Jake Paul faces his toughest test to date as he makes a calculated business decision against Anthony Joshua

Paul's choice to move forward with this fight may have been more motivated by money

As much of the boxing world prepares for Friday's heavyweight showdown between two-time former champion Anthony Joshua and crossover YouTube star Jake Paul, it has been difficult to ignore the repeated chorus of questions surrounding the event. 

Will this be a real fight or is it scripted? Is it even possible Paul lasts more than one round? And, maybe most importantly, why in the heck did Paul agree to do this in the first place? 

To address the former, the eight-round heavyweight bout at the Kaseya Center in Miami (Netflix, 8 p.m. ET) will very much be an officially sanctioned fight by the Florida Athletic Commission, set at a catchweight of 245 pounds to take into account that Paul (12-1, 7 KOs) competed at 200 pounds in four of his last five fights while Joshua (28-4, 25 KOs) weighed in between 250 and 255 pounds in his last five appearances.

Whether or not Paul will make it out of the first round remains an intriguing prop bet considering the 28-year-old, who had no amateur career and turned pro in 2020, has largely competed against a smorgasbord of retired MMA stars, entertainers, journeymen and washed up former champions. Joshua, a 36-year-old native of London who won gold at the 2012 Olympics, is listed as high as a 13-to-1 betting favorite and isn't that far removed from a brutal 2024 knockout win against another aspiring pugilist in former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou. 

Paul accepted the fight against Joshua on relatively short notice after an initial November return at the same arena (also on Netflix) was canceled when 135-pound titleholder Gervonta "Tank" Davis, who has had a litany of legal trouble involving domestic violence, was pulled from the fight after the bad public relations surrounding a civil lawsuit filed by his ex-girlfriend accusing Davis of aggravated battery. 

Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight rules explained: Weight limits, glove size, total rounds and more

Shakiel Mahjouri

But even those boxing fans who have considered Paul's transition into the sport as nothing more than a circus (and have waited breathlessly for the chance to see him one day meet his match via KO) are still having trouble coming to terms with the reality of this fight. 

"I'm about to break the internet over Jake Paul's face," Joshua said when the fight was announced in November. 

In 2024, Paul was heavily criticized for boxing a 58-year-old Mike Tyson and carrying him to a decision in which many speculated whether it was fixed. That was followed by a victory over a 39-year-old, lifeless and completely shot Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. So, how does Paul go from those fights, to signing up to face a boxer in Davis who is 65 pounds lighter than him to now fighting Joshua, who last held a piece of the heavyweight title in 2021? 

Even though Joshua is fresh off of a knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in their 2024 title bout and is considered past the peak of his prime, the 6-foot-6 slugger is built like an NFL linebacker and unquestionably still an elite heavyweight. Joshua is also currently building towards a long-awaited 2026 showdown with fellow former champion Tyson Fury. Paul's decision to accept this fight must mean he's looking to cash himself out, right?

Well, that may be partially true. 

Even though Paul is likely very motivated by the idea of silencing his more traditional boxing critics -- as not just a competent fighter and consistent draw but as a respected promoter alongside co-founder Nakisa Bidarian with Most Valuable Promotions -- the choice he made in taking on such overwhelming odds against Joshua very much appears to be a business decision.

As Zach Arnold of "The MMA Draw" podcast reported this week, MVP's attempt to raise as much as $100 million earlier this year from venture funds in order to directly compete with the sport's elite promotions came up empty, which might have fueled Paul's decision to aggressively chase no-win fights with Canelo Alvarez in May and Joshua in August (before both ultimately fell apart) in order to quickly earn capital. 

MVP has aggressively cornered the market on women's boxing by signing an impressive batch of elite performers over the past year. But a key part of its ability to compete with the rising threat of Saudi Arabian investor Turki Alalshikh comes in the form of its relationship with Netflix, not just to showcase the promotion's roster on the undercard but to present strength to a crossover audience who can stumble into MVP's biggest events without the need of a pay-per-view upcharge. 

