1500 | |
+900 | +800 | |
+1000 | +1100 | |
+1200 | +1700 | |
San Francisco 49ers | +1300 | +2200 |
+1500 | +1100 | |
Green Bay Packers | +1600 | +1500 |
+1900 | +2200 | |
Chicago Bears | +2000 | +3000 |
+3500 | +7000 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +7000 | +5000 |
+10000 | +2200 | |
+12000 | +3000 | |
Carolina Panthers | +15000 | +30000 |
+100000 | +40000 |
No love for the Bears
The Bears are now 11-4 and own the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They have a great chance to win the NFC North for the first time since 2018, but Vegas still likes the Packers more -- despite the Micah Parsons injury!
Sure, Chicago doesn't appear to be some kind of juggernaut, but a few things stand out.
- The Bears are the comeback kings, as they have now won six games when trailing in the final two minutes of regulation. That's the most in a season in NFL HISTORY.
- Chicago has also recorded 31 takeaways this season -- five more than any other team in the NFL.
- The offense takes care of the ball as well. Chicago's +21 turnover differential this season is seven more than any other team.
- Caleb Williams could have turned a corner as well with his incredible performance in the fourth quarter and overtime on Saturday night.
I'm not saying the Bears should be a favorite to win Super Bowl LX, but I like them more than the Packers. In fact, I would probably take them above a couple of other teams with shorter odds.
What to make of the Bills
At face value, it looks like this could be the year the Bills win the Super Bowl. Josh Allen doesn't have to face Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow -- and probably not Lamar Jackson either. However, Buffalo has a very clear Achilles heel that has me second-guessing this team.
The Bills outlasted the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, 23-20, but the Browns racked up 160 rushing yards while averaging 5.2 yards per rush. Shedeur Sanders presented a problem escaping the pocket, rushing for a career-high 49 yards on four carries. When Quinshon Judkins exited the game with his unfortunate injury, Raheim Sanders and Trayveon Williams came in and accounted for 101 total yards from scrimmage.
The Bills have the third-worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 144.3 rushing yards per game. Only the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals are worse. Buffalo allows 5.4 yards per rush -- which ranks second-worst in the NFL. There are still games to be played, but according to CBS Sports Research, those 5.4 yards per rush allowed ranks second-worst among playoff teams since 1970! The 2022 Chargers are the only playoff team that allowed more yards per rush, and that was the team that blew a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in the wild card round.
The Bills have already allowed the most 30-yard rushing touchdowns in a season in NFL HISTORY with eight. Is this going to be the one thing that holds Buffalo back from reaching its ceiling?
Jaguars on the prowl
How about these Jaguars? Trevor Lawrence had actually been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league over the last month or so, but the rest of the NFL world didn't really care since he was beating up on teams like the Colts and lowly New York Jets. On Sunday, he had the opportunity to take down a team on an 11-game win streak with one of the best defenses in the NFL, and he did just that.
Lawrence completed 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions, and added a touchdown on the ground as well. According to CBS Sports Research, he is the fourth player all-time to score 10 touchdowns and commit zero turnovers in a two-game span, joining Josh Allen in 2024, Drew Brees in 2019 and Patrick Mahomes in 2018. During this six-game win streak, Lawrence leads the NFL in yards per attempt (8.4), total touchdowns (19) and passer rating (108.7).
You also have to credit this Jaguars defense, which has been one of the best units all year when it comes to creating turnovers. Jacksonville won the turnover battle on Sunday, 2-0. It now ranks second in the NFL in takeaways with 28 and is tied for third in turnover differential (+12). Is this the real Super Bowl sleeper in the AFC?
