2019 NCAA championship: Bracket Voodoo's tips for what you can learn from your March Madness contest for next year
Bracket contests will be decided Monday, but even if you don't win you should pay attention
Phew. It's been a wild ride, and it's not quite over yet. At Bracket Voodoo, we hope you've been enjoying this thrilling tournament as much as we have, although we couldn't blame you if your March Madness pool odds looked something like this:
OMG https://t.co/sGSTaS0Kpg pic.twitter.com/cu7zHXUfFz
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) April 7, 2019
If your bracket is still alive heading into tonight's final matchup, congratulations! If you were knocked out earlier on, here are some lessons to take away from this year's winning brackets to keep filed away for next year:
They Picked Chalk
We projected this to be one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent history, and even with three No. 12 seeds advancing that largely held true. We usually recommend sticking with the favorites in the early rounds and living with the inevitable cinderellas, but this year rewarded bracketers who did so even more than usual with all top 3 seeds advancing to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in a decade. Although this strategy probably didn't win anyone their pool, those who bet big on an underdog reaching the second weekend were likely in a hole going into the Sweet Sixteen. The lesson? Don't outsmart yourself in the first few rounds, and risk losing valuable early-round points.
They Faded Duke
Duke was the top overall seed in the tournament, and most experts and algorithms alike pegged them as the team with greatest chance of cutting down the net. But even with stud freshman Zion Williamson healthy the Blue Devils were never that far ahead of the field, despite the public picking them as such (over a third of brackets picked them to win it all, compared to the 18% championship odds we gave them). Not only did this leave the Blue Devils massively overpicked, but it left Michigan State, a strong No. 2 seed, as a strong value play. To be sure, Duke was just one Kenny Goins 3-pointer away from reaching the Final Four, but that doesn't mean they weren't a bad value pick from the get-go - if Duke advanced out of the East region and you picked Duke, you'd still have to differentiate your bracket in other ways. No strategy is perfect, but this year picking against the overwhelming betting favorite worked out well.
They Hit on Texas Tech or Auburn
If you're in a small pool, just having Virginia in the Finals and Michigan State in the Final Four might have been enough to win. But in medium to large sized contests, you likely needed to hit on at least one of these gambits to come out on top. We identified Texas Tech as one of the top value picks for large pools before the tournament due to their high rating in our power rankings and the public largely betting against them, and Auburn was another strong futures play for similar reasons. Hitting on these types of contrarian picks are crucial to winning a larger pool.
They got lucky
Of course, just deploying the best strategies isn't enough to win a March Madness pool - you also need a little luck. Duke was a missed 3-pointer away from reaching the Final Four, but they were also a few centimeters away from getting knocked out of the Sweet Sixteen. And while Auburn was burned by a last second foul against Virginia, they needed a little free throw luck to even get out of the first round. With seemingly every game coming down to the wire, it's highly unlikely the ball will always bounce your way. But for people who are winning a big pool, it did.
No strategy or algorithm will automatically produce a winning bracket, but these lessons are ones that will give you the best odds of winning your pool in future years. For the last time in 2019, happy Madness!
Dan Loman (@DanLo1108) is the Writer/Editor at bracketvoodoo.com, the world's most advanced NCAA Tournament bracket analysis and optimization engine. Check it out now at www.bracketvoodoo.com















