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The Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) play in an AFC West contest at 1 p.m. ET. The Chiefs beat the Detroit Lions 30-17 in their last outing. According to the latest Week 7 NFL odds, the Chiefs are 11.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 45.5 points. Our model is backing the Over on 39.5 total receiving yards in this contest for Travis Kelce. The model is taking the Over on Jake Ferguson's receiving yards (39.5) in the Cowboys vs. Commanders Week 7 game. In addition, SportsLine's model is backing Sam LaPorta to go over 46.5 receiving yards in the Buccaneers vs. Lions Week 7 contest. Those NFL picks are part of a tight end parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook that pays over 5-1.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 42-25 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three betting picks for NFL Week 7 (odds subject to change): 

  • Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 39.5 receiving yards
  • Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: Over 39.5 receiving yards
  • Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions: Over 46.5 receiving yards

Combining the model's three picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +581 (risk $100 to win $581).

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 39.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)

Kelce is leading the team in receiving yards (321) and was a consistent force while the Chiefs dealt with blows in the WR room. Kansas City has Rashee Rice back in the fold, with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown healthy. This will create more one-on-one opportunities for Kelce. The over has hit in five of the last six games when the line is set at 39.5 for the 36-year-old. SportsLine's Machine Learning Model projects that he will finish with 53.9 receiving yards versus Las Vegas. 

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: Over 39.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson has been a safety blanket for Dak Prescott. This season, he's tied for fourth in the NFL in receptions (44) with 305 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The over has hit in four of the six games when the line is listed at 39.5. SportsLine's model projects that Ferguson will log 48 receiving yards in this divisional tilt.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions: Over 46.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta heads into this game with 26 receptions for 324 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He's been getting involved more lately in the passing attack, logging 55-plus receiving yards in back-to-back games. The over has hit in six of the last 10 games for LaPorta when the receiving line is at 46.5. SportsLine's Machine Learning Model predicts that LaPorta will finish with 50.1 receiving yards.