usatsi-23312721-1-1.jpg
USATSI

The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx are battling for the first time this season, with the Lynx hosting the 2024 WNBA championship rematch at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Liberty are already without star Breanna Stewart (leg), and point guard Natasha Cloud was deemed as questionable earlier on Wednesday due to an illness. 

If you're interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Wednesday, July 30, then make sure to see today's WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's WNBA picks:

  • Liberty +7.5 -106 (1 unit, FD)
  • Jonquel Jones Over 14.5 points -122 (1 unit, FD)

Liberty +7.5, Jonquel Jones Over 14.5 points

This is just a gut play that the Liberty bounce back here, as I think the line is a bit high. New York has lost consecutive games, having just Breanna Stewart available for three minutes in those contests. After she exited with a leg injury on Saturday, the Liberty lost 91-89 at home to the Sparks and 92-82 on the road against the Wings. I just think a one-game swing of the Liberty closing as 8-point road favorites to the Wings to now being 7.5-point road underdogs to the Lynx is too big of an adjustment. The problem has been very slow starts, as New York has trailed by double digits at the end of the first quarter in each of the past two contests. Coming off a game in which the Liberty trailed by 30 points to the Wings, I think you'll see a fired-up New York squad. 

The key player that I think leads the Liberty to a close game tonight is Jonquel Jones, who was the 2024 WNBA Finals MVP against this same Lynx team. Jones averaged 17.8 points in the five WNBA Finals games last season, as the Lynx had trouble defending her size. This is the Liberty and Lynx's first meeting since the WNBA Finals, and the Liberty are going to have to lean on Jones more with Stewart out.

Jones took a season-high 16 shots last game against the Wings and also tied a season-high with six 3-point attempts. With Stewart and fellow big Nyara Sabally out, Jones is the only true big currently active for the Liberty. Therefore, I expect her usage to continue to be up and for her to play more minutes in a marquee matchup where the Liberty don't really have any other options to turn to for size.