World Cup 2022 Morocco vs. France start time, odds, lines: Model picks, FIFA predictions, best bets

SportsLine's soccer model simulated France vs. Morocco and locked in its 2022 FIFA World Cup picks and predictions for Wednesday's semifinal

By CBS Sports Staff

Dec 14, 2022 at 12:35 pm ET • 4 min read

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France remain on track to defend their title, but upstart Morocco have other plans as the teams get set to meet in a 2022 FIFA World Cup semifinal on Wednesday. Les Bleus eked out a 2-1 victory against France on Saturday to make the semifinal for the third time in their past six World Cup appearances. They won titles in 1998 and 2018 and were runners-up in 2006, losing to Italy on penalties. Morocco stifled Portugal in a 1-0 victory on Saturday, posting their fourth clean sheet in five matches in Qatar. They are the first African team to reach the World Cup semifinals, and their relentless defense will be a serious challenge for France.

Kickoff at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, Qatar is set for 2 p.m. ET. France are the -185 favorites (risk $185 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line in the latest France vs. Morocco odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with Morocco +550 underdogs. A draw is priced at +295 and the over/under for total goals is set at 2.5. Before locking in any Morocco vs. France picks, you need to see the World Cup predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven soccer model.

The SportsLine soccer simulation model evaluates a team's offensive and defensive capabilities based on the game situation. Then, it assigns a grade using an expected payout-to-probability ratio. The model was accurate on 56% of all picks during the Champions League group stage and returned more than $1,000 to $100 bettors on its A+ picks. It also enters the World Cup semifinals on a 33-15-4 run on spread picks, returning more than $1,400 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now the model has dialed in on France vs. Morocco and just revealed its 2022 World Cup picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model's soccer picks. Here are the World Cup 2022 odds and trends for Morocco vs. France:

France vs. Morocco spread: France -0.5 (-185)
France vs. Morocco over/under: 2.5 goals
France vs. Morocco money line: France -185, Morocco +550, Draw +295
FRA: The French are 3-0-3 all-time in World Cup semifinals, winning their past three
MAR: The Atlas Lions have a 30-4 goal advantage in qualifying and World Cup games
France vs. Morocco picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back France

Les Bleus made some defensive mistakes Saturday that nearly cost them, but Morocco don't have the loaded roster to take advantage. The Atlas Lions have just five goals and 13 shots on target in their five matches, while France have scored 11 and put 30 of their 78 shots on frame. Olivier Giroud, who became France's all-time leading scorer earlier in the tournament, scored the winner in the 78th minute against England. The 36-year-old has 53 goals in 118 international matches despite taking a backseat to Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappe in recent years.

Benzema has been out with an injury, but Mbappe is the leading scorer in the tournament with five goals. He was mostly shut down Saturday, but Giroud was in the right place at the right time yet again to score his fourth goal in the five games. Midfielder Antoine Griezmann also has been a critical piece as a box-to-box player, and he is third all-time in for France with 42 goals and has 26 assists.

Why you should back Morocco

The Atlas Lions have been amazingly successful by simply clogging the back in front of goalkeeper Yassine Bounou. They have yielded only an own goal over their past nine matches, and Bounou has seven clean sheets in his past eight starts. The 31-year-old has 29 clean sheets in 48 career starts for Morocco and has a 75.6 save percentage in six seasons in Spain's La Liga, the past four with Sevilla. Regular starter Nayef Aguerd didn't play Saturday and captain and defensive partner Roman Saiss went off on a stretcher in the second half.

That allowed Morocco to show that their success doesn't depend entirely on personnel. Jawad El Yamiq was among the stalwarts against Portugal. Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui play on the outside, and they contribute heavily in defending and on the fast-break counters. Hakimi is the World Cup leader with 17 tackles, and Mazraoui is tied for fourth with 13. The Atlas Lions have allowed nine shots on net in five matches while putting 13 on target. Youssef En-Nesyri, who scored the winner Saturday, and Hakim Ziyech can both finish off the limited chances.