Pick Six: Notre Dame-Michigan, West Virginia-Tennessee provide plenty of value in Week 1
It's time to once again #TrustTheProcess as we kick of the 2018 college football season
College football has finally returned, and that can mean only one thing: it's time to start making money. Over the last two seasons in my weekly Pick Six column, I've gone 108-79 (58 percent), and had you bet $100 on every single game I listed, you'd have profited roughly $1,917.20 assuming the standard juice.
Not bad, is it?
Well, we're back for another season with the same goal of turning a profit in mind, and there are plenty of games I see a chance to make some money on during the opening weekend. So let's stop wasting time and get to the picks.
Games of the Week
No. 14 Michigan at No. 12 Notre Dame (Under 46.5): It's great to see these two teams meeting in the regular season once again, and their primetime clash on Saturday night is one of the weekend's biggest games. It's also a game that's hard to get a read on with the spread, as Notre Dame is currently a 1-point favorite. That tells you nearly everything you need to know about the coin-flip nature of this game.
But there's value on the total. Michigan upgraded at quarterback with Shea Patterson, but I still have questions about an offensive line that played a significant role in so many Michigan QBs getting hurt last year. Notre Dame's QB situation is murky, but I'm more concerned about its offensive line after having to replace two top-15 NFL Draft picks on the left side.
Both of these teams have terrific defenses, however, and with concerns about both offenses, I see points at a premium on Saturday night. Notre Dame 21, Michigan 20
No. 6 Washington (+1.5) vs. No. 9 Auburn -- Atlanta: I'm high on Washington this season, as its my pick to win the Pac-12 and earn a College Football Playoff berth. Many of the reasons why I like Washington should show up in this important clash against Auburn in Atlanta on Saturday.
Washington is a talented and experienced team. It has 17 returning starters, including a senior quarterback in Jake Browning, a talented running back in Myles Gaskin and most of its offensive line. It also returns nine players on a stout defense, including most of the defensive line -- and that's where I see Washington's biggest advantage in this game. Auburn has a terrific defensive line as well, but the Tigers have one of the least experienced offensive lines in the country. That's something I expect Washington and its defense to be able to take advantage of. Washington 31, Auburn 27
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 25 LSU -- Arlington, Texas: Miami and LSU kick off the 2018 season with a neutral-site affair at AT&T Stadium. The Hurricanes are set as a 3.5-point favorite over the Tigers with the game's total set at 48. To see which play you should make in this matchup, head over to SportsLine and view my selection. Use code KICKOFF and get the first month of access for just $1!
Lock of the Week
Texas State (+16.5) at Rutgers: You're never comfortable betting on a team that went 2-10 the season before, but don't think of it that way. Instead, remind yourself that you're betting against a team that went 4-8. Besides, we aren't betting on Texas State to beat Rutgers, we just need it to stay within 17 points, and I like the chances of that happening. I don't have enough faith in a Rutgers offense with an inexperienced line and a freshman QB in Art Sitkowski (I believe he was one of the Superfans in those old Saturday Night Live skits) to cover a spread this large. Rutgers 24, Texas State 13
Underdog of the Week
Tennessee (+10) vs. No. 17 West Virginia -- Charlotte: When it comes to early season games, you'll find yourself betting against perceptions of teams rather than the reality of the matchup. That's what I'm doing here. West Virginia is a trendy team this offseason because it has a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback in Will Grier, and people are expecting big things. I don't think the Mountaineers will be bad team, but I'm also not ready to accept that a defense that allowed 31.5 points per game last season with only five returning starters is prepared to take some major step forward. On the other side of that coin, Tennessee is a team that most are down on heading into 2018, and I think that's inflated this line a bit.
Furthermore, since joining the Big 12 in 2012, the Mountaineers have played 10 neutral-site games during both the regular and postseasons. They're 1-9 ATS in those 10 games, and that's a trend that's hard to ignore. West Virginia 30, Tennessee 24
Total of the Week
Utah State at No. 11 Michigan State (Under 51) -- Friday: I'm not as high on Michigan State as many others are heading into this season. I believe its 10-win season in 2017 was a result of some good luck, but that said, this is still a good team and one that will be a contender in the Big Ten. It's also a team with a stout defense that I believe will stifle Utah State. I'm not comfortable enough to lay the points with Sparty, but I do like the under. Michigan State 38, Utah State 7
















