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Inside the Lines team

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. For Sunday Night Football Ravens-Bills Week 1 these are the 4 of the 17 projection based values that standout below.

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-116 at DraftKings)

I still can't believe you can get a 1.5 pass TD over for Lamar Jackson after his 41 TDs last season and the 17 he had in the final 8 games he played in 2023. In a few weeks Lamar will start getting priced like the potential pass TD leader he has been since 2019. He was 14-5 in all games last season over this line. He is projected for 1.9. You can bet Jackson's over at DraftKings, where new users get $300 in bonus bets instantly and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

The Bills first round pick Maxwell Hairston is injured. They brought back Tredavious White (from Baltimore) but he too has a mystery injury to end camp. Meanwhile the Ravens added DeAndre Hopkins and 2nd year WR Tez Walker had aa great camp. Even without Isaiah Likely there should be plenty of wide open end zone targets with so much attention having to be given to the running game.

Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+210 at DraftKings)

Don't let his disastrous playoff game in the cold fool you. Andrews is a scoring machine and still Lamar Jackson's favorite target, especially in the Red Zone. Lamar also likes to specifically target receivers who "need" the ball. Whether it be getting a WR5 like Seth Roberts a TD in 2019 or TE3 Charlie Kolar one after barely playing as a rookie, Lamar cares about his targets.

With no Likely and FB Pat Ricard likely out there's a good chance Andrews will be on the field for 80% of the snaps. He has 25.5% of team rec TDs when he plays and that's with a history of playing 40 to 50% of snaps. Our model line would be +100 so we're getting 2x that payoff.

Derrick Henry Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at Fanatics)

He hit this over on his first touch in Week 4 vs Buffalo. He also went over in the playoff game despite only having 16 carries in a bad weather game. Do not worry at all about age and decline with Henry. I've dusted off old physics textbooks and have done the math that not only has Henry dished out more force than he's ever taken from virtually every tackle, his running style, specifically his tactic of turning his back to the tackler, ends up evenly spreading out the force of the hit evenly across his body on the part of the body that hurts the least. Bet Henry's over at Fanatics Sportsbook, where new users get $100 in FanCash and up to $100 back every football gameday here:

He also doesn't take big hits with the Ravens because the gravity that Lamar has. Henry is fast (outran the Bills secondary) because his legs are long, even for his height.

James Cook Anytime Touchdown (+105 at DraftKings)

The Ravens feel like they "should have" won vs Buffalo partly because Buffalo did not score much in the 2nd half. But they didn't have to score much. Just like KC the year before in the playoffs the Ravens defense did not do well to start games and once their mistakes put them behind the opposing team just had to play conservatively to maintain the lead.

I honestly think that even if Andrews had caught the 2pt conversion Josh Allen would have done, what he couldn't do vs the Chiefs, and scored the game winning FG in regulation. I do believe that the Ravens secondary and pass rush can be scary good... but James Cook, who scored twice and ran for 85 yards on just 13 carries, will have success. I'm not going to buy into a league leader in rushing TDs just dropping his production by 75%. As long as Josh Allen is there as a threat, and doesn't take it himself, Cook will find 'easy' lanes to score.

Three of the four best bets have their best prices at DraftKings at time this is being published. As you know odds are highly fluid so this may not be the case by the time you read this. That said a 3 leg parlay of Cook ATD, Andrews ATD and Lamar Jackson over on passing TDs would pay off at +1083.

Two of the three legs hit in that playoff game. Mark Andrews did not catch a TD (or a 2pt conversion).

Game Cheat Sheet

We use our proprietary AI to review our projection vs our odds partners' best prices. This is a list of other good projection based bets for this game.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS BUFFALO BILLS PLAYER PROPS VALUES
QUARTERBACKS
Josh Allen [30.4] Under 32.5 (-105 MGM) Pass Attempts | Last 19: 11-8
Josh Allen [218] Under 237.5 (-115 MGM) Passing Yards | Last 19: 11-8
Lamar Jackson [1.89] Over 1.5 (-116 DK) Passing TDs | Last 19: 14-5
Lamar Jackson [249] Over 227.5 (-115 MGM) Passing Yards | Last 19: 11-8

RUNNING BACKS
Derrick Henry [106] Over 80.5 (-120 FAN) Rushing Yards | Last 19: 14-5
Derrick Henry [0.77] Yes Anytime TD -140, 58.3% (FD) | Last 19: 15-4
Derrick Henry [118] Over 91.5 (-118 MGM) Rush+Rec Yd | Last 19: 13-6
Ty Johnson [0.22] Yes Anytime TD +800, 11.1% (DK) | Last 20: 5-15
James Cook [0.65] Yes Anytime TD +105, 48.8% (DK) | Last 19: 14-5
Keaton Mitchell [0.13] Yes Anytime TD +1000, 9.1% (FD) | Last 5: 0-5
Ray Davis [0.3] Yes Anytime TD +550, 15.4% (FD) | Last 20: 7-13

RECEIVERS
DeAndre Hopkins [0.29] Yes Anytime TD +450, 18.2% (FD) | Last 19: 5-14
Mark Andrews [0.51] Yes Anytime TD +210, 32.3% (DK) | Last 19: 10-9
Curtis Samuel [0.21] Yes Anytime TD +900, 10% (DK) | Last 17: 3-14
Rashod Bateman [47] Over 35.5 (-115 FAN) Receiving Yards | Last 18: 10-8
Rashod Bateman [0.44] Yes Anytime TD +245, 29% (DK) | Last 18: 10-8

These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game during the 2025 season.   

What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?" These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.