Bracketology Bubble Watch: Nine teams playing in crucial conference tournament games Friday
Time is running out on teams trying to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee
By
Jerry Palm
•
5 min read
It was a mixed bag of results for the bubble teams Thursday, including a stunner to start the day.
Michigan had Indiana dead to rights, opening up a 17-point lead on the Hoosiers halfway through the second half. Then it all fell apart for the Wolverines. Indiana ratcheted up its defense and harassed Michigan into 10 second half turnovers to fuel a 31-9 run to end the game and the Wolverines' season.
Michigan now sits at 17-14 and hopes the committee will set aside its long, unwritten standard that teams that get at-large bids need to be four games above .500. That was an ugly final impression to make on the committee though. I have the Wolverines out for now, but the bottom of the bracket is pretty soft this year. We might see Michigan still squeeze into it.
In the other "double-bubble" game, Texas A&M sent Florida off to the NIT with an 83-80 overtime win in the SEC Tournament. The Aggies now get a shot at Auburn.
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Virginia Tech jumped on Notre Dame early and led wire to wire in an 87-80 win over the Irish. That is the Hokies' best win of the season. They will now face red hot North Carolina.
Miami got a layup at the buzzer to escape disaster in a 71-69 win over Boston College. The Hurricanes will now face Duke. Miami is one of the teams to win at Duke this season.
Here are the "Last Four In" and "First Four Out" as of Friday morning followed by the bubble teams in action Friday. All times Eastern
| Last Four In | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|
| SMU | 22-7 | 48 |
| Xavier | 18-13 | 40 |
| Rutgers | 18-12 | 77 |
| Texas A&M | 21-11 | 55 |
| First Four Out | Record | NET |
| Indiana | 19-12 | 41 |
| Michigan | 17-14 | 34 |
| VCU | 21-8 | 51 |
| Florida | 19-13 | 58 |
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Bubble teams in action Friday
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| vs. Illinois, 11:30 a.m. in Big Ten Tournament | Big Ten Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Indiana still has a problem with a poor record against the better teams it has played and a poor schedule, especially non-conference. The Hoosiers can erase a lot of those problems with a win over the league champion Illini. | |
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| vs. Auburn, 12 p.m. in SEC Tournament | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Aggies are just 2-9 against Quad 1 opposition, 5-9 when you include Quad 2 and has two bad losses. They have won five straight to put themselves into a position where this game matters. Taking down Auburn not only gives a huge boost to their NCAA Tournament chances, it also hurts Auburn's hopes at a No. 1 seed. | |
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| vs. Fordham, 12 p.m. in Atlantic Ten Tournament | USA, fuboTV (Try for free) -- I think Davidson can be an at-large team if the Wildcats do not win the A-10 Tournament. This league is the only one left that can realistically be a bid-stealer. However, those chances may go away if they take their worst loss of the season against Fordham. | |
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| vs. Rutgers, 2 p.m. in Big Ten Tournament | Big Ten Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The team with the most intriguing tournament resume starts Big Ten Tournament play Friday. Rutgers will be looking for its seventh Quad 1 win against the Hawkeyes, which lit up Northwestern on Thursday for 112 points. If the Scarlet Knights lose, they finish the season 18-13 and probably on their way to the NIT. | |
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| vs. Duke in ACC Tournament, 7 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Hurricanes can punch their ticket with another win over Duke. It is possible that Miami makes the NCAA Tournament even with a loss because a loss to the Blue Devils does not hurt their resume very much. It's a weird resume in that eight of their nine losses have come in Quad 2 and 3 games. | |
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| vs. Tulsa in AAC Tournament, 7 p.m. | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- SMU is among my last four teams into the field entering Friday. The Mustangs are just 6-5 against the top two quadrants, with a win at home over Houston and a sweep of Memphis. The problem is losses to Missouri and Loyola Marymount. They cannot afford to take another Quad 3 loss to Tulsa. | |
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| vs. Richmond, 8:30 p.m. in Atlantic Ten Tournament | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- If the A-10 does have another at-large candidate, it is the Rams. VCU has a strange resume that includes road-and-road splits with Davidson and Dayton. The Rams missed opportunities at bigger wins earlier in the season in close losses to Baylor and UConn. It may be that VCU needs to beat Davison to have an at-large worthy profile, but if the Rams do that, they are the league champ. | |
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| vs. UCF in AAC Tournament, 9 p.m. | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Tigers have been on a roll, winning ten of their last 11 to put themselves in position to creep onto the bracket and give coach Penny Hardaway his first NCAA Tournament appearance. All that good will that Memphis has built up during that streak could disappear with another loss to UCF. | |
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| vs. Virginia Tech in ACC Tournament, 9:30 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Hokies picked up their best win of the season so far in Thursday's victory over Notre Dame, although one could argue that the win at Miami was better. It is, after all, their only Quad 1 win. They will be looking to top that against the Tar Heels, which have been quite a roll since their loss to Pitt. Virginia Tech has great MOV-based metrics, but a resume that does not measure up. A win tonight starts to close that gap. | |
Note – all references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to pre-pandemic tournaments. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.