After the Davis fight fell apart, Mike Coppinger of "The Ring" reported that Netflix presented Paul with a list of three fighters it would accept as a replacement: welterweight Ryan Garcia (who showed interest but was blocked by promoter Oscar De La Hoya), Terence Crawford (who said yes but not until 2026 and has subsequently retired) and Joshua. Paul also reportedly sent an offer to Ngannou that was turned down. 

The pressure to keep the relationship with Netflix strong may have escalated Paul's need to take on the challenge of someone as dangerous as Joshua even though most assumed Paul's first true fight of consequence would come in the form of a cruiserweight title shot (especially after he signed unified champion Gilberto "Zurdo" Ramirez to fight in the co-main event of Paul's June win over Chavez). 

"When I beat Anthony Joshua, every doubt disappears, and no one can deny me the opportunity to fight for a world title," Paul said. "To all my haters, this is what you wanted."

Paul's toughest test to date previously came in the form of reality TV star and part-time cruiserweight Tommy Fury, the half-brother of Tyson Fury. What made that 2023 fight unique was that it was the first opponent in which Paul didn't hold a significant edge in size, age and boxing experience. Despite dropping Fury in the final round, Paul went on to suffer his lone pro defeat via split decision.

It's also hard to deny just how much customer fatigue likely played a role in Paul's increased ambition in 2026 after too many mismatches with predictable outcomes. While Paul typically talks a big game about his goal of one day becoming a legitimate world champion, the truth is that he has been the face of a resuscitated celebrity boxing movement that might be on its last legs. Sooner or later, he was going to need to jump into the deep end of the pool, regardless of the odds, just to keep up with the changing appetite of his customer base.

"Everyone laughed when Jake Paul said in March that he wanted to fight AJ in 2026," Bidarian said. "Joshua has every advantage in this fight, except one -- the delusional confidence of Jake Paul, and if anyone can shock the world, it's him. This is a global clash between two of the most recognizable figures in the sport, Jake, the face of boxing's new era, and Joshua, the king of U.K. boxing."

Paul, who will be giving up disadvantages of five inches in height and six inches in reach to Joshua, not to mention an even bigger gap in experience and athleticism, would pull off one of the biggest upsets in boxing history should he do what most feel is impossible. It would be even bigger than the upset Ngannou nearly achieved against Tyson Fury in 2023 when he dropped the reigning heavyweight champion and lost by split decision (only to be borderline decapitated by Joshua just five months later). 

Ngannou, who trained to become a pro boxer in France before switching to MMA, at least entered his fight against Joshua with the reputation of having an iron chin and being one of the most devastating strikers in the history of combat sports. Paul, on the other hand, is a very good boxer for a celebrity but nothing more. 

The only lingering question that remains is whether Paul can actually record some form of a moral victory -- for not just himself but in the court of public opinion -- without actually winning the fight.  And Joshua is well aware of the narrative put forth by many fans that if he doesn't knock Paul out in the first round that it's a failure on par with losing. 

"I have those same expectations," Joshua told CBS Sports this week. "I get it."

After years of being perceived as more of a marketer than real boxer, there's likely part of the daredevil persona that fuels Paul that still covets earning the type of street cred within the sport that has alluded him. And if it takes walking into the lion's den and meeting his match against one of the most accomplished heavyweights of this century, it appears Paul is crazy and ambitious enough to chase it.

In a weird way, the fight is reminiscent of the 1995 PPV blockbuster between Mike Tyson, who had just been released from prison, and journeyman heavyweight Peter McNeely. Although McNeely was ridiculed for his thin record and goofy pre-fight rhymes, he did exactly what he said he would by running across the ring at the opening bell and brawling with Tyson until he was dropped twice and ultimately saved when his cornerman entered the ring to stop the fight (which was ruled a disqualification).  

McNeely, who was listed as high as a 23-to-1 betting underdog coming in, may not have come even close to winning the fight but his willingness to go out on his shield in a brave manner while giving himself every chance to win created a level of begrudging respect between him and boxing fans that still exists today. 

After years of feasting on smaller opponents with even less boxing experience than his novice self, Paul is finally ready to put it all on the line in a fight almost no one believes he can win. 

"This isn't an AI simulation, it's judgement day," Paul said. "The torch gets passed and Britain's Goliath gets put to sleep."