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This isn't your father's Thursday Night Football game.

Often criticized for featuring two teams that aren't ready for primetime, this week's Thursday matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders is the exact opposite. It pits two 1-0 teams that reached the playoffs last year and are built to go even deeper into the postseason this year. In fact, the Packers are +390 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the NFC, behind only the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (+360). The Commanders are the +850 third choice.

Though the calendar still shows September, the stakes of this game could have implications well into January.

"When you have a really good football team coming in here—and we have a primetime game, Thursday Night Football, short week— that automatically ups the level of urgency in regard to just getting not only your body right but your mind [right] to go play ball against a really quality opponent," Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur said earlier this week.

So exactly what's at stake on Thursday night? SportsLine's Inside the Lines team has crunched the numbers.

First, according to the Inside the Lines team, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024, Green Bay and not Philadelphia should be the favorite to win the NFC. The model says that the Packers advance to the Super Bowl 28.1% of the time, slightly more than the Eagles (26.5%). The Buccaneers and Commanders are at 11.3% and 9.5%, respectively.

Why does the model prefer Green Bay over Philadelphia even though the Eagles beat the Packers in the playoffs last season?

"The Packers have an easier schedule [than Philadelphia] going forward since they got one Detroit game out of the way, and they have a third-place NFC schedule," says Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model.

Green Bay hasn't been 2-0 since 2020, but if the Packers win on Thursday, they would have back-to-back wins against two playoff-caliber teams in the NFC one season after going 0-6 against the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. Green Bay also hosts Philadelphia in November.

In addition, the SportsLine team says that no NFL team can improve its chances to make the playoffs with a victory in Week 2 more than Washington. The model gives the Commanders a 74.1% chance to make the postseason entering tonight's game. But with a victory over the Packers, that number improves to 84.2%. By contrast, a loss on Thursday would drop Washington's playoff chances to 67.8%. 

The Commanders are three-point underdogs against Green Bay.

Said Washington coach Dan Quinn, "It's the exact type of matchup that you really want to be in. We're really pumped to get rolling with them too."