belmont-stakes-1-imagn.jpg
Imagn Images

Entering Kentucky Derby week, Baeza was on the outside looking in and not even guaranteed to get into the field for the Run for the Roses. Not only did he get in, he ran third, losing by just 1 and 3/4 lengths. Now, Baeza can join Sovereignty and Journalism atop the 3-year-old class with a win in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

6 Baeza (4-1)

  • Trainer: John Shirreffs
  • Jockey: Flavien Prat
  • Last race: Third in the Kentucky Derby by 1 and 3/4 lengths
  • Career record: 5 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third
  • Career earnings: $648,500
  • Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 102 (2025 Kentucky Derby)
  • Sire: McKinzie

Below, we'll dig further into Baeza as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 157th Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 7. We'll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered on Saturday, and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.

Belmont Stakes profiles 1 Hill Road | 2 Sovereignty | 3 Rodriguez | 4 Uncaged | 5 Crudo | 6 Baeza | 7 Journalism | 8 Heart of Honor

Belmont Stakes picks Michelle Yu | Gene Menez | Jody Demling | Jeff Hochman

What to know about Baeza

Trainer John Shirreffs and the rest of the connections of Baeza were desperate to get the horse into the Kentucky Derby field, and his performance in that race showed why. He put in an effort that would've won many Kentucky Derbies but finished a fast-closing third behind the big two of Sovereignty and Journalism. With a cleaner trip or an extra half furlong, Baeza easily could've won the garland of roses.

This $1.2 million purchase has come a long way since making his debut in December in a one-mile race on the turf. As the races have gotten longer, he also has gotten faster. Each subsequent Beyer Speed Figure has been better than the previous one, culminating with a career-best 103 Beyer in the Derby. The figures from Thoro-Graph, which takes ground loss and other factors into consideration, say that Baeza ran even better than Journalism in the Derby and almost as fast as Sovereignty.

Can Baeza move forward once again and beat Journalism and Sovereignty at odds of 4-1 at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET? He's certainly training as if he will. On Monday Baeza turned in a four-furlong work in 48 and 4/5 seconds, which suggests he's sitting on a big race. And the bloodlines say he's more than capable. Last year his brother, Dornoch, won the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes at this track and distance. 

The pace scenario also sets up well for Baeza. With just two speed horses in the field, he is projected to get a cozy trip in third right behind Rodriguez and Crudo. That should allow Baeza to get the jump on Journalism and Sovereignty and make him a major presence down the stretch.

Post draw analysis

After being stuck on the far outside in the Kentucky Derby, Baeza went four-wide around the first turn and three-wide around the second, losing ground to both Sovereignty and Journalism. For Saturday, Baeza will leave from post No. 6, just inside Journalism. If top jockey Flavien Prat finds himself inside Journalism and jockey Umberto Rispoli either entering or leaving a turn, he could very well try to float those rivals wide.