Hendon Hooker USATSI Tennessee Volunteer
USATSI

Happy Friday, everybody. I hope your week has gone well. Mine has, but it felt longer than usual. I couldn't figure it out, but on Wednesday night I had this strong sense of how it felt like a Friday. The feeling remained yesterday as well, and then it dawned on me what was happening.

There was football on every night. My sense of time during the fall is dependent on football. With games on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, my mind went into "weekend mode." But it's not the weekend. Or at least it wasn't then. It is now. I think? Yeah, for sure. God, I hope it is. If it isn't, it's going to be really awkward sending out this Football Friday edition of the newsletter.

To what (I hope) is the weekend!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Knicks at 76ers, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

  • Key Trend: The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
  • The Pick: Under 219.5 (-110)

Let me start by saying that I am shocked James Harden has suffered an injury that will cause him to miss a month. That never happens with him! I'm also sure that, given Harden's extreme workout regimen and devotion to the strictest of diets, he will return in peak condition. Sixers fans have nothing to worry about.

OK, seriously, injuries suck, but at least we can take advantage of them tonight. There's a part of me that wonders if the Sixers won't be better off running everything through Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey than they were with Harden involved, but while that remains to be seen, I do expect we'll see this team improve defensively without Harden loafing around on the court for 37 minutes.

Jonathan Coachman is joined by Emory Hunt and Chip Patterson and Allan Bell to dish out Friday's best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.  

That's good news for a Sixers team that ranks 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency entering the weekend. Also, while I don't know for certain that it'll be the case, there's certainly a possibility that not having Harden will hurt the Sixers' offensive efficiency (Embiid's gonna have to flop twice as hard to make up for Harden's absence).

If you haven't figured it out yet, while I think Embiid is incredible, and I love Tyrese Maxey, on the whole I find this Sixers team to be incredibly annoying.

Anyway, as I was saying, the defense will improve, and the offense could get worse. Some of that is baked into the total already, but I don't think we've seen enough of an adjustment. Particularly with the Sixers hosting a Knicks team that ranks 19th in the league in offensive efficiency.

This one could be sloppy.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model and I are at war tonight, as it has a slight lean toward the over. I guess the question you have to answer is, in the great war to come, will you be on the side of humanity or the machines?

💰The Picks

🏈 College Football

No. 1 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia, Saturday, 3:30 p.m | TV: CBS

The Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (-110) -- The odd thing about this game is that the winner is almost guaranteed a College Football Playoff berth (barring a disastrous upset before the SEC Championship), but losing might not be the worst thing, either. As long as the loser is competitive and wins the rest of its games, it'll have a solid case for a playoff berth. Anyway, that's not why you're here. You want to know who will win and by how much. Well, sorry, I don't know. I can see both teams winning this game. Tennessee's offense could prove too much for the Georgia defense (now without Nolan Smith) to contend with, but Georgia's defense could be the only unit in the country capable of stopping the Vols. I don't know.

The good news is I have a pretty good idea of which team will cover. Georgia's best path to victory involves controlling the ball on offense and limiting big plays on defense. If that happens and Georgia wins, it'll be hard to blow the Vols out unless they turn the ball over repeatedly. Meanwhile, the best way for Tennessee to win is to get off to a fast start, take the energy out of the home crowd and overwhelm an opponent that isn't built to get into shootouts. So Georgia's wins probably aren't blowouts, and if Tennessee wins, well, we don't need the points, do we? I'm taking the Vols and the points, and then I'm sitting down with some popcorn to watch it just like you are.

No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU, Saturday, 7 p.m | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Over 56.5 (-110) -- When you think of the history between these programs, you can't help but think of the 9-6 affair during the 2011 season and the 21-0 Alabama win that followed in the BCS National Championship. What you don't think of are high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs, though that's what we got in 2019 when LSU won 46-41. While I don't think this game approaches 2019 levels, it'll be higher scoring than expected.

Both teams look better on offense than defense. Alabama is the more explosive team with the better quarterback, while LSU has been better at staying "on schedule." But while Alabama has the better QB, I give LSU the edge at receiver. I see Alabama finding success through the air and running back Jahmyr Gibbs having a big game as a dual-threat weapon. I see LSU, which has scored 90 points in the last two weeks, being able to move the ball better than most anticipate. We're not going to crack 80 points as they did in 2019, but I don't think the 60s are out of reach.

Air Force at Army, Saturday, 11:30 a.m | TV: CBS

The Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) -- Service academy Unders are a staple of The Process' diet. It's a simple formula. Service academies run option offenses. That means they run the ball almost exclusively. Air Force has run the ball on 87.7 percent of its snaps this season, which is the highest rate in the nation. Army is second at 84.3 percent. Neither are overly explosive when doing so. That means both teams require a lot of long drives featuring 10 plays or more to score touchdowns. When you run the ball exclusively and need long drives to score, the clock never stops.

You typically don't see more than three possessions in a quarter in these games, and when you limit possessions, you limit scoring opportunities. All of this leads to low-scoring games, and that's why the under has gone 42-9-1 in games between service academies since 2005. They keep lowering the totals for these games, and so far, it hasn't mattered.

