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Rivals Spain and Portugal square off immediately as the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League kicks off this week. The Iberian derby will start League A play Thursday with a rivalry that dates to 1921, and the teams have faced off 39 times, though 30 of those were friendly matches. Spain holds a 17-16-6 lead all-time, and the last competitive meeting was a 3-3 draw in the 2018 World Cup group stage. Spain and Portugal are in Group 2A of the UEFA Nations League with Czech Republic and Switzerland, and each team will play four games in June and two more in September. The finals between the four group winners are scheduled for June 14-18, 2023.

Kickoff is set for 2:45 p.m. ET at Estadio Benito Villamarin in Seville, Spain. Spain is the +119 favorite (risk $100 to win $119) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Spain vs. Portugal odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Portugal is the +240 underdog, a draw is priced at +225 and the Over/Under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before you lock in your Portugal vs. Spain picks or make any UEFA Nations League predictions, you need to see what proven soccer insider Martin Green has to say. 

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated more than $37,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.

Now, Green has broken down the Spain vs. Portugal matchup from every angle and just locked in his picks and UEFA Nations League predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Portugal vs. Spain:

  • Spain vs. Portugal spread: Spain -0.5 
  • Spain vs. Portugal over-under: 2.5 goals 
  • Spain vs. Portugal money line: Spain +119, Portugal +240, Draw +225 
  • SPA: Spain has five clean sheets in its past six in all competitions (6-0-0) 
  • POR: Portugal has scored 14 goals in its last six matches overall (4-1-1)

Why you should back Spain

La Roja is a mix of battle-tested veterans and talented youngsters, and it reached the final of the Nations League in 2020-21. It beat Italy in the semifinals before a 2-1 loss to France in the championship match. The Spaniards will try to control the match with their technical ability, prodding to get a goal from Alvaro Morata, Ferran Torres or emerging youngster Ansu Fati. Morata is the top scorer on the team with 25 career goals, while Torres has 13 in 24 matches. Manager Luis Enrique has an assortment of talent to choose from to control the midfield.

Captain Sergio Busquets, veterans Thiago and Koke and young star Gavi are likely the top choices. Enrique could choose to rest Thiago, who played in the Champions League final with Liverpool. He also has Carlos Soler, Marcos Llorente and Dani Olmo, and all are capable of making big plays. Unai Simon has seized the No. 1 goalkeeping job, as he has nine clean sheets in 21 starts for Spain, and he is protected by an experienced back line. Barcelona's Jordi Alba is one of the team leaders, and Eric Garcia and Pau Torres are likely to fill the middle.

Why you should back Portugal

The Portuguese have a lot more threatening options in their attack, and they could take advantage of that aging back line. Cristiano Ronaldo is aging, as well, but he hasn't slowed down much, and he had a hat trick in that 2018 World Cup draw with Spain. The 37-year-old scored 18 goals in his return to Manchester United this season, and Bruno Fernandes had 10 goals and six assists alongside him. Now they will team up in the Portugal attack along with Dioga Jota, who had 15 goals in a complementary role to Mohamed Salah with Liverpool.   

Jota and Ronaldo are both dangerous on the counter-attack, and Spain is typically vulnerable there. Fernandes and Bernardo Silva should feature in the midfield, and they have combined for three goals and six assists in the nine international games in 2022. 

How to make Spain vs. Portugal picks

Green has scrutinized the Portugal vs. Spain match from every angle, and he is leaning under on the goal total. He also provides two confident best bets and has a full breakdown of the match. He's only sharing his expert UEFA Nations League picks at SportsLine.

So, who wins Spain vs. Portugal? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Portugal vs. Spain, all from the European soccer expert who has generated more than $37,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.