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The 2026 College Football Playoff semifinals begin on Thursday with a Fiesta Bowl matchup between the Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels. No. 10 Miami (12-2) has authored a pair of upsets in its CFP run, most recently defeating Ohio State, 24-14, after going on the road to knock off Texas A&M in the first round. Ole Miss (13-1) avenged its lone loss of the season to Georgia by defeating the Bulldogs, 39-34, in the CFP quarterfinals after rolling over Tulane in the first round. The Canes are 3-0, all-time, versus the Rebels, with all three prior matchups coming in Miami.

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The 2026 Fiesta Bowl will be the programs' first meeting since 1951. The Hurricanes are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Ole Miss vs. Miami odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 52.5. Before making any Miami vs. Ole Miss picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine expert, Tom Fornelli, has to say. 

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A CBS Sports writer since 2010, the entertaining Fornelli is perhaps best known for his college football expertise. Fornelli co-hosts the popular Cover 3 Podcast and appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ. Fornelli's dedication to analysis of all levels of college football has helped him go 8-2 (+615) on his last 10 picks in Miami games. Anyone who has followed him could be way up.

Now Fornelli has set his sights on Ole Miss vs. Miami and just locked in his picks and CFP predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Fornelli's picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Miami vs. Ole Miss:

Ole Miss vs. Miami spread

Miami -3.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Ole Miss vs. Miami over/under

52.5 points

Ole Miss vs. Miami money line 

Miami -165, Ole Miss +138

Ole Miss vs. Miami picks

See picks at SportsLine

Ole Miss vs. Miami streaming 

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Why Ole Miss can cover

The Rebels have a couple of impressive streaks going, starting with them winning five straight versus ACC teams, each of those coming by at least 20 points. Ole Miss has also scored 30-plus in eight straight overall, which is the longest active streak in FBS, as the team is actually averaging more points since Lane Kiffin's departure. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss won a DII national title last year at Ferris State, and he's thrived in the postseason. Chambliss is 6-0 in his NCAA playoffs career, with a staggering 23 total touchdowns compared to just one turnover. He leads an offense which Miami could have problems keeping up with as the Hurricanes' two lowest offensive outputs of the season have come in their last two games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why Miami can cover 

The Canes have won their last four games versus SEC teams, and they are 5-0 ATS this season versus ranked opponents. Miami's defense is as good as anyone's, ranking fourth in the nation in points allowed per game (13.1). It has allowed seven total touchdowns over its last six games, which were all wins, and the team also has three times as many takeaways (12) as giveaways (four) during this stretch. Additionally, Miami can keep Ole Miss' explosive offense on the sideline by attacking the Rebels' defense on the ground and eating up the clock. Just two SEC teams allow more yards per rush (4.2) than Ole Miss, which has allowed an average of 167 rushing yards over its last three games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Miami vs. Ole Miss picks

Fornelli has analyzied Ole Miss vs. Miami and is leaning Under on the total. He's also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. You can see what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Miami vs. Ole Miss, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Ole Miss vs. Miami spread to back, all from the top-ranked expert who is on an 8-2 roll (+615) on picks in Miami games.