🏈 NFL

Geno Smith Getty Seattle Seahawks
Getty Images

Panthers at Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m | TV: Fox

The Pick: Panthers +7 (+100) -- The latest vibe check has me taking the Panthers in this spot. You'd have to be nuts to say the Panthers are better without Christian McCaffery, but there's been a change in the team's demeanor since moving on from Matt Rhule. You wonder if maybe the dark cloud hanging over the team as they waited for their coach to be fired affected their play, and now they're looser. Meanwhile, I don't think the Bengals are as awful as they looked against Cleveland because Ja'Marr Chase is hurt, but it's hard to deny the impact Chase has.

He's the best receiver in football (I'll also hear arguments for Justin Jefferson). When defenses have to worry about him, it makes life easier for everybody else on the Cincinnati offense. Chase is also incredible in "scramble" mode when a play breaks down, and you have to freestyle. Without him, the Bengals' offense has to figure out an entirely new way to play. I'm sure they will, and I think they win this game, but it's not going to be an easy win.

Seahawks at Cardinals, Sunday, 4:05 p.m | TV: Fox

The Pick: Seahawks +2 (-110) -- At any point will the market accept the idea that the Seahawks are good? We're halfway through the season and Seattle is on top of the NFC West. It didn't get there by accident. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 3-5 and their only wins have come against the Saints, Raiders and Panthers. Three teams that are a combined 7-16.

These teams met last month in Seattle and the Seahawks defense held the Cardinals out of the end zone. While the final score was only 19-9, Seattle had five red-zone possessions and scored only one touchdown. If there was a fluke in that game, it was that Seattle didn't win by more, not that it won at all. I like the Seahawks to win, but the better value is the spread.

⚽ Soccer

Ademola Lookman Getty Atalanta Serie A
Getty Images

Atalanta vs. Napoli, Saturday, 1 p.m | TV: Paramount+

The Pick: Atalanta (+235) -- It sounds overly simple, but sometimes betting isn't as difficult as we think. I've had a lot of success betting on soccer simply by looking at the differences in how teams perform at home compared to the road. Unfortunately, in this matchup, it doesn't matter. These teams have been the same everywhere they've gone. Napoli has been the best team in Italy and lost its first match of the season this week, but it was to Liverpool in the Champions League after it had already clinched its group. Atalanta is in second in Serie A, five points behind Napoli. This is a huge match. If Napoli wins, it'll have at least a six-point lead over everybody else in the league.

But you know what? As much as it pains me to say it, because I'm a Napoli supporter and love this team with all my heart, they aren't going without a loss in Serie A. And while the Liverpool loss can be written off by lack of motivation and that Napoli didn't put out its "full-strength" lineup, that doesn't change the fact Napoli's defensive numbers have been trending in the wrong direction lately. Everybody is playing a lot of matches right now, but this will be Napoli's fifth match in 13 days. It's going to catch up to them eventually.

Tottenham vs. Liverpool, Sunday, 11:30 a.m | TV: Peacock

The Pick: Tottenham or Draw (-140) -- Liverpool has played five road matches in the Premier League this season. It hasn't won any of them. There have been two draws (Fulham and Everton) and three losses (Manchester United, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest). It's on the road again this weekend against a Tottenham team that's lost only once in nine home matches across the Premier and Champions League. It's also a Tottenham team getting Dejan Kulusevski back, and he's been an integral part of what Tottenham has done since Antonio Conte arrived. So do you see where I'm going with this pick yet?

Well, surprise! I'm not picking Tottenham to win outright. I'm going to hedge a little because while Tottenham has lost only once in nine home matches, it won its first seven. The last two have been the Newcastle loss and a draw against Sporting in the Champions League. Kulusevski's return is big, but some cracks have begun to form in the foundation. I fully expect Antonio Conte to fix things, but those repairs will likely be made over the World Cup break and in January.

Roma vs. Lazio, Sunday, 12 p.m | TV: CBS Sports Network

The Pick: Roma (+101) -- Another match in which home/road splits don't matter because these teams call the same stadium home! The Derby Della Capitale is one of my favorite Italian rivalries, and this one has a bit more juice. Roma sits in fourth (the final Champions League qualification spot), one point ahead of Lazio in fifth. These matches always mean a lot, but adding in the difference between Champions League and Europa League money literally enhances the stakes (especially with both Inter and Juventus looming right behind them in the table).

Unfortunately for Lazio, this isn't the best timing. It's been stuck in a ditch for the last few weeks. Its 2-0 win over Atalanta two weeks ago felt like a big deal, but Lazio followed it up with a 3-1 loss to Salernitana Sunday and lost to Feyenoord 1-0, knocking it out of the Europa League. Meanwhile, Roma's hot as could be, having won three straight by a combined score of 8-3 since a 1-0 loss to Napoli two weeks ago. We're sticking with the team playing well.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Want some Friday night college football? I have a pick available for the game between Washington and Oregon State available on SportsLine.