Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys: Preview, prediction, time, how to watch, stats to know for NFC East showdown
Everything you need to know about the Cowboys visiting the nation's capital
Two of the NFL's oldest rivals are going head to head on Sunday, and the game actually seems like it could mean a whole lot this time around. The NFC East does not necessarily look like one of football's best divisions, but it is arguably its most competitive right now, with the defending champion Eagles battling it out near the top with Washington and Dallas.
Both of those teams are coming off bounce-back wins that were sorely needed after terrible losses suffered in Week 5. Washington had been thoroughly destroyed by New Orleans on Monday Night Football while the Cowboys limped through a Sunday night stinker against the Texans. It's safe to say both teams feel better about themselves after their respective wins over Carolina and Jacksonville.
Washington is 3-2 and holding onto first place in the division, while Dallas has evened its record at 3-3 and sits in second by virtue of a tiebreaker. Whoever comes away with a win here (4:25 p.m., CBS) will take early control of the division until they start playing Philly in a few weeks.
Which one of them will get it done? And if they do, how will it happen? Read on to find out.
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When Washington has the ball
Washington rebounded from Week 5's embarrassing loss to the Saints with a strong performance in a win over the Panthers last weekend. Adrian Peterson played through a dislocated shoulder and ran for 97 yards on 17 carries, helping Washington to a win in a game where it was missing several important contributors like Chris Thompson. The Dallas defense poses a different challenge than Carolina's, but one that could still prove tough for Washington to crack.
A weakness for years, the Cowboys' defensive line is now one of the better units in the NFL, and it recently got a boost with the return of its second most talented player (David Irving). DeMarcus Lawrence is one of the handful of best pass rushers in the league, as his 5.5 sacks currently rank eighth in the NFL and his 25 total pressures rank third. Lawrence rushes almost exclusively off the left side of the line, which means Morgan Moses will have his hands full on Sunday. And it's not even just against the pass where Lawrence excels, as he has turned into a dominating run defender as well. The Cowboys will send waves of players like Irving, Tyrone Crawford, Taco Charlton, Randy Gregory, Maliek Collins, rookie Dorance Armstrong, and surprising contributors like Antuan Woods and Daniel Ross rotating through the game, and they all have been routinely making plays in the backfield against both the run and pass. Irving single-handedly ruined several Jaguars plays last week in his return to the field after a four-game suspension followed by a personal absence.
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Dallas also sports arguably the NFL's single-best cornerback this season in Byron Jones. The Cowboys had previously moved Jones to safety, but after hiring former Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard, shifted him back outside. It's worked like gangbusters as he has shut down pretty much everyone in sight. Washington does not have a premier receiver the Cowboys can sic him on, and that actually might play to their advantage on Sunday. Alex Smith's favorite targets are tight end Jordan Reed and running back Chris Thompson, and again, that could play to Washington's advantage against the Cowboys. The Dallas pass defense has allowed more than 100 receiving yards per game to tight ends and running backs, per Football Outsiders, and backs in particular have been able to shake free for short catches before the Dallas linebackers (also playing really well, by the way) rally to the ball for a tackle.
Smith's best bet is to quickly after the snap find safeties Jeff Heath and Kavon Frazier, linebacker Damien Wilson, or interior corners Anthony Brown or Jourdan Lewis, and throw the ball in their direction. Targeting Jones, Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, or the potentially-returning-from-injury Sean Lee is not likely to yield quite as friendly results.
Smith's ability to avoid turnovers plays well against the Cowboys, who have generated only six on the season. It's difficult to move the ball up and down the field with short gain after short gain and still come away with points, but that's both what the Dallas defense forces opposing offenses to do and what Smith is most comfortable doing, most often. If Thompson plays (he's been limited in practice), he is a particularly strong asset in that strategy, and Reed should be able to similarly impact the game if and when he gets matched up on a non-Smith or Vander Esch defender.
When the Cowboys have the ball
After fielding one of the worst offenses in the NFL through the first five weeks of the season, the Cowboys absolutely exploded in Week 6 against the Jaguars, hanging 40 points on one of the best defenses in the league. Dallas had scored 20 points or fewer in four of its first five games, with the lone exception being a 26-24 win over the Lions. That game was also the only one in which Dallas had exceeded 17 first downs prior to last week's demolition of Jacksonville, during which the Cowboys managed to achieve 23 first downs.
Much of their success against Jacksonville, though, seemed the product of game-plan specific tactics. With elite cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye on the outside, the Jaguars' defense is incredibly tough to beat on the perimeter. Last year, it was incredibly tough to beat in the slot as well, as Aaron Colvin was one of the NFL's premier slot corners. According to Sports Info Solutions, Colvin allowed a passer rating of only 70.5 on throws to players lined up in the slot during the 2017 season. Jacksonville's current slot corner, former Cowboys special-teamer Tyler Patmon, has allowed a passer rating of 115.2 on similar throws. Cole Beasley torched Patmon on his way to a nine-catch, 101-yard, two-touchdown afternoon. Washington's pass defense has been much better against the types of short passes that Beasley runs, and it's doubtful he sees as much success during this game as he did a week ago.
That means the Cowboys will have to hope to get some passing-game plays from one or more of Allen Hurns, Deonte Thompson, or rookie Michael Gallup -- none of whom has exactly lit the world on fire this season. That trio has combined for just 27 catches (on 56 targets) for 296 yards and one score in six games. Dak Prescott has been wildly inefficient when throwing to Hurns and Gallup in particular, as both players have struggled to create any kind of separation. It's no wonder that Prescott has been forced to throw into tight windows more often than almost any quarterback in the league (24 percent of his passes, second-highest behind only Jimmy Garoppolo), per NFL.com's NextGen Stats. Because Prescott is so often forced to throw into tight coverage, he has one of the lowest expected completion percentages in the NFL. Per NextGen, only passes thrown by Josh Rosen, Jameis Winston, and Tyrod Taylor had less of an expectation of landing in the arms of their own pass-catcher than one thrown by Prescott.
In the absence of an obvious passing-game weakness for the opponent, Dallas will likely lean on its run game, which has actually fared quite well this season. Ezekiel Elliott has 586 yards on the ground -- 37 behind Todd Gurley for the NFL lead. Zeke's yards per carry average has rebounded from 4.1 last season to 5.0 this year, just 0.1 shy of where he was during his spectacular rookie campaign. And he's done this without star center Travis Frederick, with left guard Connor Williams struggling, and with All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith having a down year. Washington's run defense ranks 30th in the NFL in DVOA so far this season, but has not n necessarily been gashed by any one back just yet. That could change if Elliott gets going on Sunday.
Aiding him in that effort will be Prescott, who has been running far more often and more efficiently himself over the past few weeks. Dak had just 17 carries for 87 yards through the first four games of Dallas' season, but he nearly reached both of those totals last week against Jacksonville alone. In his past two weeks, Dak has carried 17 times for 116 yards and a score. Washington has done a nice job limiting quarterbacks on the ground this season, though, yielding only 3.15 yards per carry to QBs -- fifth-best in the NFL, according to Sports Info Solutions. Nearly half of those carries have resulted in first downs, though, indicating that Prescott's legs could potentially be useful in short yardage.
Prediction: Washington 17, Cowboys 14
















